Author Topic: $1 spin When everyone else has gone over.  (Read 1195 times)

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Offline BobJacobsenVer1

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$1 spin When everyone else has gone over.
« on: March 12, 2010, 10:44:15 AM »
I don't know why but this is escaping me and I can't remember seeing it myself, but has anyone ever spun $1 on there one spin if they spin last and everyone else has gone over?

Offline FPGWillyT

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Re: $1 spin When everyone else has gone over.
« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2010, 10:49:06 AM »
I'll set the over/under at 11.5 times

Offline JoePlinko

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Re: $1 spin When everyone else has gone over.
« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2010, 11:22:15 AM »
$500 on the over.
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Offline PriceFanArmadillo

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Re: $1 spin When everyone else has gone over.
« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2010, 11:46:28 AM »
Okay, quick math...something like 6,500 shows, with two Showdowns apiece, so I'm going to use 13,000 Showdowns as our sample size.  

The probability that the first contestant goes over, assuming they spin again on 60 and under, is (1/20)(.05+.1+.15+.2+.25+.3+.35+.4+.45+.5+.55+.6) = ((1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11+12)/400) = 78/400 = .26.

The probability that the second contestant goes over, assuming they spin again on 50 and under, is (1/20)(.05+.1+.15+.2+.25+.3+.35+.4+.45+.5) = 55/400 = .1475.

The probability that the third contestant hits $1 on one spin is obviously .05.

Therefore, the probability of the OP's scenario on any given Showdown is (.26)(.1475)(.05), which comes out to .0019175.  Multiplying this by 13,000, I get that the expected number of times this has happened is 24.9275, or roughly 25, so I'm going to take the over as well.   ;-)
Armadillo is exactly right - ClockGameJohn
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Offline JoePlinko

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Re: $1 spin When everyone else has gone over.
« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2010, 11:51:56 AM »
I almost said that. :-D
"If we want the show to stay on, you have to support the show.  How can we lose an American classic?"  - Roger Dobkowitz

Offline garffreak

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Re: $1 spin When everyone else has gone over.
« Reply #5 on: March 12, 2010, 12:59:59 PM »
This is why I miss my old statistics class.
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