Author Topic: TPiR Recap - 3/25/2020 (TPiR Season 48 LMAD Mashup Week - Day III)  (Read 2330 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Double_R

  • Outside in Line
  • *
  • Posts: 19
Re: TPiR Recap - 3/25/2020 (TPiR Season 48 LMAD Mashup Week - Day III)
« Reply #15 on: March 26, 2020, 01:49:20 AM »
Quite a coincidence that Brittany picked box #6, and missed her showcase by  $6!

Of course, it was preempted unfortunately due to a press conference in NYC concerning Covid-19.

I know these updates ARE necessary, but STILL... couldn't they preempt a DOB for once?
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 01:56:30 AM by Double_R »

Offline TPIRfan#9821

  • Walking the Golden Road
  • ****
  • Posts: 459
  • Remembering when the Zero Rule didn't exist
Re: TPiR Recap - 3/25/2020 (TPiR Season 48 LMAD Mashup Week - Day III)
« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2020, 03:21:12 AM »
On today's Let's Make a Deal, Wayne seemed shocked that the contestant was so adamant about holding on to the $2,000. Meanwhile, from my recliner, I was yelling at her to keep the money -- even if she gave back all $2,000 up front, she only had a 37.5% chance of winning. I assume that she wasn't thinking about what the odds actually were, but I applaud her for that decision.

Sacrificing $2,000 for a larger than 1-in-3 chance at a 20k+ car is a bet I would take. Call me risk-loving, but the math checks out.

Thank you for explaining this because, earlier today, I was lamenting her for not going for it while discussing with a friend. I thought she had a far better chance of winning the car (or at least getting to the final 50:50 pull) without having to price the car/risk putting numbers back in the bag and redrawing them for not placing them correctly. I thought this was far too easy to win a car comparing it to how the game is normally played on Price. Surprised it's not that much different.

You're dealt the hand you're given; it isn't fair to just assume "37.5%" and say that it isn't much easier than what is played on Price, so keeping the $2,000 is the correct thing to do.

Instead, it's more fair to compare the game to all the different outcomes and see what happens. I was originally going to post my calculations into here, but since no one wants a 20 minute lecture on probability, here is the slimmed-down version.

  • I assumed that the four strategies a contestant would do would be always discard a strike, discard the first strike, discard the second strike, and never discard a strike. I also assumed that Wayne wouldn't offer more money/goodies for the contestant to bail (i.e. offer another $2,000 to not draw the final number in the car and just sit down with $4,000)
  • The expected chances of winning the car with each strategy? 37.5% for always discarding, 17.17% for bailing on the first strike only, 14.15% for bailing on the second strike only, 13.57% for not bailing at all. So, always discarding increases your odds of winning by 176%.
  • The expected value of using each strategy, assuming the car is worth face value? $8,181.88 for always discarding, $4,707.62 for only discarding the first strike, $4,104.87 for discarding the second, and $4,916.31 for keeping the $2,000, no matter what.
  • What should Judith had done after she drew her second strike? Keep the $2,000 in entirety. If she gave up a grand, her odds of winning would have shot up from 1/210 to 1/90, so giving up the thousand would have cost on average $863.59.
  • If I value the car less than MSRP, how much do I need to value it to go for broke instead of keep the two grand? $7,836.56.
  • Was any of this going through Judith's head, or through anyone in the audience at that time? No. "Either I'm going home with the car or $2,000" doesn't seem to grasp the complexity of this problem, but $2,000 is $2,000.
Reminding you about 1932... when Richard Dawson was born. I will remember $19.32, even after he Checked-Out. Feud will never be the same without you.

HYO total winnings: $117,234 + Canadian dollars yay for over $100k

https://tinyurl.com/9821Legacy

Offline BillyGr

  • Walking the Golden Road
  • ****
  • Posts: 400
Re: TPiR Recap - 3/25/2020 (TPiR Season 48 LMAD Mashup Week - Day III)
« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2020, 01:07:57 PM »
Quite a coincidence that Brittany picked box #6, and missed her showcase by  $6!

Of course, it was preempted unfortunately due to a press conference in NYC concerning Covid-19.

I know these updates ARE necessary, but STILL... couldn't they preempt a DOB for once?

Yes, unfortunate that they didn't put the special games in the earlier parts of the show for most of them so we'd at least get to see those.

Also unfortunate that those doing this conference haven't realized that most (if not all, the three in this area all do) stations already have a news program for the Noon hour which would be a more sensible time to do the conference and also better for those who are still working to be able to take a lunch break and tune in live if they wish via TV or online means. 

Much easier to do that on a state briefing basis, since unlike a national one, the entire state operates in the same time zone.

Offline Casey

  • Double Showcase Winner
  • ******
  • Posts: 1247
Re: TPiR Recap - 3/25/2020 (TPiR Season 48 LMAD Mashup Week - Day III)
« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2020, 02:01:33 PM »
What’s unfortunate is that some of you can’t seem to realize that a worldwide pandemic is more important than seeing someone win both showcases.

Offline Declan127

  • Outside in Line
  • *
  • Posts: 3
Re: TPiR Recap - 3/25/2020 (TPiR Season 48 LMAD Mashup Week - Day III)
« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2020, 07:33:08 PM »
could there be 4 dsws this year?? Also, TTM shocked me because it wasnt the 5th price.

Offline thepriceis_J

  • Double Showcase Winner
  • ******
  • Posts: 2555
Re: TPiR Recap - 3/25/2020 (TPiR Season 48 LMAD Mashup Week - Day III)
« Reply #20 on: March 27, 2020, 02:21:44 PM »
What’s unfortunate is that some of you can’t seem to realize that a worldwide pandemic is more important than seeing someone win both showcases.
Doctors + Government: "Stay inside!"

Networks + Affiliates: "We're here with you. Stay in and watch our programming. #AloneTogether"

Networks + Affiliates: *preempts half the morning programming*

There can be a balance between covering the daily updates on the pandemic. There happens to be a slot of programming meant for daily news throughout the day at noon, 5pm, and 11pm that can go over a lot of the lesser urgent updates.

And, I'm on the side of most preemptions, so I'm not like most going "Who cares? *rabble**rabble**rabble*" Especially when the preemptions go over new executive orders from governors and the President. The information does need to be disseminated.
"WHO GOT BIRDS?" - Snoop Dogg
Coming on Down since Season 20!
Season 13 & 14 CSS Champion

Me: Of all of the game shows you've hosted, besides Jeopardy!, like High Rollers or Classic Concentration, which is your favorite?
Alex Trebek: I'd have to say To Tell The Truth, because it was the first time in my career that I got to sit down while I was hosting.

Offline BillyGr

  • Walking the Golden Road
  • ****
  • Posts: 400
Re: TPiR Recap - 3/25/2020 (TPiR Season 48 LMAD Mashup Week - Day III)
« Reply #21 on: March 28, 2020, 05:35:12 PM »
Doctors + Government: "Stay inside!"

Networks + Affiliates: "We're here with you. Stay in and watch our programming. #AloneTogether"

Networks + Affiliates: *preempts half the morning programming*

There can be a balance between covering the daily updates on the pandemic. There happens to be a slot of programming meant for daily news throughout the day at noon, 5pm, and 11pm that can go over a lot of the lesser urgent updates.

And, I'm on the side of most preemptions, so I'm not like most going "Who cares? *rabble**rabble**rabble*" Especially when the preemptions go over new executive orders from governors and the President. The information does need to be disseminated.

And, just to add an interesting twist to this - the same station that broke in for the Governor all 5 days this week during Price is Right did NOT show his briefing today live at the same time period, choosing instead to continuing airing their Educational programming and offering the conference via stream on their website.

It is just what thepriceis_j says, no one is saying not to show the information, just choose a better time to do so, given all the existing news blocks available and even breaking into other filmed programming where what is being shown is a rerun (like many of the other daytime talk type programs), rather than one of the few shows still offering new episodes as they have them available.  Part of that keeping people mentally healthy, getting to watch some fun stuff in between all the important news being shown.

Offline Casey

  • Double Showcase Winner
  • ******
  • Posts: 1247
Re: TPiR Recap - 3/25/2020 (TPiR Season 48 LMAD Mashup Week - Day III)
« Reply #22 on: March 28, 2020, 08:14:31 PM »
Do you honestly believe that the mayors/governors/presidents give a rat’s about what programs are being shown at what times?  Because if you think they are sitting there in their offices, going “gee, well, we’ll preempt Young and Restless today because we want to make sure people see who wins the showcase,” you really need to check your entitlement.

Offline SteveGavazzi

  • Director
  • **********
  • Posts: 17363
Re: TPiR Recap - 3/25/2020 (TPiR Season 48 LMAD Mashup Week - Day III)
« Reply #23 on: March 29, 2020, 10:34:11 PM »
Folks, the ban threat still stands.  Keep bitching about the press conferences, and someone will be out of here until the next professional basketball game.

Also, I really don't like what they did to 3 Strikes.  I totally get why they did it -- it makes sense for LMaD -- but I still don't like it.  I'm also not crazy about them playing it for a regular car.
"Every game is somebody's favorite." -- Wise words from Roger Dobkowitz.

Offline thepriceis_J

  • Double Showcase Winner
  • ******
  • Posts: 2555
Re: TPiR Recap - 3/25/2020 (TPiR Season 48 LMAD Mashup Week - Day III)
« Reply #24 on: March 30, 2020, 12:20:11 PM »
Do you honestly believe that the mayors/governors/presidents give a rat’s about what programs are being shown at what times?  Because if you think they are sitting there in their offices, going “gee, well, we’ll preempt Young and Restless today because we want to make sure people see who wins the showcase,” you really need to check your entitlement.
Let me just clarify that I was referring to the decision of the affiliates/networks on what they choose to cover. I've joked about it before, but of course mayors, governors, and the President aren't looking at the TV schedule to decide when to hold their press conferences. Although, based on recent tweets, maybe the President is indeed looking.

And again, when I refer to that, I understand that all of the information is important and most of it is immediately important. My governor issued a stay-at-home order that preempted the end of LMAD and half of Price and I had *no* problem with that because that's information I *definitely* needed to know as soon as possible.
"WHO GOT BIRDS?" - Snoop Dogg
Coming on Down since Season 20!
Season 13 & 14 CSS Champion

Me: Of all of the game shows you've hosted, besides Jeopardy!, like High Rollers or Classic Concentration, which is your favorite?
Alex Trebek: I'd have to say To Tell The Truth, because it was the first time in my career that I got to sit down while I was hosting.

Offline jhc2010

  • Double Showcase Winner
  • ******
  • Posts: 1908
Re: TPiR Recap - 3/25/2020 (TPiR Season 48 LMAD Mashup Week - Day III)
« Reply #25 on: March 31, 2020, 09:48:40 AM »
That $23,456 price in the showcase is so interesting. Has a showcase ever been priced 2-3-4-5-6 before? Are the show’s producers able to manuipulate the price of trips down to the dollar in order for a price like this to show up for the total of the showcase? At the time, I was surprised that the contestant didn’t bid $23,456 after starting out 2-3-4-5-. I even thought $23,456 would be my bid for this showcase after hearing hers never thinking it would actually be correct.

Offline bonkers77

  • In Contestant's Row
  • ***
  • Posts: 160
Re: TPiR Recap - 3/25/2020 (TPiR Season 48 LMAD Mashup Week - Day III)
« Reply #26 on: April 02, 2020, 03:12:03 AM »
$6!