Author Topic: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide  (Read 108833 times)

0 Members and 29 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline SteveGavazzi

  • Director
  • **********
  • Posts: 17283
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #30 on: July 02, 2019, 11:53:34 PM »
If I remember correctly, Bonkers was automated early in Season 42...they actually played it that way with the original button a time or two, but it turned out that its height made it take too long to register as being pressed.
"Every game is somebody's favorite." -- Wise words from Roger Dobkowitz.

Offline LiteBulb88

  • 4/15/19
  • TPiR Alumnus
  • *
  • Posts: 990
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #31 on: July 03, 2019, 04:05:50 AM »
Thanks! I had no idea about the button. I've updated my blog post.

Offline LiteBulb88

  • 4/15/19
  • TPiR Alumnus
  • *
  • Posts: 990
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #32 on: July 03, 2019, 04:06:45 AM »
Bonus Game

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_3.html)

Random fact
This was the second game ever played on the show. You can see the full first episode here:
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UpXJTRFQdo" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UpXJTRFQdo</a>

Win-loss record
  • Actual (seasons 29-46): 103-43 (70.55%)
  • What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)
The bonus was associated with small prize...
  • #1 (top window): 37 playings (25.34%)
  • #2: 42 playings (28.77%)
  • #3: 40 playings (27.40%)
  • #4 (bottom window): 27 playings (18.49%)
Compared to the price shown, the actual price of the small prize was...
  • Higher: 317 small prizes (54.28%)
  • Lower: 267 small prizes (45.72%)
Strategy
Know the prices of the small prizes. You don't get to pick which window you think the bonus will appear in, so it doesn't matter that the bottom window is fairly infrequently the one with the bonus. And the fact that "higher" is right 54.28% of the time isn't far enough from 50/50 to suggest that you should pick that in general. Thus, this is a "know the prices" game.

Offline LiteBulb88

  • 4/15/19
  • TPiR Alumnus
  • *
  • Posts: 990
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #33 on: July 04, 2019, 04:39:06 AM »
Bullseye

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_4.html)

Random fact
When the show first debuted, there was a game called Bullseye that was nothing like this one. Instead, a prize was shown and the contestant had to guess the price. Bob would say "higher" or "lower" depending on whether the actual price was higher or lower. The contestant would guess again. They had a total of 7 guesses to get the price right. That game has the distinction of being the only game ever played on the show that was never won (excluding one-offs, like crossover games from Let's Make a Deal.) Here's a playing:
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CmPDDpkcxI" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CmPDDpkcxI</a>

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46): 159-42 (79.10%)

The contestant won the game by...
  • Getting between $10 and $12: 126 times (79.25% of all wins)
  • Finding the hidden bullseye: 33 times (20.75% of all wins)
Hidden bullseye was behind product #...:
As they don't show where the hidden bullseye is if you win by getting between $10 and $12, I don't have enough data on that to make it meaningful.

How many do you need to get between $10 and $12 of an item?
Item price   # needed
$1.00-$1.20     10
$1.12-$1.33      9
$1.25-$1.50      8
$1.43-$1.71      7
$1.67-$2.00      6
$2.00-$2.40      5
$2.50-$3.00      4
$3.34-$4.00      3
$5.00-$6.00      2

Strategy
It's mostly "know the prices." However, if you want a 60% chance of winning, just randomly pick 3 items and guess 2 of them. (There's never been an item over $6 in the history of the game, so you don't have to worry about going over if you choose 2.) In fact, there's often a greater than 60% chance of winning if you do that because there's usually an item that costs between $5 & $6. My other advice is if you're not sure whether to pick N of an item or N+1 of that item, pick N. (For example, if you're debating between 3 and 4, choose 3.) If you pick too few of an item, you have a chance to win with the hidden bullseye, but if you pick too many, you don't get that chance. That said, this is a game that the producers don't usually try to trap you with, so go with your gut and you should have no problem.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2019, 04:41:29 AM by LiteBulb88 »

Offline tpir04

  • Taking a Bonus Spin
  • *****
  • Posts: 559
  • Double Prices is the BEST game.
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #34 on: July 04, 2019, 09:38:45 AM »
Also worth noting that there has been a pattern of 2-3-4-5-6, IIRC. If you can figure out which number quantity goes with which item, and multiply each pair together, each total will be within $10-12.
CSS: Exacta, 6/3/2019
Season 15 cash earnings: $151,769
Season 16 cash earnings: $???,???
...............................

Why is it that the best threads come and go in the middle of the night while I'm asleep?

Offline TPIRFan2000

  • Taking a Bonus Spin
  • *****
  • Posts: 546
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #35 on: July 04, 2019, 10:37:09 AM »
I'm a bit late in correcting this, but I honestly didn't read through the OP until now, so...

Paint and fabric protection car option rule: If you're playing for a car, listen to the options that George describes. If you hear paint and fabric protection as one of the options, the price will NOT end in a 0 or 5.
Unless it's in 10 Chances or Temptation. :P

Some other car options I've noticed that tend to generate endings that aren't -0 or -5: "etch protection" and "auto armor". And from having built a bunch of cars (mainly for CSS purposes), I've specifically noticed that Hondas and Toyotas can have just about any other option cause a non-0/5 ending.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2019, 10:40:19 AM by TPIRFan2000 »

Offline LiteBulb88

  • 4/15/19
  • TPiR Alumnus
  • *
  • Posts: 990
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #36 on: July 05, 2019, 07:05:42 AM »
Card Game

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_5.html)

Random fact
This game was out of the rotation for almost 3 years (most of season 40, all of season 41, and most of season 42) while it was being refurbished. All stats below are from the post-refurbishment era, and they exclude the two luxury cars Card Game was played for in season 43 (both of which were lost.)

Win-loss record (seasons 42-46): 37-46 (45.68%)

Stats per range...
Range   W-L    W-L %  Avg. diff.*  # overbids
$1,000  2-20   9.09%    $1225           6
$2,000 12-14  46.15%    $1618           4
$3,000 18-12  60.00%    $1401           6
$5,000  5-0  100.00%    $2515           0
   
* Average difference between the car and the contestant's final bid.

Stats per range if we take out the overbids...
Range   W-L    W-L %   Avg. diff.
$1,000  2-14  12.50%     $2297           
$2,000 12-10  46.15%     $1967           
$3,000 18-6   54.55%     $2255           
$5,000  5-0  100.00%     $2515


Bar graphs of the contestant's guesses and the actual prices of the car...

(Note: while the second bar graph above shows that no non-luxury cars over $24,000 were used in Card Game up to and including season 46, they have used a couple of $24,000+ cars in season 47.)

Strategy
I admit I went into this thinking contestants constantly way underbid on the car, and that turned out to be wrong. I'm happy to see that! But as for an actual strategy, the numbers don't present any patterns that I can see other than "know the price." Here are a couple of things that can help, though:
  • As soon as you see the stagehands wheel out Card Game, think about what you think the price of the car is, and stick to it. Then set your desired bid to be that price minus 1/2 the range. For example, if you think the price is $23,000 and the range is $1,000, set your bid to $23,000-1/2*$1,000 = $22,500. I say you should drop by 1/2 the range in case the price you're thinking of is below the price of the car.
  • The temptation in this game is to stop too early because you feel like you just can't keep drawing. But if you draw nothing but 2s and 3s, you need to keep drawing! If you have a specific price in mind you're targeting (see point #1), you're much less likely to fall for the temptation of stopping because it just feels wrong to keep going.
  • If you draw an ace, use it immediately and stop the game. If you followed point #1 above, you already have a price in mind you want to stop at. You gain nothing by waiting to use an ace, and you certainly gain nothing by using the ace to be a specific amount and then continuing to draw.

Offline Flerbert419

  • Double Showcase Winner
  • ******
  • Posts: 2680
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #37 on: July 05, 2019, 09:34:24 AM »
One other important point about Card Game is that the deck with the ranges is not shuffled before the contestant selects his or her amount. Since we don't keep track of where the selected range is in the deck, anecdotally I would say you should pick something from the bottom (furthest from the contestant) since they seem to like to hide the largest amounts down there.

Additionally, depending on what you've already drawn you have about a 30% chance to get something that's going to add $1000. Think about how finicky you want to be and if that amount is worth it or it will push you over your target.
"Drew is the greatest at the show that Drew does...how do we make Bob's show Drew's show?"
~ Mike Richards, Cover Story: The Price is Right, aired June 17, 2018

Offline Tech_Triumph

  • Outside in Line
  • *
  • Posts: 15
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #38 on: July 05, 2019, 09:54:45 AM »
Iím surprised at the winning percentage on this game. Like you said LiteBulb, I am surprised that the underbids.

Looks to me like the key is, draw a high spread card.

Offline tpir04

  • Taking a Bonus Spin
  • *****
  • Posts: 559
  • Double Prices is the BEST game.
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #39 on: July 05, 2019, 10:09:40 AM »
What perfect timing! Yesterday was Card Game's 45th anniversary (7/4/74).
CSS: Exacta, 6/3/2019
Season 15 cash earnings: $151,769
Season 16 cash earnings: $???,???
...............................

Why is it that the best threads come and go in the middle of the night while I'm asleep?

Offline LiteBulb88

  • 4/15/19
  • TPiR Alumnus
  • *
  • Posts: 990
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #40 on: July 06, 2019, 04:11:10 AM »
(A couple of notes: no post tomorrow since it's Sunday. Also, I have some updates to make based on the comments above. I will get to those soon. Please keep the corrections and comments coming!)

Check Game

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_6.html)

Random fact
For whatever reason, this game attracts way more than its fair share of clueless contestants. Here's one example:
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGhy8bnC_jc" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGhy8bnC_jc</a>

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46): 60-94 (38.96%)

Number of prizes that cost...(seasons 43-47)
  • Between $5,000 and $5,999, inclusive: 35 (74.47%)
  • Between $6,000 and $6,999, inclusive: 12 (25.53%)
  • Less than $5,000 or more than $6,999: 0 (0%)
Strategy
Don't write the check for too much. The winning range was upped to $7,000 to $8,000 in season 37. Since then, including season 47, the record of this game has been 25-45 (31.25%). Of those 45 losses, 8 were by writing the check for too little and 37 of those losses were by writing the check for too much. Since the prizes they use in this game are now all between $5,000 and $6,999, there are only three check values you need to remember:
  • Write the check for $1,000 if you think the first digit of the prize is 6.
  • Write the check for $2,000 if you think the first digit of the prize is 5.
  • If you're not sure, split the difference and write the check for $1,500.
To be clear: under no circumstance should you write the check for more than $2,000. And don't be afraid to write it for $1,000--with each passing season, the number of $6,000 prizes is getting closer and closer to the number of $5,000 prizes.

Offline JayC

  • Double Showcase Winner
  • ******
  • Posts: 5006
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #41 on: July 06, 2019, 10:59:34 AM »
I think as long as the range remains $7,000-$8,000 the safest bet would be writing the check between $1,000 and $1,500. Even $1,500 would be pushing it. $1,250 might be the safest amount.

Offline bobbingforapples

  • Outside in Line
  • *
  • Posts: 6
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #42 on: July 06, 2019, 11:11:24 AM »
I just want to thank you for doing this. This will be extremely helpful for potential future contestants.

Offline SuperSweeper

  • Double Showcase Winner
  • ******
  • Posts: 1218
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #43 on: July 06, 2019, 11:36:34 AM »
I think as long as the range remains $7,000-$8,000 the safest bet would be writing the check between $1,000 and $1,500. Even $1,500 would be pushing it. $1,250 might be the safest amount.

This season, the game has been played 10 times. $1,000 and $1,250 would each have a record of 4-6, while $1,500 would have a record of 6-4. Even better, $1,551 would have a record of 8-2.

Offline LiteBulb88

  • 4/15/19
  • TPiR Alumnus
  • *
  • Posts: 990
Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #44 on: July 06, 2019, 02:22:30 PM »
Time to respond to some comments and add a bit more data...

Bullseye
Also worth noting that there has been a pattern of 2-3-4-5-6, IIRC. If you can figure out which number quantity goes with which item, and multiply each pair together, each total will be within $10-12.

This was false as recently as season 46--on the Feb. 13, 2018 playing of Bullseye, there was a grocery item (Good & Plenty candy) costing $1.29, which would have required 8 to be selected to get to $10. That said, I do agree that I haven't seen any case where there were two products that required the same number to be picked to win in at least a couple of years. Of course, this is tough to state with any certainty because they rarely show the prices of the products that weren't chosen.

Card Game
One other important point about Card Game is that the deck with the ranges is not shuffled before the contestant selects his or her amount. Since we don't keep track of where the selected range is in the deck, anecdotally I would say you should pick something from the bottom (furthest from the contestant) since they seem to like to hide the largest amounts down there.

Additionally, depending on what you've already drawn you have about a 30% chance to get something that's going to add $1000. Think about how finicky you want to be and if that amount is worth it or it will push you over your target.

Excellent point about the fact that we don't think the range deck is shuffled (though do we know with absolute certainty it's not shuffled before being brought out on stage?) I absolutely agree about choosing a card near the bottom of that deck and I've added it to my blog post.

What perfect timing! Yesterday was Card Game's 45th anniversary (7/4/74).

Awesome! I totally planned it out that way. Really, I did. (And if you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.) :-P :oldlol:.

Check Game
A friend of mine on Facebook suggested I look at various values of checks to see how often they would have won. I did that and have posted the results on the Check Game page. Long story short, from seasons 43-47, the check value divisible by $100 that would have won the most frequently is $1900 (it would have won 36 of the 47 playings, for a win rate of 76.60%). Not surprisingly, $2,000 and $1,800 are just behind that, and then it drops from there. Now on to the Check Game comments here...

I think as long as the range remains $7,000-$8,000 the safest bet would be writing the check between $1,000 and $1,500. Even $1,500 would be pushing it. $1,250 might be the safest amount.
This season, the game has been played 10 times. $1,000 and $1,250 would each have a record of 4-6, while $1,500 would have a record of 6-4. Even better, $1,551 would have a record of 8-2.

I couldn't have said it better. For what it's worth, the best ranges in season 47 were $1543-$1570 (inclusive) and $1612-$1651 (inclusive). Both had 8-2 records. It's easy to look some of the playings with $6,000+ prices and get scared by them, but even in season 47, there were more prizes between $5,000 and $5,999 than there were prizes between $6,000 and $6,999. (The actual count was 6-4 for those keeping score.)

General comments
I'm a bit late in correcting this, but I honestly didn't read through the OP until now, so...
Unless it's in 10 Chances or Temptation. :P

Some other car options I've noticed that tend to generate endings that aren't -0 or -5: "etch protection" and "auto armor". And from having built a bunch of cars (mainly for CSS purposes), I've specifically noticed that Hondas and Toyotas can have just about any other option cause a non-0/5 ending.

I'll get those games soon enough  :-). And yeah, there are a bunch of ways a car can end in a digit that isn't 0 or 5. I struggle with finding the fine line between "giving the reader enough good information that they can make the correct decision" and "giving the reader so much information that if they end up on stage, there's no way they'll remember it all in the heat of the moment."

I just want to thank you for doing this. This will be extremely helpful for potential future contestants.

Awww...thank you! My hope for this blog is that just one person will be able to say, "I was a contestant on The Price is Right and I won because I followed a tip on Brian's blog." That would make this all worth it to me :).
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 02:27:12 PM by LiteBulb88 »