Author Topic: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide  (Read 4275 times)

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Offline LiteBulb88

  • 4/15/19
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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #75 on: July 13, 2019, 05:41:48 AM »
(Note: no post tomorrow since it's Sunday.)
Danger Price

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_13.html)

Random fact
This game used to have a pirate themed set. Here's a playing of it:
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIHvqsM7Dp8" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIHvqsM7Dp8</a>

Win-loss record
  • Actual (seasons 29-46): 68-107 (38.86%)
  • What it would be by random chance: 1/4 (25%)

From seasons 32-46, the prize with the danger price was...
  • The prize on the left: 38 playings (24.20%)
  • The second prize from the left: 38 playings (24.20%)
  • The second prize from the right: 39 playings (24.84%)
  • The prize on the far right: 42 playings (26.75%)
Strategy
Know the prices. There's no pattern as to the location of the prize with the danger price or whether that prize is the most expensive, the cheapest, or in between.

Offline LiteBulb88

  • 4/15/19
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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #76 on: July 15, 2019, 04:37:21 AM »
Dice Game

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_15.html)

Random fact
Believe it or not, a contestant did once roll all the numbers in the price of the car in spite of the 1/1296 (0.08%) chance of that happening:
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuEbUtrnt2A" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuEbUtrnt2A</a>

Win-loss record
  • Actual (seasons 29-46): 179-184 (49.31%)
  • What it would be by random chance: 625/1296 (48.23%)
Note: That assumes the digits of the car are equally likely to be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, and that you go with the odds on every roll.

Which digit of the car had which value? (Seasons 40-46)

                              Actual value                 
Digit of car    1       2       3       4       5       6   
 2nd digit    23.21%  16.96%   8.93%  16.07%  14.29%  20.54%
 3rd digit    16.07%  18.75%  13.39%  17.86%  15.18%  18.75%
 4th digit    13.39%  14.29%  18.75%  19.64%  17.86%  16.07%
 5th digit     1.79%  15.18%  16.96%  13.39%  42.86%   9.82%
 Overall      16.07%  18.75%  13.39%  17.86%  15.18%  18.75%


Strategy
When I first saw that the actual win-loss record was just barely better than the random chance record, I figured it would be because the producers were using 1s and 6s all over the place, but this turned out to not be true. It's really more a testament to the fact that the producers can add whatever options they want to turn car pricing into a crap shoot (pun not intended.) So here's the strategy:
  • 2nd digit: The show rarely offers cars less than $15,000, so if the first number is a 1, feel free to say higher for anything you roll besides 6. Yes, that means if you roll a 5 and the first number is a 1, you should seriously consider saying "higher." On the flip side, if the first digit is a 2 and you roll a 2, you should seriously consider saying "lower."
  • 3rd & 4th digits: Go with the odds. Period.
  • 5th digit: Go with the odds unless you roll a 4. Look how often the last digit is 5--by saying "higher" on a 4, you're more likely to win than if you say "lower."

Offline LiteBulb88

  • 4/15/19
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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #77 on: Yesterday at 03:09:41 AM »
Do the Math

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_16.html)

Random fact
Former CBS & Price is Right employee Scott Robinson came up with the concept that would become this game. He is also a frequent poster here and shared the story of how Do the Math came about:


(Sadly, some of the videos and photos that were once in that thread have been lost to time, but it's still a great read.)

Win-loss record
  • Actual (seasons 29-46): 71-46 (60.68%)
  • What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)
Number of times it was correct to...
  • Add: 53 (45.30%)
  • Subtract: 64 (54.70%)
Strategy
Forget the actual prices or the amount of money, this is really a game of which prize is more expensive. If the second prize is more expensive, select "plus"; if it's less expensive, select "minus." And don't forget the trip rule--if you're playing for two trips, whichever destination is farther from Los Angeles is the more expensive trip.
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 03:11:44 AM by LiteBulb88 »

Offline LiteBulb88

  • 4/15/19
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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #78 on: Today at 02:52:29 AM »
Double Cross

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_17.html)

Random fact
In the game's first playing, there was no think music:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_-8ymTxNV0" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_-8ymTxNV0</a>

Win-loss record
  • Actual (seasons 40-46): 62-34 (64.58%)
  • What it would be by random chance: 1/4 (25%)
The correct prices were...
  • At the very top: 7 playings (7.29%)
  • The second from the top: 39 playings (40.63%)
  • The second from the bottom: 41 playings (42.71%)
  • At the very bottom: 9 playings (9.38%)
Strategy
This game inverts the "pick the endpoints" rule--here, it's DON'T pick the endpoints unless you're absolutely sure the first or last price is right. (I guess the producers actually want this game to be won.) Instead, pick one of the middle two possibilities; which one of those to choose comes down to pricing knowledge.

Offline AvsFan

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #79 on: Today at 07:50:14 AM »
I found out some more patterns for Double Cross. Of the 109 playings from its debut in Season 40 to present:
The average prize cost was $3,625. (The average for prize #1 was $3,639; prize #2, $3,611.) The average difference in the ARPs of a given playing was $1,480. When you consider the 4 possible pairs of prices, the game could be won by picking the pair of prices closest together in price 46 times (42.2%), by picking the pair of prices second-closest together 38 times (34.9%), by picking the pair of prices third-closest together 16 times (14.7%), and by picking the pair of prices farthest away in price 9 times (8.3%).

These numbers change a bit if you separate playings for trips and playings without trips.

Playings for 2 non-trip prizes: 97
Playings for 1 trip and 1 regular prize: 1
Playings for 2 trips: 11

Average price for non-trip prize: $3,408
Average difference in price between 2 non-trip prizes: $1,410
Win by picking prices closest together: 42 (43.3%)
Win by picking prices second-closest together: 35 (36.1%)
Win by picking prices third-closest together: 14 (14.4%)
Win by picking prices farthest apart: 6 (6.2%)

Average price for trip: $5,464
Average difference in price between 2 non-trip prizes: $1,912
Win by picking prices closest together: 4 (36.4%)
Win by picking prices second-closest together: 3 (27.3%)
Win by picking prices third-closest together: 1 (9.1%)
Win by picking prices farthest apart: 3 (27.3%)

For all playings, last digit of a prize by frequency: 5 > 9 > 0 > 8 > 3,4 > 6 > 1,7 > 2

In conclusion, if you really donít know what to do, picking one of the two combinations of prices that are closest together is more likely to yield a win- especially if youíre not playing for trips. Besides that, remember that over half of all prizes have ended in the digits 5, 9, or 0.