Author Topic: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide  (Read 132887 times)

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Offline JT

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #225 on: September 26, 2019, 07:31:56 AM »
Thank you for this Strategy Guide.  I thoroughly enjoyed it.  Great job!

Offline RatRace10

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #226 on: October 03, 2019, 01:43:12 AM »
Here's some more insights on 10 Chances.

The game has not used a $20K+ car since since January 13, 2015, though it should be self explanatory to not use something other than 1 for the first digit in a guess if there's no 2, and I'm pretty sure they have never put 1 and 2 in the same set of digits when using a <$20K car. They'll typically use a cluster of higher digits to go with the 1 and 0.

The first prize's digit choices almost-always have a 5 (surely so contestants waste a guess on $X5). However, $50 has not been a correct price for the first prize more often than once per season since Season 44. Also, $90 has not been a correct price since March 2015, although 9 is hardly ever a choice.

For the second prize, they have not used anything under $500 (or $510 for that matter) since November 2, 2011, and every playing since Season 43, with only two exceptions (one each in S43 and 44), has had a 5 and/or 9 among the choices, likely to draw non-LFAT contestants into using them as last digits in their guesses.

Here's the breakdown on how 5's and 9's fared for the second prize from Seasons 40-47 (50 playings):

If 5 was a choice...
The price was $5X0: 12 times
The price was $X50: 6 times
There was no 5: 12 times

If 9 was a choice...
The price was $9X0: 4 times
The price was $X90: 3 times
There was no 9: 6 times

However... Since Season 44, they have since lightened up on dud 5's and 9's. In Season 44, 5 was the dud 3 times and 9 was the dud just once. Since Season 45, 5 and 9 have been a dud only one time each.

If both 5 AND 9 were choices...
The price was $950: 2 times
The price was $590: 1 time
The price was $X50: 4 times
The price was $X90: 0 times
The price was $5X0: 0 times
The price was $9X0: 0 times

Additional note: In all Season 42 playings, 9 was never a choice.


In conclusion, should you get to play 10 Chances in the near future...
- DO NOT GUESS ANYTHING NOT ENDING IN ZERO. (but we know everyone will anyway, and the audience will still chant and cheer with approval for guesses ending in 5 or 9 :oldlol:)
- If 5 is a choice for the second prize, try $5X0 before $X50.
- If both 5 and 9 are choices for the second prize, try $X50 or $950 first. 5 will most definitely be in the price in this scenario.
- Don't guess anything under $510 for the second prize.
- Don't guess anything higher than $19,870 for the car.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2019, 01:47:33 AM by RatRace10 »

Offline Teddy

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #227 on: October 12, 2019, 09:40:33 PM »
I thoroughly enjoyed reading this guide, and I strongly suggest that any potential contestants read it before signing up to play.

Offline AvsFan

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #228 on: October 17, 2019, 04:09:02 PM »
A note about Pathfinder, inspired by a playing I recently watched where the contest got to the last digit perfectly but lost by getting the last digit and the subsequent 3 SP guesses wrong: In the last 6 seasons (42-47), there have been 64 playings where all 3 SP prices were revealed, and in only 3 of them- less than 5%- were all the higher prices or all the lower prices were correct. So,

* If there's one SP left and the first two were both higher or both lower, guess the opposite.
* If you're in a situation where you have 2 or more SPs left and you guessed wrong on a 50/50 on the last digit (i.e., you know the last digit, but you need to get a SP right to make it official), if the first one is lower, guess higher for the next two (and vice versa). At least one should be right.

Of course, don't let this statistic get in the way of logic and conventional thinking... if the first two items are lower and the third prize is a Libman mop that's either $10 or $33, break the rule. :P

Offline Briguy

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #229 on: October 21, 2019, 03:19:57 PM »
Great job on the blog! I love everything about it.

Going back to Three Strikes, which you had earlier this year, I wonder what the range of the car prices was? From what I can recall in watching shows and reading recaps, most of the cars were in the $40,000-50,000 range, with some going a few thousand higher or lower in either direction; there were the occasional cards that went $60,000 or more. (This, of course, not accounting for the Dream Car weeks were cars worth more than $100,000 were offered.)

Point being:

* After listening to the car description, pay attention to the numbers Drew presents.
* If one of the drawn digits is a 4 or 5, try that in the first (the 10-thousands) spot first; if both are present among the numbers my gut would tell me one of those two numbers is the 10-thousands digit.
** Same strategy goes if a 6 is among the digits (assuming a 3, 4 and 5 are not among the numbers) ... that will probably be the first digit; if a 4, 5 and 6 are all present, the first number will more than likely not be 6.
* From there, I'd try one of the lower numbers in the second (thousands) position first, and from there fill in the price from there.

Brian

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #230 on: October 21, 2019, 05:03:06 PM »
Here's some more insights on 10 Chances.

Excellent stuff! I've linked to your post from my blog post on 10 Chances.

A note about Pathfinder:

Let me suggest a simple strategy based on your data for the case where you get the last digit wrong but you've gotten no numbers wrong up to that point: guess the higher price for all three items. Per your data, the chances of all three items being lower are about 2.5%*. (Of course, you could also guess the lower price for all three items to get the same result.)

*Assuming the 5% you state where all 3 prizes were higher or lower is split evenly between the "higher" case and the "lower" case.

Going back to Three Strikes, which you had earlier this year, I wonder what the range of the car prices was?

From seasons 40-47, excluding dream cars that were over $100k, here were the prices of cars in 3 Strikes:

$30,000-$39,999: 3 cars [none since season 44]
$40,000-$49,999: 11 cars
$50,000-$59,999: 13 cars
$60,000-$69,999: 2 cars
$70,000-$79,999: 2 cars

So I agree that the first digit is by far most likely to be 4 or 5, and if there is no 4 or 5, then 6 is the next best bet. (Those $30k cars haven't appeared in a while and I doubt they're coming back.)

Offline jhc2010

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #231 on: October 21, 2019, 08:19:06 PM »
Any insights into wheel-spinning strategy? If you spin a 55 and youíre the first spinner, you should spin the wheel trying to avoid the 5 consecutive spaces on the wheel that would put you over.

 5, 100, 15, 80, 35, 60, 20, 40, 75, 55, 95, 50, 85, 30, 65, 10, 45, 70, 25, 90

After spinning a 55 on the first spin, there are 11 bad spaces and 9 good spaces.

If the wheel is spun to avoid that area of the wheel, the contestant still has 9 good spaces and only 6 bad spaces that would put the contestant over.

Any other thoughts on wheel-spinning strategy?

Additionally, there are occasional contestants  that try to aim for a dollar and are often unsuccessful and are booed if they come up short. I donít think this method is a strategy encouraged by the show.

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #232 on: October 22, 2019, 01:20:16 AM »
I very much like the thought, but this is much much harder than it looks on TV. There are no practice spins and the wheel is heavy, so even trying to aim toward (or away from) a specific segment of the wheel is hard. But if you're the contestant, you have nothing to lose by trying, except perhaps some of your dignity if you don't get the wheel all the way around.

Offline jhc2010

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #233 on: October 22, 2019, 09:43:00 AM »
An example is Afshin on Mondayís show. He led off the first SCSD with a dollar spin that took two revolutions or 40 spaces. When he came up for his bonus spin, it was practically identical to the first one, traveling 42 spaces and landing on 15. Iím sure if Afshin wanted to, he could have taken a little off or put a little more on his bonus spin if he wanted to and the wheel would have travelled slightly more or less  than 40 spaces thus not landing in the same spot on the wheel.

After watching the wheel spin for decades, I think most fans of the show would be able to pull off what I described in my previous post to decrease odds of going over. The odds of going over on the second spin would decrease from 55% to 40%.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2019, 09:50:03 AM by jhc2010 »

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #234 on: October 23, 2019, 04:39:31 AM »
Check Game

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_6.html)

<snip>

Due to the fact that they increased the range on Check Game to $8,000 to $9,000, the above article is now out of date. I'll need to see at least a season's worth of data before I can say much about how this will affect the strategy, but I will state one thing: due to the "prize floor" of $5,000 in one prize games, you now should not write the check for more than $3,000.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2019, 04:42:25 AM by LiteBulb88 »