Author Topic: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide  (Read 132803 times)

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Offline tpir04

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #45 on: July 06, 2019, 02:37:42 PM »
Awesome! I totally planned it out that way. Really, I did. (And if you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.) :-P :oldlol:.

In which case I have a bridge to buy.  ;)

Awww...thank you! My hope for this blog is that just one person will be able to say, "I was a contestant on The Price is Right and I won because I followed a tip on Brian's blog." That would make this all worth it to me :).

And by the way, the tip was, "Know the price."  :D
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 02:46:17 PM by tpir04 »
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Offline JayC

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #46 on: July 06, 2019, 05:18:57 PM »
This season, the game has been played 10 times. $1,000 and $1,250 would each have a record of 4-6, while $1,500 would have a record of 6-4. Even better, $1,551 would have a record of 8-2.

I couldn't have said it better. For what it's worth, the best ranges in season 47 were $1543-$1570 (inclusive) and $1612-$1651 (inclusive). Both had 8-2 records. It's easy to look some of the playings with $6,000+ prices and get scared by them, but even in season 47, there were more prizes between $5,000 and $5,999 than there were prizes between $6,000 and $6,999. (The actual count was 6-4 for those keeping score.)

Admittedly I had mostly the last two playings of the season in mind when I thought $1,000-$1,500, where the prices of the prize were $6,430 and $6,543. There were two other $6,000+ prizes offered, the rest were between $5,388 and $5,723. So yes, $1,500 is likely a safe amount and would only lose if the prize is less than $5,500 (two last season were) or more than $6,500 (only 1 was). The last two prizes were likely a product of end of season budget mode, so if you're playing in the early-mid season it's more likely $1,500-$2,000 is a safe bet and late in the season $1,000-$1,500 is a better bet.

Online TPIRfan#9821

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #47 on: July 06, 2019, 05:29:42 PM »
Since we don't keep track of where the selected range is in the deck, anecdotally I would say you should pick something from the bottom (furthest from the contestant) since they seem to like to hide the largest amounts down there.

I combed through YouTube, and from the 101 Card Game playings since its refurbishment, I found 97 of those games (I couldn't find 2/9/2015, 10/7/2015, 11/10/2015, 12/7/2015). I was able to identify 164 of the cards used (thanks Drew for proving the game is fair on many occasions!), and was able to this chart, which compares the cards from furthest away from the player to closest.

Avg. Value$3,750 $2,714 $2,000 $2,200 $1,889 $2,783 $2,875
# of reveals12213125362316
# of picks31625182384
$1,000 231171953
$2,000 161510452
$3,000 29261288
$5,000 7332153

Yeah, out of what we have seen, it seems like the edges, specifically the edge furthest from the player, yield the highest chances of being a big hit. However, I'll just throw out that the leftmost card across those 97 playings was only picked a solid 3 times, and those yielded 2 $3,000s and 1 $1,000, so unless something happened in those four aforementioned playings, technically no one has picked up the $5,000 from hitting the leftmost card. Even then, I believe there is solid evidence to believe that the cash deck isn't shuffled.

I look forward to seeing the Check-Out data. I remember running the numbers a while back across three seasons and noting that a range of $19.31 to $19.45 would have won 11/16 times, which was significantly higher than how the contestants did.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 05:34:18 PM by TPIRfan#9821 »
Reminding you about 1932... when Richard Dawson was born. I will remember $19.32, even after he Checked-Out. Feud will never be the same without you.

HYO total winnings: $69,829

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Offline Kev347

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #48 on: July 07, 2019, 09:13:39 AM »
This thread is really inspiring some interesting discussion, and I'm looking forward to seeing it continue! I had no idea that they were setting up Bullseye that way (to not have any multiples repeat). DEFINITELY something to be aware of if you go on the show, though. That and a much better, less argumentative Check Game discussion are highlights of this thread so far. You're making me come around on that game a little :) Looking forward to seeing what the rest of the thread entails.

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #49 on: July 08, 2019, 03:22:26 AM »
I combed through YouTube, and from the 101 Card Game playings since its refurbishment, I found 97 of those games (I couldn't find 2/9/2015, 10/7/2015, 11/10/2015, 12/7/2015). I was able to identify 164 of the cards used (thanks Drew for proving the game is fair on many occasions!), and was able to this chart, which compares the cards from furthest away from the player to closest.

That was awesome. Thanks so much for doing that!! Looks like "pick the endpoints" very much applies to that deck. I've updated my Card Game post with your data.

Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #50 on: July 08, 2019, 03:39:24 AM »
Check-Out

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_8.html)

Random fact
This game used to have the coolest calculator ever. You can see a playing with it here:
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVQEb1ejx-o" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVQEb1ejx-o</a>

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46): 75-114 (39.68%)

Correlation between the grocery total and the value of the main prize (seasons 40-46)
  • Overall: 0.11
  • When played for a prize over $15,000 (such as a car or a lot of cash): 0.07
  • When played for a prize less than $15,000: 0.04
Correlation is sometimes known as the R-squared value. The above simply means this: the total of the grocery items has nothing to do with the prize's value. In other words, a higher valued prize doesn't mean the total of the grocery items is any higher or lower than usual.

Bar graph of the grocery totals (seasons 40-46)

Totals that would have won the game the most often (seasons 40-46)
Note: All ranges below are inclusive.
  • $19.75-$19.80: 36 playings (48.65%)
  • $18.25-$18.34, $19.36-$19.45, $19.65-$19.74, and $19.81-$19.85: 35 playings (47.30%)
  • $18.35, $18.41-$18.44, $18.96-$19.15, $19.31-$19.35, and $19.46-$19.64: 34 playings (45.95%)
Strategy
Nothing beats knowing the prices of the grocery items, but there are some key points that can help you here:
  • You can ignore the price of the main prize as the grocery total has nothing to do with the prize value.
  • Only the total counts. So if you think you were way under on one item, feel free to go way over on another item to make up for it.
  • If you're not sure about each individual item but have an idea what the total should be, aim for that total. For example, if you think the total of the items is about $20, guess $4 for each item.
  • If you're completely clueless, aim for a total of $19.75, as that total has been a winning total more often than contestants have actually won the game over the years. In fact, if you want to totally troll the audience and the staff but still quite possibly win, go ahead and price the first item at $19.71 and the other items at 1 penny each. If you thought Philadelphia booed loudly, they got nothing on what the audience will do to you when you price candy at $19.71. You have my full permission to stick your tongue out at them when you win with this strategy. (I should note I spent the first 23 years of my life in the Philadelphia area before anyone complains I'm stereotyping a region I know nothing about.)

Offline Tech_Triumph

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #51 on: July 08, 2019, 07:12:51 AM »
I always wondered why contestants didnít try and hit a total in checkout. 

Iíd love the reaction when a contestant bid $20 on a candy bar.

Offline tpir04

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #52 on: July 08, 2019, 07:30:43 AM »
One other important point: Use the range to your advantage. For example, you are pretty sure that the items equal $24, and are absolutely sure that they do not surpass $25. If you structure your bids to equal $24, add the $2 range (making it $22-$26) and, because you've already eliminated the possibility of the groceries equaling $25 or more, you've just wasted 25% of your range! Instead, try for $22.50. Your range now becomes $20.50-24.50. You've covered your initial guess of $24, plus a bit extra, while narrowing your range on the high side and expanding it on the low side.
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Offline LiteBulb88

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #53 on: July 09, 2019, 03:31:19 AM »
Cliff Hangers

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_9.html)

Random fact #1
In spite of how easy this game is, people have lost it in spectacular fashion. See how Bob handled one of those cases here:
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjR2d5X57iw" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjR2d5X57iw</a>

Random fact #2
The song this game uses is called "On the Franches Mountains" and comes from a collection of Swiss Mountain music. You can hear the whole thing here:
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PidUwgpHOmI" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PidUwgpHOmI</a>

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46): 257-112 (69.65%)

Strategy
20-30-40! No need to bore you with a lot of stats here. The guesses of $20, $30, and $40 (in that order) would have won this game every single time except once in the last 15 years. In fact, on the "super fan" show they did, the producers lampshaded this fact by making the prizes exactly $20, $30, and $40. The only exception I could find had prizes of $10, $20, and $30, and the $10 prize was a Libman mop that had been on the show quite a few times. So unless the first item is a Libman mop, guess $20, $30, and $40, and you'll win every time.

Offline tpir04

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #54 on: July 09, 2019, 09:07:26 AM »
I remember a few years ago they did Big Money Week and played Cliffhangers for $250,000. You won $10K for each step remaining at the end. A young lady walked away with $210,000 by guessing $22, $35, $49 on items worth $25, $35, and $50, respectively. If you followed the 20-30-40 rule, you would've only gotten $50K. So, case in point: what's better, 20-30-40 or 20-30-50?
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Offline 123123123

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #55 on: July 09, 2019, 11:15:12 AM »
Litebulb88, thank you so much for putting in all of this work for such an expansive blog. This is no easy feat.

I dont know how in depth you stats go, but do most of the losses in Check Out come from being consistently over or under (~40 cents) on each item, or from being completely off on a single item (specifically the last one)?

I don't have any data to back it up, but it seems that the final grocery item that has historically been the most expensive of the lot has been even more of an outlier in the last few years. Do you have any info on the variance between the first four groceries and the final one over the years? Once again, thanks for all the info

Offline JayC

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #56 on: July 09, 2019, 03:39:11 PM »
I always wondered why contestants didnít try and hit a total in checkout. 

Iíd love the reaction when a contestant bid $20 on a candy bar.
It's a little surprising no one's tried it. I wonder if the contestant is told off camera they're not allowed and must guess each item's cost individually.

Offline tpir04

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #57 on: July 09, 2019, 03:46:05 PM »
It's a little surprising no one's tried it. I wonder if the contestant is told off camera they're not allowed and must guess each item's cost individually.

It's not surprising that the non-LFAT TPIR viewer wouldn't. After all, the show is called, "The Price is Right", so it would make sense to try and get the prices on the nose, instead of immediately targeting a set total.
CSS: Exacta, 6/3/2019
Season 15 cash earnings: $151,769
Season 16 cash earnings: $62,367
...............................

Why is it that the best threads come and go in the middle of the night while I'm asleep?

Online gamesurf

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #58 on: July 09, 2019, 04:09:50 PM »
There's really no benefit to it--it really doesn't look that impressive if you get it right, and you'd be remembered as a massive overconfident tool if you get it wrong.

Plus you're robbing yourself of the chance to think for a few extra seconds when you're nervous and hyped up on adrenaline. Why try to add them up in your head when you don't have to?
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When you finally get it down so that it looks very very simple, that one has had the most complicated amount of work."

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Offline JayC

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Re: The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide
« Reply #59 on: July 09, 2019, 06:45:05 PM »
There's really no benefit to it--it really doesn't look that impressive if you get it right, and you'd be remembered as a massive overconfident tool if you get it wrong.
Yes, that's the biggest reason to not try it. Also, most who aren't LFaTs likely wouldn't be that familiar with the game and wouldn't come up with that strategy beforehand.