Say, where do you get these stats? Sounds like a website I’d like to visit.
No website. Some time ago, there was a discussion about Magic # and "sideshowPA" questioned whether there was a firm # which would ensure a very large chance of winning.
I was bored and wide awake, so I just went through a few seasons and grabbed the data from the times Magic # was played. It made for a nice analysis of the games' upper and lower prizes and the "winning range".
The full list is below, including this playing and a few others I missed, as well as a corrected entry (thanks to TinoStar11):
Date Bottom End Top End Range
10/22/2014 $1,595 $3,295 $1,700
11/21/2014 $1,220 $4,762 $3,542
02/26/2015 $1,598 $5,494 $3,896
03/03/2015 $1,999 $3,298 $1,299
03/09/2015 $1,800 $4,633 $2,833
05/06/2015 $1,800 $4,949 $3,149
09/29/2015 $2,120 $5,409 $3,289
11/04/2015 $2,000 $6,699 $4,699
12/15/2015 $1,389 $4,999 $3,610
01/28/2016 $3,378 $4,632 $1,254
02/19/2016 $1,499 $4,899 $3,400
03/04/2016 $2,782 $5,487 $2,705
04/26/2016 $1,999 $5,400 $3,401
06/13/2016 $2,970 $8,990 $6,020
10/13/2016 $2,435 $5,990 $3,555
01/09/2017 $1,550 $4,045 $2,495
03/01/2017 $1,344 $5,994 $4,650
03/24/2017 $1,345 $4,875 $3,530
05/02/2017 $1,203 $4,089 $2,886
05/31/2017 $2,398 $4,199 $1,801
11/07/2017 $1,869 $4,329 $2,460
01/25/2018 $2,495 $4,999 $2,504
03/30/2018 $1,749 $4,200 $2,451
04/16/2018 $2,300 $4,499 $2,199
05/04/2018 $1,440 $4,312 $2,872
05/23/2018 $1,800 $4,998 $3,198
06/06/2018 $1,720 $5,994 $4,274
It's four times. On that date's playing , the magic # was set at $875 , the lower priced prize was $1999.
Yup. I had that one wrong. I've fixed it, for what it's worth. Thanks!!
At the end of the day, setting the Magic # to $3000 would have gotten a win 26/27 times, or 96.3%.
(Actually, setting the Magic # to anything between $2970 & $3298 would have gotten the win, but as I said before, I like round numbers...)
