The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide

[RatRace10]

Regarding Money Game, this is how I play along with it at home. My strategy works for nearly every playing, except the occasional "we really want to give this car away" specials.

For the back pair, eliminate anything ending in 0, 5, or 9 (except 05, 09, or 10), along with the season number and any value between 90-99. There's a 9X card in most every playing and rarely is it ever right (although I recall it being right on this season's Kids special).

The back is almost-always the weird-looking cards like 78, 64, 57, etc. Most people lose due to wasting picks on 9X, X0, X5, or X9 cards.

[RatRace10]

Cover Up

• Cars in this game rarely end in 0 or 5. Since season 43, there's never been more than 3 playings of this game in a season where the car ended in a 0 or a 5.

I think everyone is forgetting that 9 falls in this group, too. In Cover Up and other car games (One Away, Pathfinder, Stack, etc), 9 is used as a deceptive last digit choice just as often as 0 and 5 and is wrong just as often.

From Seasons 42-47, these are the number of times these three digits were the correct choice for the last digit:

Zero: 4
Five: 9
Nine: 4

Last time 0 was correct: June 21, 2019
Last time 5 was correct: October 31, 2017
Last time 9 was correct: June 20, 2017


Also worthy of note is that in the first playing of Cover Up in Season 42, the contestant only had three guesses, and used 9, 0, and 5 for the last digit in that order. It came down to the last digit on the final guess, which was 3.

9 is just as uncommon an ending as 0 in Cover Up.

[AvsFan]

Here's a breakdown showing how likely "More" or "Less" was the right choice based on the fake price. This data is from seasons 40-47.



As you can see, you shouldn't be picking "Less" if the fake price is under $1,000. Also, no price over $3,300 has ever been "More".
Interestingly, prices at or just over the four-digit mark seem to be "Less" more often than not.

[LiteBulb88]

I think everyone is forgetting that 9 falls in this group, too. In Cover Up and other car games (One Away, Pathfinder, Stack, etc), 9 is used as a deceptive last digit choice just as often as 0 and 5 and is wrong just as often.

Absolutely agreed--I've added a note on this to my Cover Up article (and credited you, of course.)

Here's a breakdown showing how likely "More" or "Less" was the right choice based on the fake price. This data is from seasons 40-47.

Excellent stuff! I've added this data to my More or Less blog post (and credited you, of course.)

[LiteBulb88]

Most Expen$ive

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_14.html)

Random fact

They sometimes use the announcer George Gray as one of the models in this game. It usually goes well, but not quite always...

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46):  265-227 (53.86%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)

The most expensive prize was #...(seasons 40-46)

• 1: 70 playings (35.71%)
• 2: 56 playings (28.57%)
• 3: 70 playings (35.71%)

Strategy

Mostly know the prices. Don't forget the trip rule--if you're playing for three trips, the destination farthest away from LA is very likely to be the most expensive trip. And if you're completely clueless, pick an endpoint (i.e. pick #1 or #3). But this is a know the prices game.

[Hoop]

LiteBulb88 Price is Right repeated your episode today, August 14.

[LiteBulb88]

Thanks! A couple of people contacted me on Facebook about it yesterday too. I just wish that meant I got a second copy of all the prizes  .

[LiteBulb88]

Now...or Then

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_15.html)

Random fact

There has been an unwritten rule used in this game for a long time: there are exactly 4 items for which "now" is the correct answer and exactly 2 items for which "then" is the correct answer.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 139-57 (70.92%)
• What it would be by random chance: 25/64 (39.06%)

For each product, how often was it "now" or "then"? (seasons 41-46)

Now: 16 playings (50%)
Then: 16 playings (50%)

Now: 20 playings (68.97%)        Now: 21 playings (63.64%)
Then: 9 playings (31.03%)       Then: 12 playings (36.36%)

Now: 22 playings (68.75%)        Now: 20 playings (68.97%)
Then: 10 playings (31.25%)      Then: 9 playings (31.03%)

Now: 25 playings (73.53%)
Then: 9 playings (26.47%)

Strategy

Mostly know the prices, but the following can help you:

• Keep the unwritten rule in mind. There will be four nows and two thens.
• Ask yourself if the product even existed during the "then" timeframe. If it didn't, the correct answer must be "now."
• Most importantly: do not jump across the board, especially if you get one wrong. For example, let's say you start at the top and get it wrong. Do NOT go to the bottom product! Yes, you will need to eventually get that one correct. But if you go straight there and get it wrong, the game is over. Instead, go to the first product clockwise from the top. (Or you can go counter-clockwise; direction doesn't matter.) If you get that right, great! If not, you're still in it. And then keep going one at a time in whichever direction you chose. Why? Because you want to find the two "then" products. So give yourself as many chances as possible to find them. If you do find them, you know everything else must be "now."

[gamesurf]

Slate figured out how to win Now or Then 100% of the time with no knowledge of prices, assuming every playing has 4 NOWs and 2 THENs.

All you need to do is guess “NOW” on 3 items in a row, and then use logic to narrow down the remaining items based on where the other THENs might be.

[LiteBulb88]

Slate figured out how to win Now or Then 100% of the time with no knowledge of prices, assuming every playing has 4 NOWs and 2 THENs.

Good catch--thanks! I've added that to my blog.

[LiteBulb88]

One Away

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_16.html)

Random fact

In one of the earliest playings of this game, Bob really wanted to hear a little horn during the part of the game the price is supposed to revealed by sliding the bar at the bottom of the prop. See how the staff handles it here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 149-227 (39.63%)
• What it would be by random chance: 5/32 (15.63%)
• What it would be if you know the first digit but choose everything else by random chance: 5/16 (31.25%)

Was the correct choice higher or lower? (seasons 40-46)

   Digit 1      Digit 2      Digit 3      Digit 4      Digit 5
#  L     H      L     H      L     H      L     H      L     H
1 N/A   N/A   61.8% 38.2%  33.3% 66.7%    0%   100%  41.7% 58.3%
2 100%   0%   94.1%  5.9%   80%   20%   66.7% 33.3%   75%   25%
3 98.6% 1.4%   75%   25%   72.7% 27.3%  62.5% 37.5%   50%   50%
4 N/A   N/A   85.7% 14.3%  73.9% 26.1%   68%   32%   91.7%  8.3%
5 N/A   N/A    50%   50%   30.8% 69.2%  45.8% 54.2%   75%   25%
6 0%    100%  42.9% 57.1%  35.7% 64.3%  69.2% 30.8%  35.7% 64.3%
7 N/A   N/A   28.6% 71.4%   15%   85%   37.5% 62.5%  21.7% 78.3%
8 N/A   N/A   22.9% 77.1%  33.3% 66.7%   50%   50%   63.6% 36.4%
(The left most column above refers to the wrong digit shown at the beginning of the game. N/A means that digit was never an option--in other words, the wrong number for the first digit has never been 1, 4, 5, 7, or 8.)

How often was each combination of higher and lower correct? (seasons 40-46)

• 5 Lower: 0 playings (0%)
• 4 Lower, 1 Higher: 5 playings (3.8%)
• 3 Lower, 2 Higher: 26 playings (19.5%)
• 2 Lower, 3 Higher: 57 playings (42.9%)
• 1 Lower, 4 Higher: 45 playings (33.8%)
• 5 Higher: 0 playings (0%)

Strategy

There's no over-arching strategy here, but here are some tips to keep in mind:

• Don't forget the "no digits repeat except the first two" rule--this rule has been true in every playing of this game in since the middle of season 40.
• In general, if you're not sure, lean toward "higher" instead of "lower." You can see that in the last table above--the 1 lower/4 higher combination is right almost twice as often as the 3 lower/2 higher combination. But of course make sure at least one of your guesses is lower.
• If the second or third wrong digit is a 2, say lower. 94.1% of the time, that's been the correct guess for the second digit, and it's been right 80% of the time for the third digit.
• The fourth digit of the car is never 0. So if you see a 1 there, say higher.
• If the last digit is a 4, say lower. That's correct 91.7% of the time. The producers are trying to trap you into thinking the last digit is a 5.
• If the last digit is a 6, it's a good bet to be higher, but not quite as automatic as saying lower when the last digit is 4. But guessing higher still avoids the trap of you thinking the last digit is 5 that the producers want you to fall for.

[LiteBulb88]

1 Right Price

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_11.html)

Random fact

For a long time after this game debuted, it shared its set with Double Prices.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 231-180 (56.20%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)

The correct prize to choose was...(seasons 40-46)

• On the left: 78 playings (48.15%)
• On the right: 84 playings (52.85%)
• The more expensive prize: 102 playings (62.96%)
• The less expensive prize: 58 playings (35.80%)
• Unknown: 2 playings (1.23%)

Strategy

Mostly know the price, though if you're clueless, pick the prize you think is more expensive.

[LiteBulb88]

One Wrong Price

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_19.html)

Random fact

It's hard to see on TV, but the stand above the prize the contestant chooses lights up. It's very easy to see in the studio.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 195-219 (47.10%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)

The correct prize to choose was...(seasons 40-46)

• On the left: 56 playings (30.43%)
• In the middle: 75 playings (40.76%)
• On the right: 53 playings (28.80%)

Strategy

On the one hand, this game inverts the "pick the endpoints" rule--the center prize is the correct one to choose more often than either the left or the right prize. One the other hand, it's not so much more often that I'd recommend picking the middle as a general strategy; instead, know the price. But if you're clueless, go for the center prize.

[LiteBulb88]

Pass the Buck

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_20.html)

Random fact

When this game first debuted, there were 8 numbers and 3 pairs of grocery items; no picks were given for free. You can see a playing of it here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 30-46): 63-167 (27.39%)
• What it would be by random chance*: 1/3 (33.33%)

*Assuming that a contestant bails out if and only if they win the car.

The correct item to pass the buck to was...(seasons 40-46)

• On the left: 57 playings (43.85%)
• On the right: 73 playings (57.15%)

The car was behind...(seasons 40-46)

• #1: 20 playings (30.77%)
• #2: 6 playings (9.23%)
• #3: 4 playings (6.15%)
• #4: 2 playings (3.08%)
• #5: 8 playings (12.31%)
• #6: 25 playings (38.46%)

Strategy

Part 1: Grocery Pricing
Know the price. There's a slight preference toward pushing the buck toward the right, but not enough to suggest that as a strategy unless you're clueless about the price.

Part 2: Which numbers to pick
Pick the endpoints! Pick #6, then #1, and then #5. Just between #6 and #1, you have an over 69% chance of winning the car.

Should you bail out? Rarely. You should ONLY bail out under the following circumstances:

          # picks  # lose everythings  Car is worth less
You have    left   left on the board    than this to you
$4,000       1            2                $3,000
$5,000       1            1                $1,000
$5,000       1            2                $4,000
$5,000       2            2                $1,250
$6,000       1            2                $9,000
$8,000       1            2               $15,000

The right-most column indicates the minimum value of the car to you to keep playing under the given circumstances. For example, if you win $8,000 with your first two picks, you should only take a third pick if the car is worth $15,000 to you. Any combination not shown is a combination where you should always keep playing; in particular, if you have $3,000 or less, you should always continue as the just the cash on the board is worth playing for.

[tpir04]

You might succeed by selecting the endpoints, but the "Lose Everything" cards are there more often as well. I did some digging and found this data on where the two "Lose Everything" cards were (S46-S47):

The Lose Everything was under:

• Card #1: 9 playings
• Card #2: 6 playings
• Card #3: 7 playings
• Card #4: 6 playings
• Card #5: 5 playings
• Card #6: 4 playings
• Unknown: 1 playing

Notice that the cards are listed here as single instances, but in reality the numbers appear in pairs. For example, card number 5 was a Lose Everything five times. It was a Lose Everything along with number 1 three times and along with number 3 twice. As you can see, this list is only an explanation of the LE cards in one lump sum, paying no attention to which cards they were paired with.

Out of 20 playings from S46-47, the two "Lose Everything" cards were:

• Short Diagonal, (1,5; 2,6; 2,4; 3,5): 3, 2, 1, 2
• Long Diagonal, (1,6; 3,4): 0, 2
• Short Horizontal, (1,2; 2,3; 4,5; 5,6): 3, 1, 0, 0
• Long Horizontal, (1,3; 4,6): 2, 2
• Vertical, (1,4; 2,5; 3,6): 1, 0, 0
• Unknown, 1 playing

(The numbers in parentheses show the different combinations that could occur; the numbers following show how many times that combo occurred.)

All that said, if you are unfortunate to find a Lose Everything, pick the number directly above or below it. I would advise this strategy, in conjunction with LiteBulb's, assuming you get three picks:

• Pick #6.
• If it's a Lose Everything, pick 3. If it's cash, pick 5.
• Regardless of the outcome, if you didn't get the car yet, pick #1.