The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide

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Strategy (car pricing portion)

Remember the pick the endpoints rule. Choose the bottom tag and then the top tag. If they're both wrong, then choose the cheapest price left unless the top and bottom tags were the two most expensive prices; if that's the case, then choose the most expensive price left.

From the data you posted in the Car Pricing section of your post, I think this might be one of the few times where pick the endpoints rule shouldn't be the first rule to follow. It seems the "winning price by value" correlation is significantly stronger than the "winning price by position" correlation

You might be better off first picking the cheapest, then second cheapest prices, then the top and bottom spots.

Of course, the top and bottom spots are usually the cheapest, so doesn't really make a difference. 

[LiteBulb88]

Flip Flop

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_22.html)

Random fact

Someone once managed to cheat at this game (or was just totally idiotic) by pressing the button that reveals the price before doing anything else. Not coincidentally, the button to reveal the price has since been moved. You can see it here:

Win-loss record

• Overall (seasons 29-46): 205-227 (47.45%)
• Seasons 29-39: 86-134 (39.09%)
• Seasons 40-46: 119-93 (56.13%)
• Probability of winning by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)

Number of times it was correct to...

Choice   Overall       S29-39        S40-46   
 Flip  134 (31.02%)  52 (23.64%)  82 (38.68%)
 Flop  167 (38.66%)  62 (28.18%) 105 (49.53%)
 Both  131 (30.32%) 106 (48.18%)  25 (11.79%)
("S" stands for "seasons".)

Strategy

You can see why I split the stats into seasons 29-39 & seasons 40-46. Contestants never want to flip & flop, and that was dragging the win percentage of this game way down. So in season 40, the producers must have decided this is a game they generally want to be won and made it so it's quite infrequent that flip & flop is the correct answer. Thus, my strategy is to either flip or flop, depending on what you think the correct first two numbers of the prize are. Note they haven't offered a prize in this game worth less than $5,000 since season 42, so if flipping or not flipping would result in a price less than $5,000, then choose the other option. And in any event, don't flip & flop unless you're somehow absolutely certain.

[LiteBulb88]

And I've had to turn off comments on my blog. I never thought I'd get trolled on a Price is Right blog, but alas, I was wrong... .

[Pikachu732001]

And I've had to turn off comments on my blog. I never thought I'd get trolled on a Price is Right blog, but alas, I was wrong... .

What happened that made you turn off comments?

[LiteBulb88]

Long story short, someone didn't like my writing style and swore at me. When I said he was more than welcome to disagree with me but that I wouldn't tolerate swearing on my blog, that just made him swear more. After I deleted those comments, he said something to the effect of "you deleted my comment? I'm going to make your life a living [nightmare]!" No, I'm not afraid of a stranger on the internet. The problem is starting tomorrow, I'm not going to have internet access from about 8 AM to 4 PM for the next couple of days, and I don't want someone posting stuff like that on my blog without me being able to delete it quickly.

[LiteBulb88]

Freeze Frame

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_92.html)

Random fact

Freeze Frame's price reveal once completely froze:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 130-231 (36.01%)
• Probability of winning by random chance: 1/8 (12.5%)

The correct price was...(seasons 40-46)

• The most expensive price: 17 playings (11.33%)
• The second most expensive price: 32 playings (21.33%)
• The third most expensive price: 45 playings (30.00%)
• The fourth most expensive price: 46 playings (30.67%)
• The fifth most expensive price: 8 playings (5.33%) [none since season 42]
• The sixth most expensive price: 1 playing (0.67%) [season 40]
• The second cheapest price: 1 playing (0.67%) [season 41]
• The cheapest price: 0 playings (0%)
  

Strategy

Pick one of the four most expensive prices. Make sure you choose a price that's at least $5,000--there hasn't been a prize offered in this game worth less than that since season 40. As for which price to choose after you apply those two facts, know the price. If you're completely clueless, go for the third or fourth most expensive choice.

[LiteBulb88]

Gas Money

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_25.html)

Random fact

Gas Money was once played for one of the most valuable prizes in the show's history, an Audi R8. You can see how the contestant did here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 37-46): 12-118 (9.23%)
• Probability of winning by random chance: 1/5 (20%)

The correct price was...(seasons 40-46)

• On the far left: 17 playings (17%)
• Second from the left: 22 playings (22%)
• Dead center: 19 playings (19%)
• Second from the right: 19 playings (19%)
• On the far right: 23 playings (23%)

• The most expensive displayed price: 17 playings (17%)
• The second most expensive displayed price: 18 playings (18%)
• The middle price: 5 playings (5%)
• The second cheapest displayed price: 28 playings (28%)
• The cheapest displayed price: 31 playings (31%)
• Unknown: 1 playing (1%)

Strategy

First off, when the curtain comes up and you see the car, do not look at the board.  Instead, as George is describing the car, think about how much you believe the car costs. You do not want the board to influence you yet! Then before you make your first pick, decide how much the car is worth to you. For example, if you would turn it down completely if you won, then it's worth $0 to you. Or you might try to sell it, in which case a $20,000 car may only be worth $15,000 when you take depreciation and taxes into account. Then start by picking the middle price (middle as in there are two cheaper prices and two more expensive prices, not necessarily the price that's physically in the center)--that's why contestants are so bad at this game. It's a variation of the "pick the endpoints" rule--most contestants think the price has to be somewhere in the middle of the displayed prices and it almost never is. Thus, my advice to decide on a price before looking at the board, and start the game by removing the middle price, price wise.

Once you've done that, now you're going to need that value of how much the car is worth to you. The following table tells you how much your personal value of the car should be to keep playing if you're just picking by random chance. The number on the left is how much cash you have; the number on top is how many picks you've made. A value of "0" for the car means you should always play on because the probabilities state you're likely to win more cash than you would lose by playing on, never mind the value of the car. A value of "N/A" means that combination can't happen--for example, you can't have $1,000 after two picks.

Amt.   After 1  After 2  After 3
$1,000    $0       N/A      N/A
$2,000    $0       N/A      N/A
$3,000    $0       $0       N/A
$4,000    $0      $667      N/A
$5,000    N/A    $1,667     N/A
$6,000    N/A    $2,667   $2,000
$7,000    N/A    $3,667   $4,000
$8,000    N/A      N/A    $6,000
$9,000    N/A      N/A    $8,000


Note you should never bail out after the first pick--even if you get the $4,000 card with your first pick and the car is worth nothing to you, you're more likely to make money than lose money due to having 3 good prices to pick and only one bad one. Also note you should never bail out if the car is worth at least $8,000 to you.

Assuming you don't bail out, what do you do after picking the middle price? This is where having that price in mind before you looked at the prices on the board comes in to play. Now you can start picking the prices that are farthest away from the price you had in mind and zero in from there. That said, if you're completely clueless, or the price you had in mind was way off from anything you see on the board, pick the price that's the cheapest every time. That maximizes your chances of winning, but does not replace knowing the price of the car.

Good luck! This is one of the hardest games on the show to win for a reason.

[Flerbert419]

Although they started to move away from it at the end of last season, all car prices in Gas Money for a number of years ended in 0 or 5 so you could knock out any amount ending in 9.

[LiteBulb88]

Golden Road

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_26.html)

Random fact

This is the first of the "big three" games on the show (the other two being 3 Strikes and Triple Play.) Those games are called the big three because they routinely offer the most expensive prize packages on the show. Here's one example of Golden Road being played for a Corvette:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 16-76 (17.39%)
• Probability of winning by random chance: 1/24 (4.17%)

First prize stats(seasons 40-46)

• Cheaper price was correct: 3 playings (12%)
• More expensive price was correct: 22 playings (88%)

Second prize stats(seasons 40-46)
(Note: these only include playings where the contestant got the first prize right.)

• Cheapest price was correct: 11 playings (52.38%)
• Middle price was correct: 8 playings (38.10%)
• Most expensive price was correct: 2 playings (9.52%)
• Same number was correct for the first and second prizes: 2 playings (9.52%)

Third prize stats(seasons 40-46)
(Note: these only include playings the contestant got the first two prizes right.)

• Cheapest price was correct: 8 playings (57.14%)
• Second cheapest price was correct: 2 playings (14.29%)
• Second most expensive price was correct: 2 playings (14.29%)
• Most expensive price was correct: 2 playings (14.29%)
• The digit that was correct for the last prize was also correct for a previous prize: 6 playings (42.86%)

Strategy

I will break down the strategy by prize. One caution: this game is only played 3-4 times a year, so the sample size for these statistics is quite small. Thus, it's hard to tell if these are really patterns or just quirks of what happens when you apply random chance to a small sample size.

But one strategy I can guarantee: Digits NEVER repeat in the price of the first or second prize (if they did, this would cause you to have one less choice for the second or third prize). They can repeat in the price of the final prize.

• First prize: Pick the more expensive price! The less expensive price hasn't been right since season 44. There also hasn't been a prize for less than $500 in this game since season 38, so if one of the numbers is less than 5, you really know it's going to be the larger number. But unless you have a really good reason to believe the smaller number is correct or the larger number is the same as one of the other digits in the price, go for the larger number.
• Second prize: The key strategy here is to not guess the same digit that was correct for the first prize. It's rare when it's also correct for the second prize; in fact, it hasn't been correct since 42. Further, don't guess the largest digit--as you can see in the stats, it's rare for that to be correct. And finally, don't forget, no two digits in the price of the second prize will repeat. Hopefully, this narrows it down to one choice, but if it doesn't, then you need to know the price.
• Final prize: Things get much trickier here. While digits can repeat in the price in the last price, the 3rd to last digit (the one you're looking for), is never the same as the digit before or after it. For example, if the price is $189,_65 (an actual price from season 43), the digit in the blank won't be 9 or 6. However, the 3rd to last digit can be the same as a digit it's not right next to, so in that example, it could have been a 5--and in fact, it was. After applying that rule, if you're not sure, pick the lowest number--it's right more than half the time. Again, note the sample size is small, so my confidence isn't great that this is a pattern and not just a quirk of random chance. But it's better than absolutely nothing.

[LiteBulb88]

Grand Game

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_48.html)

Random fact

The first Grand Game winner was a rather memorable one:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 139-270 (33.99%)
• Probability of winning by random chance: 1/15 (6.67%)

Item #X was above the target price...(seasons 40-46)

• 1 (left most product): 44 playings (14.10%)
• 2: 46 playings (14.74%)
• 3: 70 playings (22.44%)
• 4: 58 playings (18.59%)
• 5: 51 playings (16.35%)
• 6 (right most product): 43 playings (13.78%)

Strategy

• Forget about the target price. What you're really trying to do is pick out the four cheapest items. So for each of your picks, simply choose what you think the cheapest item is.
• Forget about the bailout. Even if you just pick the last product by random chance, your cash will increase, on average, by $2,333.33.
• "Pick the endpoints" can guide--but not rule--you. Not surprisingly, the left-most and the right-most products are the least frequent products to be over the target price, as contestants don't generally like picking items on the end when given a choice. Note they're not so frequently correct choices compared to the other products that I can say you should always pick them. However, if you're completely clueless, then it's a good place to start.

[LiteBulb88]

(Note: no post tomorrow since it's Sunday.)

Gridlock!

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_97.html)

Random fact

This is the newest game in the pricing game rotation, having debuted in season 46. Thus, I'll be including season 47 statistics in this guide to have some more data to work with.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 46-47): 14-15 (48.28%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)

For the second and third digits, the correct choice was...

• The cheapest pair of digits: 15 playings (51.72%)
• The middle pair of digits: 9 playings (31.03%)
• The most expensive pair of digits: 5 playings (17.24%)

For the fourth and fifth digits, the correct choice was...

• The cheapest pair of digits: 10 playings (34.48%)
• The middle pair of digits: 6 playings (20.69%)
• The most expensive pair of digits: 13 playings (44.83%)

Strategy

Don't forget the usual car pricing rules: other than the first two digits, consecutive digits won't be the same, and if paint and fabric protection is offered, the price won't end in 5 or 0. Otherwise, know the price, as 29 playings isn't a large enough sample size to make any definitive strategical statements. If you really want to go with the stats, pick the cheapest pair for the first choice and the most expensive pair for the second choice, but the fact that those have been correct the most often is just as likely to be a pattern resulting from a small sample size of a random process instead of being a setup favored by the producers.

[Kev347]

A $20,042 car was offered in Gridlock! on the April 5th episode, and a $21,134 car was offered on the May 30th episode, so the "consecutive digits won't be the same" rule doesn't necessarily hold true for this game, which makes sense because it also doesn't hold true for Money Game.

[LiteBulb88]

Good catch--I've updated my blog.

[LiteBulb88]

Grocery Game

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_29.html)

Random fact

There's usually a theme behind the grocery products in this game. One time, they proved they have at least one geek on staff as they went with a popular board game as the theme. See if you can figure out which game it was:

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46): 77-148 (34.22%)

From seasons 32-46, the contestant won the game by using...

• 1 grocery product: 6 times (9.83% of all wins)
• 2 grocery products: 23 wins (37.71% of all wins)
• 3 grocery products: 23 wins (37.71% of all wins)
• 4 grocery products: 8 wins (13.12% of all wins)
• 5 grocery products: 1 win (1.64% of all wins)

Strategy

You do need to know the prices of at least a couple of the items. Then the key is to start expensive and finish cheap. Begin with an expensive item and take 2 of that (be careful about taking 3 as they do sometimes use products over $8). That will usually get you to the $10-$15 range. Then look for a mid-level product around $3-$5, and take 1-2 of that. That should get you close to the $20 mark. Finally, take 1 or 2 of the cheapest item to get you over $20 but not over $22. By saving the cheapest item for last, you can adjust this strategy to fit the actual items you get; however, if you use the cheapest item first and end up at something like $19.50 with only expensive items left you probably can't win the game.

[Kev347]

It's worth adding: We see at least a couple times a season people try to win this game by pretending it's Bullseye and hitting the target in one product. NOT a good idea. DON'T do it. It's about as good an idea as looking at the audience in Bonkers It usually leads to a spectacular flameout, which is very avoidable.