Author Topic: TPiR Recap - 10/18/2019 (TPiR Season 48 Big Money Week - Day 5)  (Read 2607 times)

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Offline SteveGavazzi

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Re: TPiR Recap - 10/18/2019 (TPiR Season 48 Big Money Week - Day 5)
« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2019, 03:40:20 PM »
I would never have guessed that they'd use Clock Game as a big money game, but in retrospect, it seems like a really obvious choice.  It doesn't affect the gameplay at all, and it doesn't tie up a fee game.

I'm kind of baffled by what they did with Secret "X".  On a show where it was pretty obvious they wanted a lot won, they blatantly set this up for a loss, and in a slot where such a result would (and did) cause weirdness with the jackpot, which grew despite them not showing it accumulating (or at all, even).

In case anyone's trying to keep track, four weeks in, there's only six games that haven't been played yet:  Temptation, Shell Game, Ten Chances, Golden Road, Blank Check, and Triple Play.

Also, on the 30th Anniversary special, the first two games were Triple Play and Plinko. According to the FAQ, Plinko would have been played with a $20K slot if Triple Play had been lost.

Just to clarify, Plinko was the fourth game.  The rest of this is accurate, though.
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Offline stardf29

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Re: TPiR Recap - 10/18/2019 (TPiR Season 48 Big Money Week - Day 5)
« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2019, 07:33:58 PM »
It was the right play purely from a expected value standpoint.

There were 4 remaining spaces.  You've got the car, 3k, and two lose everythings.  The car was $17,115.

So you have four possibilities:  -$6,000, -$6,000, +$3,000, and +$17,115.

Add that all up and divide by the total number of options.  Going for it has an expected value of +$2,028.75.

In order for it to be a bad bet to go for it purely off the math, you'd need to have picked the $5,000 and $3,000 first, and the car would have to be worth less than $15,000.

This is also why it's never the right play to bail in Spelling Bee except for very cheap cars, even if you're down to your last card and are counting on one of the two CAR cards.

Keep in mind, though, that expected values are more for instances where you can repeat the same event/game over and over. For these contestants, this is their one and only chance to win something in that game. It doesn't matter if the expected values say you can average a greater profit; if you are unlucky, you get nothing when you could have left with something, and you don't get to play the game again. The weight of the possibility of getting nothing is much heavier for these contestants than "expected value" is.

In that sense, it was definitely gutsy for the contestant to risk going for the car with a 50/50 chance of losing $6000. But hey, if you're scared, buy a dog, right?