Author Topic: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide  (Read 253136 times)

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Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #210 on: September 19, 2019, 04:14:48 PM »
That's Too Much!

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_59.html)

Random fact
Bob had contestants shout "That's Too Much!" as enthusiastically as they could. Here's one playing:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqvbUoEI7L4" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqvbUoEI7L4</a>

Win-loss record
  • Actual (seasons 29-47): 119-373 (24.19%)
  • What it would be by random chance:  1/10 (10%)
The correct price to stop at was price #...(seasons 40-47)
  • 1: 0 playings (0%)
  • 2: 0 playings (0%)
  • 3: 70 playings (31.39%)
  • 4: 41 playings (18.39%)
  • 5: 24 playings (10.76%)
  • 6: 21 playings (9.42%)
  • 7: 46 playings (20.63%)
  • 8: 21 playings (9.42%)
  • 9: 0 playings (0%)
  • 10: 0 playings (0%)
Strategy
You don't want to fall for the psychological game of "it doesn't feel right to wait this long" or "it doesn't feel right to stop so soon." The way to do this is to decide on what you believe to be the price of the car before the first price is revealed. Then you won't be afraid to wait until the seventh price or stop at the third price (the two most commonly correct prices). Also note it's never the first, second, ninth, or tenth price. (The second and ninth prices were frequently correct in seasons 37 & 38, but neither has been correct since season 39.) All that said, if you have no idea what the price is, stop at the third price.

Offline Axl

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #211 on: September 19, 2019, 07:34:18 PM »
Also note it's never the first, second, ninth, or tenth price. (The second and ninth prices were frequently correct in seasons 37 & 38, but neither has been correct since season 39.)

Wow... I knew the ol' "That's Two Ninth" setup hadn't been common for a while, but I didn't realize it was completely done away with nearly a decade ago.

Offline Teddy

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #212 on: September 19, 2019, 09:26:07 PM »
For the record, the $549 prize you were referencing in Temptation for Season 40 was actually $559.
IIRC, there has never been a prize with three different digits to choose from in the five-digit format, like the four-digit version had.

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #213 on: September 20, 2019, 10:05:22 AM »
3 Strikes

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_0.html)

Random fact
This game was given a serious overhaul in season 47 to look like something you would see at a baseball stadium. As someone who lived in Boston for 14 years, went to many games at Fenway Park, and even once announced an inning of baseball on the radio, I love the look. You can see it here:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtoWGunan_U" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtoWGunan_U</a>

Win-loss record
  • Actual (seasons 38*-47): 9-33 (21.43%)
  • What it would be by random chance:
    • If you know the price: Exactly 3/8 (37.5%)
    • If you don't know the price at all**: Approx. 14.24%
    • If you know only the first digit of the price**: Approx. 20.79%
* Starting at season 38 as that's when the current rules of the game stabilized.
** Based on simulating the game 10 million times. The simulation chose things randomly but played perfect strategy; for example, it didn't try the same digit in the same place twice and if you tried four digits in one spot and they were all wrong, it would know to place the fifth digit there.

What was the last digit of the car's price? (seasons 40-47)
  • 1: 5 playings (14.71%)
  • 2: 8 playings (23.53%)
  • 3: 6 playings (17.65%)
  • 4: 2 playings (5.88%)
  • 5: 2 playings (5.88%)
  • 6: 7 playings (20.59%)
  • 7: 3 playings (8.82%)
  • 8: 0 playings (0%)
  • 9: 1 playing (2.94%)

Strategy
Ask for a different game. After Drew is done laughing, pray you get really, really, really lucky. I don't have much here except that you should keep very close track of the picks you've made throughout the game so you don't repeat picks and you should assume the last number is NOT 5 or 9.

Offline Briguy

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #214 on: September 20, 2019, 12:30:55 PM »
Pick-a-Pair

(message truncated)

Strategy
The easiest way to play this game is to pick either the two most expensive products or the two cheapest products, whichever is easier for you to deduce. But because they never reveal the prices of more than four items, and usually only reveal only two or three of the prices, I cannot draw any conclusions about which pairs are more or less likely to be correct.

My recommendation: Listen to the descriptions and pay attention to what the products are. Often, there will be at least two non-consumable products -- often, a medical and/or beauty product -- that will more than likely match up. (For instance, on a recent rerun, they had Gold Bond lotion and a hair coloring kit as two of the products. Their prices matched.)

Otherwise, the suggestion to go with what seems to be the most expensive products is a fair one.

Brian

Offline Briguy

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #215 on: September 20, 2019, 12:39:04 PM »
Hot Seat

Strategy
Part 1: Guessing higher/lower. This is tricky because you don't really have much time to think. You have 35 seconds for all 5 items, which is 7 seconds per item, but that doesn't include the time it takes to travel between items. Thus, you need to go with your gut on each prize. If you can, try to make it so you guessed higher 3 times and lower twice or higher twice and lower 3 times, as those are by far the two most common combinations. But you can't go back to a previous prize and you're under time pressure, so don't spend too much brain power keeping track of that.

Before I continue, this is a very well researched and thought out guide to the games. Major props!

My thought on the first part of the game: Much like Race Game, do not look to the audience for help. Because the game is timed, and as you state there is travel time between items and other things, the 35 seconds elapses quickly and there is zero time to waste. Listen carefully to what the small items are and (as you recommend) once presented with the incorrect price use your gut; this is a game of thinking quickly.

Brian

Offline GuyWithFace

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #216 on: September 20, 2019, 01:59:00 PM »
What was the last digit of the car's price? (seasons 40-47)
What about 0?
The above is my opinion and mine alone.

To answer your questions: yes, I am a guy and yes, I have a face. (I also have the occasional spurt of weirdness.)

Quote from: thepriceis_J
People are tired of the f**kery and drama, but if we'd actually talk to each other sometimes instead of a whole bunch of private conversations with other people, it'd go a long way to perhaps fixing the problems most seem to see in the site.

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #217 on: September 20, 2019, 03:46:10 PM »
At first, I thought 0 hadn't been used at all in any prices since season 40, but I checked again and realized it's been used twice from seasons 40-47. It wasn't the last digit either time. I've updated my blog post.

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #218 on: September 20, 2019, 10:23:07 PM »
For the record, the $549 prize you were referencing in Temptation for Season 40 was actually $559.

Thanks! I've updated my blog post and credited you.

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #219 on: September 20, 2019, 10:33:59 PM »
Here's a chart showing the frequencies of the SP prices from seasons 43-47:


And here's a chart showing the frequency of the last digit of the SPs from the same seasons:


As you can see, they like to use prices with uncommon endings: Just 3.5% of SPs used in the last five seasons have ended in 0 or 5. So, it would be better to make guesses that end with other digits.

Thanks!! I'm a little behind on this one, but I've finally updated my Spelling Bee blog post to suggest not ending your SP guesses in 0 or 5, and added a link to your graphs. Great work!
« Last Edit: September 20, 2019, 10:37:05 PM by LiteBulb88 »

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #220 on: September 21, 2019, 09:23:36 AM »
Time i$ Money

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_76.html)

Random fact
This game was completely refurbished and the rules changed in season 43; all the stats in this article are based on the refurbished version only. You can see the debut playing with the original rules here:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHCD1UAP5_8" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHCD1UAP5_8</a>

Win-loss record
  • Actual (seasons 43-47): 4-72 (5.26%)
  • What it would be by random chance: 1/81 (1.23%)
The correct number of items on each platform was...(seasons 43-47)
  • 1/1/3: 7 playings (9.21%)
  • 1/2/2: 23 playings (30.26%)
  • 1/3/1: 5 playings (6.58%)
  • 2/1/2: 24 playings (31.58%)
  • 2/2/1: 16 playings (21.05%)
  • 3/1/1: 1 playing (1.32%)
The correct placement of each product was...(seasons 43-47)
  Original
  position*    <=$2.99  $3-$5.99   $6+ 
Left-most       24.68%   45.45%   29.87%
2nd from left   32.47%   16.88%   50.65%
Center          20.78%   40.26%   38.96%
2nd from right  40.26%   27.27%   32.47%
Right-most      38.96%   29.87%   31.17%

* From the audience's point of view.

Strategy
Mostly know the prices, but a couple of tips can help you here:
  • DO NOT LOOK AT THE AUDIENCE!! You need to make as many guesses as you can; looking at the audience only slows you down.
  • There is always at least one item on each platform. Do not leave any platforms empty.
  • The combinations where one platform has 3 products are far less frequently correct than the ones where no platform has more than 2 products. Don't go for a 3/1/1, 1/3/1, or 1/1/3 combination unless you're reasonably sure of the three products that you think are in the same range.

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #221 on: September 23, 2019, 09:42:12 AM »
(Editor's note: including today, just three games left!)
Triple Play

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_23.html)

Random fact
Triple Play is the only game on the show that has prizes that aren't always described by George. This is because the car is only described by George just before the contestant gives their guess; if the contestant doesn't reach the second or third car, its/their description/s is/are not read.

Win-loss record
  • Actual (seasons 29-47): 13-74 (14.94%)
  • What it would be by random chance: 1/24 (4.17%)
The correct price to choose was...(seasons 40-47)
First car
  • The cheaper price: 7 playings (22.58%)
  • The more expensive price: 24 playings (77.42%)
Second car*
  • The cheapest price: 6 playings (31.58%)
  • The middle price: 10 playings (52.63%)
  • The most expensive price: 3 playings (15.79%)
Third car*
  • The cheapest price: 7 playings (70%)
  • The second cheapest price: 0 playings (0%)
  • The second most expensive price: 3 playings (30%)
  • The most expensive price: 0 playings (0%)
* Only counts playings the contestant reached that car.

Strategy
First car
Select the more expensive price unless you're absolutely sure the cheaper price is correct. The cheaper price hasn't been correct more than once in a season since season 40, and in seasons 44, 45, and 47, the cheaper price was never right.

Second and third cars
Know the prices. The middle price has been the most likely to be correct for the second car, but that's not enough data to be able to confidently say you should pick it. Ditto for the third car--yes, the cheapest price has been correct 70% of the time, but the sample size is far too small to confidently say that's really a pattern and not just a coincidence.

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #222 on: September 24, 2019, 10:57:00 AM »
2 for the Price of 1

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_24.html)

Random fact
This game is occasionally played for cars. Here's an example of one such playing:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2k633EfRtw" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2k633EfRtw</a>

Win-loss record
  • Actual (seasons 29-47): 70-85 (45.16%)
  • What it would be by random chance: 1/4 (25%)
How often each combination was correct (seasons 40-47)
  • All 3 numbers on top were right: 2 playings (2.99%) [none since season 42]
  • 2 numbers on top and 1 on the bottom were right: 33 playings (49.25%)
  • 1 number on top and 2 on the bottom were right: 32 playings (47.76%)
  • All 3 numbers on the bottom were right: 0 playings (0%)
Strategy
If a 0 is an option for the last digit, choose the second digit for free. The last digit has been 0 in every playing of this game except one since season 44, and in that playing, 0 wasn't an option for the last digit. So if 0 is a choice for the last digit, that is NOT the one you want to choose for free. Choose the second digit for free, choose 0 for the last digit, and then you only have to know the hundreds digit of the prize. Regarding the hundreds digit, no prize in this game has been worth less than $500 since season 41, so if you see a choice that's less than 5 for the first digit, it's wrong.

That one playing where 0 wasn't a choice for the last digit was the very last playing of season 47, where the choices were 2 and 5. The 2 was correct. While I hope that was a one-time aberration, my advice is that if 0 is not a choice for the last digit, then you should choose the last digit for free instead of the second digit.

Finally, make sure that your final price has at least one digit from the top and one from the bottom.

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #223 on: September 25, 2019, 09:39:59 AM »
Vend-O-Price

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_25.html)

Random fact
For the first couple of playings of this game, they used the old Penny Ante sound effect when revealing the grocery products. You can see the debut playing of the game here:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAn96mkrYnA" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAn96mkrYnA</a>

Win-loss record
  • Actual (seasons 44-47): 34-33 (50.75%)
  • What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)
The correct shelf to choose was...(seasons 44-47)
  • The top shelf: 18 playings (26.87%)
  • The middle shelf: 27 playings (40.30%)
  • The bottom shelf: 22 playings (32.84%)
Strategy
Much as this is a lame way to end the series, know the prices of the grocery items. But one thing that can help is to think of this game in terms of ratios; for example, if one shelf has twice as many of a product as another shelf, then the item on the shelf with fewer items must be worth at least twice as much as the item on the shelf with more items to be more expensive.

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #224 on: September 25, 2019, 03:50:13 PM »
Conclusion and Index

(Blog post with an index to all the games: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/09/index-of-posts.html)

Random fact
When I started doing this, I never thought I'd make it through all the games without having to take a break at some point. I couldn't have done it without all your feedback and the almost 60,000 views you've given me. Thanks!

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhXjcZdk5QQ" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhXjcZdk5QQ</a>

Win-loss record of me vs. procrastination in this series
  • Actual: 80*-0 (100%)
  • What it would be by random chance**: 1/100 (1%)
* 80 being the total number of articles in this series, excluding the introduction and conclusion.
** Estimate based on my history of procrastination :lol:.
Biggest surprises
In no particular order, here were the biggest surprises I found:
  • The fact that in the One Bids, $1 bids only win about 27% of the time. That's barely better than the 25% probability they'd win by random chance.
  • The fact that in 1/2 Off, if one of the SP prices is odd and the other is even, the odd one is the 1/2 off one 84% of the time. I thought it'd be the other way around, as you can't cut an odd number in half, so I figured the odd one would be right much more often than not. So when the numbers started coming in, I think I shouted a loud "WHAT???" in my apartment. Of course, looking back, I now realize that's because when you take an even number and divide by 2, it'll be odd 50% of the time.
  • The fact that contestants are so bad at Five Price Tags that they'd be better off just guessing everything randomly.
  • The fact that the famed Cover Up strategy we talk about here almost doubles your chances of winning the game.
Final thoughts
Thank you all for reading and commenting on this guide! I plan to keep this up to date with new games or new strategies as they emerge; I hope the moderators will allow new posts in this thread even if it goes stagnant for longer than 30 days.

Most importantly, though, I really hope something I've written helps someone win something on the show. If it does, please drop me a line--I want to hear about it. Good luck at Television City!!