Author Topic: TPiR Recap - 6/6/2018  (Read 2291 times)

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Offline Ton80

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Re: TPiR Recap - 6/6/2018
« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2018, 04:41:01 PM »
Quote from: ooboh
Say, where do you get these stats? Sounds like a website Id like to visit.
No website.  Some time ago, there was a discussion about Magic # and "sideshowPA" questioned whether there was a firm # which would ensure a very large chance of winning.

I was bored and wide awake, so I just went through a few seasons and grabbed the data from the times Magic # was played.  It made for a nice analysis of the games' upper and lower prizes and the "winning range".

The full list is below, including this playing and a few others I missed, as well as a corrected entry (thanks to TinoStar11):

   Date         Bottom End   Top End      Range
10/22/2014       $1,595     $3,295     $1,700
11/21/2014       $1,220     $4,762     $3,542
02/26/2015       $1,598     $5,494     $3,896
03/03/2015       $1,999     $3,298     $1,299
03/09/2015       $1,800     $4,633     $2,833
05/06/2015       $1,800     $4,949     $3,149
09/29/2015       $2,120     $5,409     $3,289
11/04/2015       $2,000     $6,699     $4,699
12/15/2015       $1,389     $4,999     $3,610
01/28/2016       $3,378     $4,632     $1,254
02/19/2016       $1,499     $4,899     $3,400
03/04/2016       $2,782     $5,487     $2,705
04/26/2016       $1,999     $5,400     $3,401
06/13/2016       $2,970     $8,990     $6,020
10/13/2016       $2,435     $5,990     $3,555
01/09/2017       $1,550     $4,045     $2,495
03/01/2017       $1,344     $5,994     $4,650
03/24/2017       $1,345     $4,875     $3,530
05/02/2017       $1,203     $4,089     $2,886
05/31/2017       $2,398     $4,199     $1,801
11/07/2017       $1,869     $4,329     $2,460
01/25/2018       $2,495     $4,999     $2,504
03/30/2018       $1,749     $4,200     $2,451
04/16/2018       $2,300     $4,499     $2,199
05/04/2018       $1,440     $4,312     $2,872
05/23/2018       $1,800     $4,998     $3,198
06/06/2018       $1,720     $5,994     $4,274

Quote from: TinoStar11
It's four times. On that date's playing , the magic # was set at $875 , the lower priced prize was $1999.
Yup.  I had that one wrong.  I've fixed it, for what it's worth.  Thanks!!

At the end of the day, setting the Magic # to $3000 would have gotten a win 26/27 times, or 96.3%.
(Actually, setting the Magic # to anything between $2970 & $3298 would have gotten the win, but as I said before, I like round numbers...)

Quote from: PriceFanArmadillo
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Offline JT

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Re: TPiR Recap - 6/6/2018
« Reply #16 on: June 17, 2018, 07:26:01 AM »
Once again the contestants think the object of the game is to set the Magic # just over the first prize.  To see them surgically set the number at $1096, $1097, $1098 is painful to watch.  Get that thing over $2500 already!!!

I wonder if the Magic # should just be in multiples of $5 or $10.  Do we need it by the dollar?  I think the game would go quicker and the scale would move up faster as well.  (This assumes they want the game to be won more often!)
« Last Edit: June 17, 2018, 07:29:36 AM by JT »

Offline goldroadfanatic

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Re: TPiR Recap - 6/6/2018
« Reply #17 on: June 17, 2018, 04:03:05 PM »
I wonder if the Magic # should just be in multiples of $5 or $10.  Do we need it by the dollar?  I think the game would go quicker and the scale would move up faster as well.  (This assumes they want the game to be won more often!)

For the first five or so years of the game, the Magic # automatically rounded itself to the nearest $10. This was changed to allow for more precision. Also, I would not be surprised if the change was made due to the fact a contestant could lose because the computer rounded the Magic # in such a way that it fell short or exceeded one of the prizes' prices.
"Cherish the past, accept the present, and anticipate the future.  They are listening to feedback wherever feasible, but they can't repeat the past."