TPiR Recap - 1/9/2018 (TPiR Season 46 Publishers Clearing House Week - Day II)

[Roadgeek Adam]

Episode #8242K (TPiR Season 46 Publishers Clearing House Week - Day 2)
Aired – 1/9/2018; Taped – 12/5/2017
Models: Amber Lancaster, Rachel Reynolds
Microphone Handoff: Amber
First Four Contestant Seating: Left to Right

First IUFB: Pair of Apple Watches (Apple: Smartwatches with 38mm & 42mm cases); ARP: $828 (Overhead)

LAUREN	HAROLD	STACEY	NATHAN
1000	975	1001	1

The winner is...
NATHAN

Nathan is playing Vend-O-Price for a iRobot vacuum (replenishing kit, 4 boxes of sweeping kits), washer and electric dryer with wifi, 65in 4J UHR LED TV with two smart speakers; ARP: $7,830) (Rachel).

CEREAL

8

CHILI

6

BISCOTTI

4

Nathan pulls the lever on the chili shelf, as they think it's the most expensive.

$1.49

8

$11.92

$3.99

4

$15.96

$3.19

6

$19.14

WIN (Total Winnings: $27,830)

Second IUFB: Collection of Designer Sunglasses (Dolce & Gabana: 2 pairs of aviators, round shape frames, cat eye shades for ladies); ARP: $970 (Rachel)

LAUREN	HAROLD	STACEY	PATRICIA
980	600	981	650

The winner is...
PATRICIA

Patricia is playing SAFECRACKERS for a trip to Colorado (RT Coach to Gunnison, CO then to Crested Butte for a 5n stay in a 3-bedroom condo at the Crested Butte Lodge & Hostel + snowboard lesson, lift tickets); snowboard package (ladies package with boots and bindings; ARP: $9,112) (Amber).

ARP of the snowboard is the combination to the safe. The numbers are: 0, 6, 8.

OPEN

LOCK

8

6

0

$860

Third IUFB: Outdoor Swing (Hatteras Hammocks: outdoor swing with wooden frame); ARP: $1,030 (Rachel)

LAUREN	HAROLD	STACEY	SHERRY
600	901	888	900

The winner is...
HAROLD

Harold is playing Spelling Bee for a 2017 Kia Rio LX (1.6L engine, 6-speed AT, FWD; ARP: $16,390) (Amber).

Free picks:

1

19

1) Salad Spinner

Guess: $25

28

Diff: $3

22

2) Lantern

Guess: $15

52

Diff: $37

No Card

3) Flat Iron

Guess: $35

39

Diff: $4

27

$$

$$

$$

$$

Harold bails out with $4,000.

C

A

R

CAR

PAINFUL BAILOUT (Total Winnings: $4,067)

SCSD #1

Contestant	Winnings	Spin 1	Spin 2	TOTAL	RESULT
Harold	$5,097	45	35	.80
Patricia	$10,082	85	STAY	.85
Nathan	$28,658	95	–	.95	*SHOWCASE*

Fourth IUFB: Collection of Headphones (808 Audio: 3 pairs of headphones with leather ear muffs, 2 earbuds, 4GB audio player and case); ARP: $510 (Amber)

LAUREN	DANIEL	STACEY	SHERRY
400	402	550	551

The winner is...
DANIEL

Daniel is playing Coming or Going for a trip to Costa Rica (RT Coach to Juanacasta, CR then to Playa del Flaming for a 6n stay all-inclusive stay at the Flamingo Beach Resort and Spa + surf lesson for two) (Rachel).

9	5	2	7	2	5	9
COMING			-or-	GOING

Daniel sets the price to:

			7	2	5	9
COMING			-or-	GOING

ARP: $7,259. WIN!

Fifth IUFB: Grill (Louisiana Grills: Wood-pellet grill with accessories); ARP: $1,586 (Rachel)

LAUREN	ALEXANDRIA	STACEY	SHERRY
1000	950	700	552

The winner is...
LAUREN

Lauren is playing Danger Price for:

1. Motorscooter (Buddy 125 scooter with 125cc engine, CVT) (Amber)
2. Designer Handbags (Teddy Blake New York: 2 satchels, tote, clutch) (Amber)
3. Laptop computer (15.6in display, touchscreen laptop with 8GB RAM, 1TB HD, printer) (Rachel)
4. Sauna (Crystal Saunas: 2-person infared sauna with ergonomic backrest and therapy lights) (Rachel)

$900

HANDBAGS

COMPUTER

SCOOTER

SAUNA

$900

HANDBAGS

COMPUTER

$2599

SAUNA

$900

HANDBAGS

COMPUTER

$2599

$3490

$900

$1902

COMPUTER

$2599

$3490

$900

$1902

$900

$2599

$3490

WIN

The bidding today has been lackluster, so Stacey's still here. Can she avoid the trip to North Arlington, New Jersey?

Sixth IUFB: Camera (27 lens options 16MP camera with wifi); ARP: $700 (Amber)

DEVIN	ALEXANDRIA	STACEY	SHERRY
500	602	601	603

The winner is...
SHERRY

Stacey with bad bidding heads off, while Sherry is playing Card Game for 2017 Ruby Red Ford Focus SE (2L engine, 7-speed AT, FWD) (Rachel).

The starting price is

$15,000

. The target range is

$3,000

Sherry draws a

J♥

.

$16,000

Sherry draws a

7♥

.

$16,700

Sherry draws a

8♥

.

$17,500

Sherry stops at

$17,500

ARP is

$20,540

For a difference of

$3,040

For a result of

LOSS

SCSD #2

Contestant	Winnings	Spin 1	Spin 2	TOTAL	RESULT
Sherry	$700	15	90	1.05	OVER
Daniel	$7,769	85	STAY	.85	*SHOWCASE*
Lauren	$10,477	70	60	1.30	OVER

THE FABULOUS SHOWCASES

Nathan has the honors...

SC1 - Daniel

SLICIN' & DICIN'

• Kitchen (5-burner double oven gas range, side-by-side fridge and ultraquiet dishwasher) (Rachel)
• Trip to Chicago (RT Coach to Chicago, IL for a 5n stay in a cityview deluxe room at the Kinzie Hotel + daily breakfast, 1 pizza tour for 2) (Rachel)
• Boat (Bayliner: Element E16 with 60HP Mercury engine, bilge pump, bikini top with boot, trailer) (Amber)

Bid: $28,222

SC2 - Nathan

HIGH ROLLERS!

• Mediterranean Cruise (RT Coach to Athens, GR for a 7n cruise for Mykonos, Santorini, etc,. + spa treatment each) (Amber)
• 2017 Chevrolet Trax LS (1.4L engine, 6-speed AT, FWD, cargo package) (Rachel)

Bid: $24,500

Daniel

$28,222

TRIP/BOAT

$28,664

$442

TRIP/BOAT

*WIN*
$36,433

Nathan

$24,500

CRUISE/SUV

$32,325

$7,825

CRUISE/SUV

Results: 4 out of 6 (with 1 bailout)
Winnings: $91,447
Biggest Winner: Daniel

This Recap is solely intended for the purpose of Golden-Road.net.
Reproduction of this without authorized consent is prohibited.
Recap produced by Roadgeek Adam
Templates by Visualbasicwizard and WhammyPower788
CSS work provided by cu2010.

[Teddy]

Both car games had painful moments: first, a CAR card revealed in Spelling Bee after Harold had opted to bail out, and then a $40 loss in Card Game; but as for the rest of the show, it was a joy to watch with all of them resulting in wins.

[The Last Outlaw]

That Spelling Bee was painful.  I was not home, so of course I'm gonna get my TPIR results here at Golden-Road.net.  Just reading that Spelling Bee result had me like, "Ooooh, I'm dying!"  $4000 and he had the car BOTH WAYS!  Man, that hurt my soul just thinking about it.  C-A-R and the card that said CAR.  I'm sorry, I'm beating this horse dead, but this is The Price is Right's version of "C'mon Man!"

[plinkoboard]

Painful bailout on Spelling Bee.  I didn't think the lantern would've been that much.  The $40 loss on Card Game ranks among some of the worst losses in history.  Others include at least twice when a person lost by $5, in 1997 when a person overbid by $45 and in 1987 when a person overbid by $17 on an episode where all 5 other games were won.  On a good note though Danger Price got its 1st win of the season.

[RCPlanes59]

Since I forgot to post this yesterday: In Spelling Bee, there are 657,720 combinations of 4 cards, 166,320 of which result in a win. In other words, the contestant had a 25.29% chance of winning the car for an expected value of $4,144.60. In other words, the bailout was actually pretty sound.

EDIT: I wrote a program a while back to calculate the win percentage of Spelling Bee. Here are the results for the other cards:

For 3 picks, game is won 4704 times out of 24360 combinations
For 4 picks, game is won 166320 times out of 657720 combinations
For 5 picks, game is won 5307120 times out of 17100720 combinations

[sideshowPA]

For 3 picks, game is won 4704 times out of 24360 combinations

I'd be interested to see how you got this.
For 3 picks, I believe there are 30C3 combinations = 4,060
I then calculated the win probability if you earn 3 cards, and got about 36%. 
The grab below shows the 3 possibilities: that you get one each of C,A,R - that you get one CAR, and any two other cards, and the rare case that you get CAR, CAR and any 1 other card.  It's also near bed and I goof up sometimes, so feedback is always welcome.