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Offline jhc2010

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2019, 12:05:07 PM »
Any thoughts on the 4th bidder being careful as to who they one-up?

If the 4th bidder chooses to one-up the 1st bidder, and they’re wrong, there’s a 0% chance they will be the 4th bidder again on the next IUFB.

If the 4th bidder one-ups the 2nd or 3rd bidder and they’re wrong, there’s a good chance they could be the 4th bidder again on the next IUFB.

Early in the show, it would be wise to rarely one-up the 1st bidder since there will be many more chances to get up on stage.

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2019, 05:23:37 PM »
That's a really good point. The key idea there is that the 4th bidder can't make a particular person win, but they can make a particular person lose. So if they're not sure of the price, they shouldn't make the 1st person lose so they have a chance to be the 4th bidder next time. I've added that to my blog.

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #17 on: June 27, 2019, 03:50:41 AM »
The showcases

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_2.html)

Random facts
  • Do NOT call this the showcase showdown!! The showcase showdown refers to the wheel, not the showcase round at the end of the show. There's probably no easier way to make a normally casual, easy-going Price is Right fan suddenly go ballistic than by calling this segment the showcase showdown.
  • The closest difference between the two contestants was $1:
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8G4RpbWsV0" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8G4RpbWsV0</a>
  • In 2008, Terry Kneiss bid perfectly on his showcase. There's a whole documentary about how that happened which I highly recommend.
Who won? (seasons 29-46)
  • The top winner won their showcase 43.09% of the time.
  • The runner up won their showcase 49.98% of the time.
  • A double overbid happened 6.93% of the time.
Pricing patterns
  • Showcases are never below $20,000. (The last time a showcase cost less than $20,000 was in season 42, 5 years ago).
  • The last three digits of the price of each showcase are always between -251 and -999, inclusive. (I believe the last time the last three digits of a showcase's value were between -000 and -250, inclusive, was season 40, 7 years ago. I haven't been able to check this exhaustively, so I welcome correction. But I do know it's been a long time.)
Strategy
While nothing beats knowing the prices of the prizes, you should use that last bullet point above to your advantage. The reason they don't use prices ending between -000 and -250 is believed to be that the producers don't want a contestant to win both showcases by bidding a value that's divisible by $1,000. For example, they don't want bids like $23,000 to win both showcases, so they'll add an excursion to a trip or an option to a car to raise the price of a showcase from $23,123 to $23,452. Thus, the bid of $23,000 doesn't win both showcases. As a result, the last three digits of your bid should never be between -000 and -250, inclusive. So instead of bidding $23,000, bid $23,251. And thus your minimum showcase bid should be $20,251 when you combine the two bullet points in the pricing patterns section above. So to sum up:
  • Your bid should be at least $20,251.
  • The last three digits of your bid should be between 251 and 999 inclusive.

Offline JT

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #18 on: June 27, 2019, 07:25:50 AM »
Thanks for the great stats on the Showcase.  I am thinking the runner up wins more because top winners like to pass the first showcase in hopes of something greater.  As a result, that 2nd showcase may often be harder to price.   

I can't prove it but i believe there was a perfect bid in the early years of the show before the double showcase rule.  The contestant bid the exact price on their showcase:  $2,200.

Wish contestants would stop with the even/'000 bids for sure.

thanks,
JT

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #19 on: June 28, 2019, 04:09:01 AM »
Any Number

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_28.html)

Random fact
In addition to being the first game in alphabetical order, this is the first game that was ever played on the current iteration of the show. You can see it, and the entire first episode of the show, here:
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UpXJTRFQdo" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UpXJTRFQdo</a>
(Note the still picture is of Bonus Game, not Any Number.)

Key Stats
  • Win-loss record (seasons 29-46): 166-285 (36.81%)
  • Chance of winning if you pick numbers completely randomly: 9/35 (25.71%)*
Which digit appears where? (Seasons 40-46)
                 % in 3 digit  % in piggy
Digit  % in car      prize         bank 
  0      16.07       47.62        36.31
  1      45.24        8.93        45.83
  2      44.64       16.67        38.69
  3      58.92       12.50        28.57
  4      39.88       23.81        36.31
  5      29.76       46.43        23.81
  6      50.00       33.33        16.67
  7      35.71       32.14        32.14
  8      40.48       35.71        23.81
  9      39.29       42.86        17.86

Let me explain how to read that table with an example. The first entry, 16.07, means that the number 0 was in the car 16.07% of the time, which is less than 1/6. By random chance, you would expect it to be in the car 40% of the time. (Actually, you could argue that the first digit of the 3 digit prize and the first digit of the piggy bank are never 0, so it should be in the price of the car 50% of the time based on random chance. But I digress.)

The ordering of the piggy bank digits (seasons 40-46):
Order    % 
$3.21  38.69
$3.12  48.81
$2.31   4.76
$2.13   7.14
$1.32   0.00
$1.23   0.60

This table is referring to the ordering of the digits in the piggy bank. "$3.21" means the largest digit that appears in the piggy bank is first, the middle digit is second, and the smallest digit is last; a piggy bank price of $9.42 would fit that example. Similarly, $2.31 means the largest digit is in the middle of the piggy bank, the second largest digit is in the first spot, and the smallest digit is in the last spot; a piggy bank price of $4.92 would fit that example.

Strategy

The strategy comes out of those tables above, along with the paint and fabric protection rule. Cars in Any Number almost always have paint and fabric protection in order that the last number won't be 0. In fact, in those 168 playings of Any Number, the last digit of the car was a 0 eight times. That's less than 1 in every 20 playings. The 5 was the last digit only 11 times. So here is the strategy to this game:
  • Start by trying to find the second digit of the car, as you should be able to get that in just a couple of tries. If the first digit is a 2, go for a 1, 2, or 3 as the second digit if you're not sure.
  • Once you've found that, pick the 3 and the 6 if you haven't already. You have at least a coin flip chance of those being in the car.
  • At this point, you've probably found at least one number in the 3 digit prize and/or the piggy bank. Note the largest digit in the piggy bank is the first digit 87.5% of the time, so if you see _ 6 _ in the piggy bank, pick numbers less than 6. But if you have 6_ _ in the piggy bank, guess numbers greater than 6.
  • If at any point the above tips don't help, and you can't figure out which numbers would appear in the 3 digit prize, then pick the remaining numbers in the order they appear most frequently in the car. That order is 3,6,1,2,8,4,9,7,5,0. But don't just pick them haphazardly in that order--after each digit, look to see if you can apply the piggy bank concept in rule 3 or if you got any clues to what the 3 digit price prize might be.
  • If you can't remember that order, just remember this: don't pick the 5 or the 0. Those are by far the least frequent numbers in the car, which is not surprising, since those are the numbers contestants pick the most frequently thinking they're the last number in the car. But they almost never are.

*I calculated that by enumerating all orderings of choosing the numbers 0-9. Later, I found this mathematical analysis of the game. Thankfully, we both ended up with the same result.

Offline pannoni1

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #20 on: June 28, 2019, 01:56:27 PM »
    • The last three digits of your bid should be between 251 and 999 inclusive.

    Actually, $XX,251 and $XX,749, because a bid ending between 750-999 would cover a portion of the differences in the $XX,000-$XX,250 range.

    As for Any Number, any idea on the percentage that whenever 5 or 0 appears in the price of the car if it's actually the second number in the car? I'd imagine it would appear in that position much more than 3rd-5th unless there was no PFP or other options. One last point of strategy for A# is that the first digit in the three-digit prize will always be between 5 and 9, as I don't believe a sub-$500 middle prize has been offered in awhile.
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    Offline LiteBulb88

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    Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
    « Reply #21 on: June 28, 2019, 02:50:47 PM »
    Actually, $XX,251 and $XX,749, because a bid ending between 750-999 would cover a portion of the differences in the $XX,000-$XX,250 range.

    I thought about this when I first wrote the article, and I realized that if your goal is to DSW, I agree with this. But if your goal is to just win, this isn't necessarily true. Ending your bid in 850 gives you a (very slightly) better chance of winning than ending in 749 unless that extra $101 causes you to go over.

    As for Any Number, any idea on the percentage that whenever 5 or 0 appears in the price of the car if it's actually the second number in the car? I'd imagine it would appear in that position much more than 3rd-5th unless there was no PFP or other options. One last point of strategy for A# is that the first digit in the three-digit prize will always be between 5 and 9, as I don't believe a sub-$500 middle prize has been offered in awhile.

    From seasons 40-46, a 0 appeared in the car price 27 times; 18 of those times, it was the second digit. (All, obviously, occurred when the first digit was a 2.) A 5 appeared in the car price 50 times; it was the second digit 6 times.

    Very good point about the second prize--it hasn't been below $500 since season 42. I'll update my blog with that fact.

    Offline LiteBulb88

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    Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
    « Reply #22 on: June 29, 2019, 03:01:05 AM »
    (Reminder: No post tomorrow since it's Sunday. I'll be back on Monday with Bargain Game!)

    Balance Game
    (Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_58.html)
    Random fact
    This is the second iteration of Balance Game; the first iteration ran from 1984-1985 and was nothing like this one except the fact that scales are involved in the prop. However, that game involved Barker dollars to balance a scale, and thus the Barker dollars (and now Drew dollars) that are supposedly in the bags of the current version are an homage to the 1984 version of the game. Here's a video of the old version:
    <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_L6EalEZGk" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_L6EalEZGk</a>
    Win-Loss record (seasons 34-46)
    (Note the current iteration of Balance Game was introduced in season 34.)
    • Actual: 80-109 (42.33%)
    • What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)
    Number of times when, in order to win, the contestant had to pick...
    • The two largest valued bags: 63 (33.33% of playings)
    • The largest valued bag and the smallest valued bag: 69 (36.51%)
    • The two smallest valued bags: 57 (30.16%)
    Strategy
    Know the price. Those numbers above aren't statistically far enough away from pure randomness to suggest a strategy.

    Offline jhc2010

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    Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
    « Reply #23 on: June 29, 2019, 01:01:29 PM »
    Your stats for the Piggy Bank in Any Number are for seasons 40-46.

    An interesting stat about the piggy bank is that since October 29, 2015, the number before the decimal point is ALWAYS greater than either of the numbers following the decimal point.  So if the two numbers after the decimal point have been filled in, you can deduct that the number before the decimal point will be greater than the greatest digit following the decimal point.

    It is also interesting to note that the first number of the middle prize in Any Number has not been less than 5 since April 23, 2014.  When contestants have the last two numbers filled in of the middle prize, it is wise to choose numbers less than 5 since there is no chance the game will end.

    Online tpir04

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    Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
    « Reply #24 on: June 29, 2019, 01:47:51 PM »
    What insights can you give on >$20K cars? Since the first digit is 1, there is no chance that the second number is 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4. It is entirely possible that those numbers would appear in the piggy bank, but they could also make up the last three digits in the price of the car.

    Say we have this setup:

    CAR:             $19,34_           
    PRIZE:           $    _80
    PIGGY BANK: $    7._6

    REMAINING NUMBERS: 1, 2, 5.

    The car doesn't end with 5 (it goes in the middle prize), so don't pick that. Here's the conundrum: Your stats say it's almost equally likely that the 1 is in the car than it is in the piggy bank! What do we do now?

    Also to dovetail that point, what is the probability of a car price ending in 1?
    « Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 01:50:04 PM by tpir04 »
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    Offline LiteBulb88

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    Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
    « Reply #25 on: July 01, 2019, 03:36:15 AM »
    (Note: I know I have a couple of Any Number questions to respond to. I will get to those later today.)
    Bargain Game
    (Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy.html)

    Random fact
    This game was out of the rotation for 2 years (seasons 38 & 39) while they changed it from Barker's Bargain Bar to just Bargain Game.

    Win-loss record
    • Actual (seasons 29-46): 263-159 (62.32%)
    • What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)
    In order to win, the contestant had to select...
    Pre-refurbishment era (seasons 29-37):
    • The price on the left: 119 playings (48.37%)
    • The price on the right: 127 (51.63%)
    • The smaller bargain price: 186 (75.92%)
    • The larger bargain price: 59 (24.08%)
    Post-refurbishment era (seasons 40-46):
    • The price on the left: 88 playings (49.72%)
    • The price on the right: 89 (50.28%)
    • The smaller bargain price: 82 (46.33%)
    • The larger bargain price: 95 (53.67%)
    Strategy
    Know the prices. You can see why I split the stats up into the pre-refurbishment and post-refurbishment eras. Pre-refurbishment, it was true more than 3 out of 4 times that you had to pick the smaller shown price; however, the producers removed that trend post-refurbishment. In fact, in season 44, the higher bargain price was right 21 out of 27 times; take that season out, and it's basically been 50/50. So it's now become a "know the prices" game. But don't forget the trip rule! If you're playing for two trips that have bargain prices that are about the same, then the location that's farther away from LA is the correct one as it'll be more expensive.

    Offline LiteBulb88

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    Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
    « Reply #26 on: July 01, 2019, 08:58:47 AM »
    An interesting stat about the piggy bank is that since October 29, 2015, the number before the decimal point is ALWAYS greater than either of the numbers following the decimal point.  So if the two numbers after the decimal point have been filled in, you can deduct that the number before the decimal point will be greater than the greatest digit following the decimal point.

    Excellent observation! I've updated my blog post with that fact.

    It is also interesting to note that the first number of the middle prize in Any Number has not been less than 5 since April 23, 2014.  When contestants have the last two numbers filled in of the middle prize, it is wise to choose numbers less than 5 since there is no chance the game will end.

    Thanks! pannoni1 also pointed that out a couple of posts above yours, though not with a date; I've already updated my blog post with that fact :).

    What insights can you give on >$20K cars? Since the first digit is 1, there is no chance that the second number is 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4. It is entirely possible that those numbers would appear in the piggy bank, but they could also make up the last three digits in the price of the car.

    Say we have this setup:

    CAR:             $19,34_           
    PRIZE:           $    _80
    PIGGY BANK: $    7._6

    REMAINING NUMBERS: 1, 2, 5.

    The car doesn't end with 5 (it goes in the middle prize), so don't pick that. Here's the conundrum: Your stats say it's almost equally likely that the 1 is in the car than it is in the piggy bank! What do we do now?

    Also to dovetail that point, what is the probability of a car price ending in 1?


    Based on the rest of your post, I'm going to assume you meant cars <$20k. So three points to respond to here:

    1. The distribution of the numbers in cars that cost strictly less than $20,000:

    Cars with a first digit of 1...
                     % in 3 digit  % in piggy
    Digit  % in car      prize         bank 
      0       7.14       55.95        53.57
      1      35.71       10.71        34.52
      2      52.38       13.10        36.90
      3      50.00       13.10        36.90
      4      45.24       17.86        21.43
      5      36.90       41.67        15.48
      6      47.62       36.90        30.95
      7      34.52       34.52        19.05
      8      46.43       34.52        30.95
      9      44.05       41.67        14.29


    So the 0 drops even further, but the 5 jumps up. Let's remove cars that have a second digit of 5 to see if that changes anything:

    Cars with a 1st digit of 1 and a 2nd digit of anything that's not 5...
                     % in 3 digit  % in piggy
    Digit  % in car      prize         bank 
      0       7.41       55.56        37.04
      1      37.04       11.11        51.85
      2      53.09       12.35        34.57
      3      48.15       13.58        34.57
      4      44.44       17.28        38.27
      5      34.57       43.21        38.27
      6      48.15       37.04        22.22
      7      35.80       35.80        14.81
      8      46.91       33.33        28.39
      9      44.44       40.74        19.75


    So the 5 is back to the 2nd least frequent digit in this case, but it's still a somewhat reasonable option. That surprised me. Of course, that means it's a really bad choice when the car is $20,000+. Here's the distribution for $20,000+ cars:

    Cars with a first digit of 2...
                     % in 3 digit  % in piggy
    Digit  % in car      prize         bank 
      0      25.00       39.29        35.71
      1      57.76        7.14        38.10
      2      36.90       20.24        42.86
      3      67.86       11.90        20.24
      4      34.52       29.76        35.71
      5      22.62       51.19        26.19
      6      52.38       29.76        17.86
      7      36.90       29.76        33.33
      8      34.52       36.90        28.57
      9      34.52       44.05        21.42

    So the 5 is a worse option than the 0 in this case. But, not shockingly, that doesn't apply when the second digit isn't 0...

    Cars with a first digit of 2 and a 2nd digit that's not 0...
                     % in 3 digit  % in piggy
    Digit  % in car      prize         bank 
      0       4.55       50.00        45.45
      1      62.12        4.55        33.33
      2      45.45       16.67        37.88
      3      66.67       13.64        19.70
      4      31.82       30.30        37.88
      5      24.24       53.03        22.73
      6      56.06       25.76        18.18
      7      36.36       27.27        36.36
      8      33.33       39.39        27.27
      9      39.39       39.39        21.21

    Moral: If the first digit is a 2, you should be strongly avoiding the 5 no matter what and avoiding the 0 unless it's the second digit.

    2. How often do cars in end 1 or 2?

    Digit Overall Car <$20k Car>=$20k
    1      5.36%     2.38%     8.33%
    2     14.29%    23.81%     4.76%

    3. What to do in your example? Choose the 2. Cars less than $20,000 end in 2 10 times as often as they end in 1.

    Offline LiteBulb88

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    Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
    « Reply #27 on: July 02, 2019, 04:06:34 AM »
    Bonkers

    (Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_2.html)

    Random fact
    The button the contestant pushes to find out if they are right isn't connected to anything. There's someone backstage watching the locations of the paddles and they manually play the "wrong" or "right" sound when they see the contestant press the button.

    Win-loss record
    • Actual (seasons 29-46): 111-135 (45.12%)
    • What it would be by random chance: N/16, where N is the number of unique guesses the contestant makes in the 30 seconds.
    In order to win, the contestant had to place...
    • All 4 paddles in the "higher" position: 0 playings (0%)
    • Exactly 3 paddles in the "higher" position: 64 (26.02%)
    • Exactly 2 paddles in the "higher" position: 98 (39.84%)
    • Exactly 1 paddle in the "higher" position: 81 (32.93%)
    • All 4 paddles in the "lower" position: 2 (0.81%)
    • The paddles in unknown positions because the prize's price wasn't revealed: 1 (0.41%)
    Strategy
    There is one way many people play this game that drives me, well, bonkers. So everyone, repeat after me: do not look at the audience. I repeat: do NOT look at the audience. One more time:

    DO NOT LOOK AT THE AUDIENCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Got it? You only have 30 seconds and you simply don't have time to decode whatever it is your friend is trying to say. Besides, do you really think your friend knows that the trip to Germany has a price that ends in a 2 rather than a 7? Instead, you need to try as many combinations as possible. The record for most combinations ever tried is 9, which has happened once and was a win; the record for most combinations tried in a loss is 8, which has happened 8 times. Guess what? You can guarantee a win if you know the first digit of the price of the prize and you make 8 attempts! Here are all 8 possible combinations for the last 3 digits:
    • LLL
    • LLH
    • LHL
    • LHH
    • HLL
    • HLH
    • HHL
    • HHH
    L is "lower" and H is "higher." Those are all the possible combinations for the last 3 digits, so if you know the first digit of the prize, or at least know the first digit in the price of the prize is higher or lower than the number shown in the incorrect price, you should win this game every single time. Thus, the idea is to figure out the first digit while George is describing the prize, put the paddle for that in its correct position when the game starts and leave it there, and then try the 8 combinations above for the last three digits.

    (Side note: if you're a math geek, you can think of the above combinations as going through the numbers 0-7 in binary. Think of 0 as "L" and 1 as "H.")

    Addendum: "Go with the odds" recent trend. After I wrote this Bonkers guide but before I posted it, someone posted on golden-road.net about a new pattern emerging in this game. It's simply this: go with the odds. If the wrong digit is 0-4, go higher. If the wrong digit is 6-9, go lower. If it's 5, then it could be either. For example, if the wrong price is 4753, it should take at most two attempts: HLHH and HLLH. This is a recent trend:
    • Season 47: This was always true for every digit (up to June 16 at least).
    • Season 46: This was always true for every digit except the first. There were times the wrong first digit was 6 or 7 and the actual first digit was 8 or 9. But the pattern held for digits 2-4 in every playing.
    • Season 45: This was false plenty of times.
    So this may be a new unwritten rule or it may be a coincidence in the last season or two. I personally would go for the "try every combination" tactic myself, but it's worth continuing to look over the next year or two to see if this continues to be the case.

    Offline Axl

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    Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
    « Reply #28 on: July 02, 2019, 11:55:41 AM »
    Random fact
    The button the contestant pushes to find out if they are right isn't connected to anything. There's someone backstage watching the locations of the paddles and they manually play the "wrong" or "right" sound when they see the contestant press the button.

    That was true when Hope was the Mighty Sound Effects Lady, but I don't believe that's true anymore.  It's now a real button.  There is, of course, somebody monitoring the paddle placement to change the effect from buzz to ding when appropriate, but the contestant button activates the sound.

    Offline jhc2010

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    Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
    « Reply #29 on: July 02, 2019, 02:17:39 PM »
    That was true when Hope was the Mighty Sound Effects Lady, but I don't believe that's true anymore.  It's now a real button.  There is, of course, somebody monitoring the paddle placement to change the effect from buzz to ding when appropriate, but the contestant button activates the sound.
    There now is a white wire on the floor extending from the button podium which leads me to believe the button is now real. In playings early in the game’s existence, the wire is nowhere to be seen.