Author Topic: A New Pricing Game - Blackout  (Read 2482 times)

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Offline vadernader

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Re: A New Pricing Game - Blackout
« Reply #15 on: December 15, 2012, 04:35:28 PM »
Well, from a purely mathematical "random" selection standpoint...the probability of winning the main game is:

With 6 black tiles: 3.6%
With 5 black tiles: 10.7%
With 4 black tiles: 21.4%
With 3 black tiles: 35.7%
With 2 black tiles: 53.6%

Now, the probability of getting a specific number of picks is more complicated, but basically

P(X=x) = nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)

Where p = Probability of success, q = probability of failure, n = # of tries, and x = number of correct answers.

In this case, p = 1/3, q = 2/3, n = 4, and x changes.

Getting rid of 0 tiles: 19.8%
Getting rid of 1 tile: 39.5%
Getting rid of 2 tiles: 29.6%
Getting rid of 3 tiles: 9.9%
Getting rid of 4 tiles: 1.2%

Therefore, the probability of:

Getting rid of 0 tiles and winning: 0.7%
Getting rid of 1 tile and winning: 4.2%
Getting rid of 2 tiles and winning: 6.3%
Getting rid of 3 tiles and winning: 3.5%
Getting rid of 4 tiles and winning: 0.6%

Therefore, the overall probability of winning is 15.3%

To put that into perspective, the probability of winning Gas Money from random selection is 20% I'm not fully sure how to calculate Pathfinders probability, so I won't do that. However, I do remember looking at probabilities a while back and finding most car games like Let 'em Roll, Any Number, and such hover around 25% and most in general hover between 20-30%. Even the probability of winning a game like Danger Price is 25%

However, most 2 prizers and quickies are between 25 - 50%, which is why 15.3% is very very hard for a 2 prizer. (And yeah, even though it's not a "quickie" I'm considering it to be one since all the other 2 prizers are)
"Our dilemma is that we hate change and love it at the same time; what we really want is for things to remain the same but get better." - Sydney J. Harris

“For the premiere of season 30, CBS wanted to do a special primetime show. However, they asked that we also add a gimmick or a twist to make it truly special. I came up with the suggestion of taking the show on the road for the first time in its history." - Roger Dobkowitz

Offline 123123123

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Re: A New Pricing Game - Blackout
« Reply #16 on: December 15, 2012, 05:13:33 PM »
^So let me make sure I understand what you're saying:

1. My assumption was incorrect, at least when talking about Gas Money

2. The game is harder than a significant number of car games, let alone 2-prizers

If this is all true, then I guess it could be a deceptive 2-car game, if you make the SP's hard enough and/or the possible choices deceiving.

Giving away one of the prizes for being uncovered seems too easy.  I would say both are uncovered and you win, or you covered up one or two and you lose.

I still feel the contestant should be rewarded for at least figuring out half the puzzle, so instead of the prize, maybe a small cash bonus.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2012, 05:20:56 PM by 123123123 »

Offline vadernader

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Re: A New Pricing Game - Blackout
« Reply #17 on: December 15, 2012, 05:23:34 PM »
^So let me make sure I understand what you're saying:

1. My assumption was incorrect, at least when talking about Gas Money

2. The game is harder than a significant number of car games, let alone 2-prizers

Correct.

If this is all true, then I guess it could be a deceptive 2-car game, if you make the SP's hard enough and/or the possible choices deceiving.

Well, not necessarily really deceiving, just about the same difficulty as 5 Price Tags, maybe a tad easier since TRUE is an option as well as H/L.
"Our dilemma is that we hate change and love it at the same time; what we really want is for things to remain the same but get better." - Sydney J. Harris

“For the premiere of season 30, CBS wanted to do a special primetime show. However, they asked that we also add a gimmick or a twist to make it truly special. I came up with the suggestion of taking the show on the road for the first time in its history." - Roger Dobkowitz

Offline 123123123

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Re: A New Pricing Game - Blackout
« Reply #18 on: December 15, 2012, 06:16:15 PM »
I just want to thank all of you guys for your helpful responses.

EDIT: I almost forgot if someone could come up with a better name, I would love to hear it. I'm just not feeling Blackout
« Last Edit: December 15, 2012, 06:23:49 PM by 123123123 »

Offline vadernader

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Re: A New Pricing Game - Blackout
« Reply #19 on: December 15, 2012, 06:34:50 PM »
Cover Up? :oldlol:
"Our dilemma is that we hate change and love it at the same time; what we really want is for things to remain the same but get better." - Sydney J. Harris

“For the premiere of season 30, CBS wanted to do a special primetime show. However, they asked that we also add a gimmick or a twist to make it truly special. I came up with the suggestion of taking the show on the road for the first time in its history." - Roger Dobkowitz

Offline 123123123

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Re: A New Pricing Game - Blackout
« Reply #20 on: December 16, 2012, 07:53:25 AM »
Has there ever been a contest for new pricing games on this site?