Season 49 Predictions

[rockyboy34]

What do you think the show will do on its 49th Season (if it comes)? Pricing Games? Specials?

[gamesurf]

Going to try to do it Scott Alexander style, with a prediction and a confidence level for each prediction. In a year or so I'll come back and check these out to see how well I did. Maybe time will reveal I'm dead wrong on some of these, maybe the future holds events that nobody can foresee, but who cares, I'm trying it anyways.

•There will be a Season 49 (99.8%)
•Drew Carey will continue to host through Season 49 (99%)
•Each show in Season 49 includes the normal six pricing games, showcase showdowns, showcases, etc. (90%)
•There will not be video contestants, call ins, etc. replacing in-studio contestants (85%)
•The show does sticks to its normal nine contestants called on down, standing behind podiums in Contestants Row, bidding on six IUFBs per episode (80%)

•The first tapings for Season 49 take place at the Bob Barker Studio in Hollywood (80%)
•The first tapings for Season 49 are delayed until after September 1, 2020 (95%)
•after January 1, 2021 (70%)
•after March 1, 2021 (50%)

•Until Season 49 resumes, TPIR reruns continue to air at their normal CBS timeslots (80%)
•All episodes rerun are from the Drew era of the show only (70%)
•All episodes rerun are from Season 48 only (50%)

•Season 49 is shorter than the normal 190 episode order (90%)
•Season 49 is shorter than Bob's 175 episode order (60%)
•Season 49 includes at least three "special" weeklong events (Dream Car, PCH, Big Money, etc.) (70%)
•Season 49 includes at least seven "special" episodes not related to weeklong events (Breast Cancer, College Rivals, Halloween, etc.) (70%)

•The show tapes with an audience (85%)
•Masks in the audience and among contestants are common (60%)
•The show tapes at 50% studio capacity or less (50%)
•Drew noticeably has much less physical contact with contestants, aside from things like the "elbow bump greeting" (50%)

Conditional on no major format changes and at least 175 episodes in the season...
•A car worth over $50,000 is won in Season 49 (85%)
•A DSW happens (80%)
•At least 3 contestants spin $26,000 on the wheel (60%)
•There are more 0/6 shows in the season than 6/6 shows (60%)
•Somebody breaks into the TPIR top 10 winnings record (50%)
•Golden Road is won at least once (30%)
•Stack the Deck is won at least twice (30%)
•Plinko will remain "winless" (99.999%)

[rockyboy34]

^ Interesting...

[ThatDonGuy]

•Until Season 49 resumes, TPIR reruns continue to air at their normal CBS timeslots (80%)

I put this at 99% - what else would they air? The Best of Match Game 7x? I also wonder if the old The Joker's Wild tapes exist anywhere; they were in syndication in the 1970s, so more than the master tapes existed at some point.

•Masks in the audience and among contestants are common (60%)
•The show tapes at 50% studio capacity or less (50%)

In the audience, maybe, but once they're on Contestants Row, the masks have to come off, as otherwise the bids would be muffled. They'll break out the asterisk separators they use for shows when there's more than one person behind each podium.

As for 50% capacity, the show loses some of its charm if it doesn't have groups of people sitting together. Maybe if they tell groups to bring extra matching shirts to put on the empty seats?

•Plinko will remain "winless" (99.999%)

Here's one for the show history boffins: has there ever been an episode where somebody won at least $10,000 (or $5000 before they raised the center amount) on Plinko, and the other five games were all won?

[gamesurf]

I put this at 99% - what else would they air? The Best of Match Game 7x? I also wonder if the old The Joker's Wild tapes exist anywhere; they were in syndication in the 1970s, so more than the master tapes existed at some point.

I was thinking more along the lines of temporarily slotting in "The Talk 2.0" or "cheap new studio show" or "reshuffle the daytime schedule".

(I don't think it's likely either. But with so much uncertainty and potential for surprises in the next year, I fully expect to be wrong on some of these.)

Here's one for the show history boffins: has there ever been an episode where somebody won at least $10,000 (or $5000 before they raised the center amount) on Plinko, and the other five games were all won?

I know it happened during Youth Week in season 46.

[imhomerjay]

Keeping The Talk 1.0 up and running is enough to chew on. If, and it’s a big if, they felt more news was warranted on the regular schedule—one-offs aside—the soap slots are a bigger issue than Price reruns. There’s only so far you can milk these theme weeks. Whereas a game show could more or less rerun this entire past season and come out relatively unscathed. Perhaps not ideal, but CBS has bigger areas of immediate concern. Price, and Deal, can be “set it and forget it” for the near to medium term.

That’s not saying they won’t look at options to adapt and get new episodes on in some fashion, just that in the hierarchy of needs, it’s less pressing.

[Mr. Weatherman]

I can actually see the soaps returning before game shows.  COVID tests are widely available, so they could feasibly test everyone involved in the production and film as many shows as possible in a day — maybe over the course of a week with everyone quarantined in the meantime (if necessary).  It’s not ideal, but they can certainly get shows on the air with few worries.

[PatrickRox80]

Jeopardy! has announced during the current Teachers' Tournament that they'll be taping new episodes soon. I've always figured Jeopardy! to be the most viable of the current five-a-weeks because it's strictly a cash show.

That said, if the ratings boosts are any indication, Price is still in good hands even if they don't tape as many episodes as S48. They've got plenty of Drew episodes to re-run without the risk of the show getting stale. A recurring issue I can see aside from shooting with an audience of potential contestants is the tourism industry taking a huge hit. They just can't expect to offer as many trips.

For that very reason, I'm the least optimistic about Wheel of Fortune returning. They really screwed themselves over by making the Prize Puzzle such a huge part of the show.

[blozier2006]

I've always figured Jeopardy! to be the most viable of the current five-a-weeks because it's strictly a cash show.

Jeopardy! is a double-edged sword; as easy as it is to run an all-cash show, there's also the issue of a seriously-ill emcee, and an announcer nearing a century on this planet. They'd be the least prepared to handle the virus, if something slipped by testing.

[tpir04]

Going to provide my own predictions using gamesurf's template along with a few of my own thrown in (hat tip to gamesurf for saving me a lot of work):

•There will be a Season 49 (100%)
•Drew Carey will continue to host through Season 49 (100%)
•Each show in Season 49 includes the normal six pricing games, showcase showdowns, showcases, etc. (100%)
•The show does sticks to its normal nine contestants called on down, standing behind podiums in Contestants Row, bidding on six IUFBs per episode (99%)
•There will not be video contestants, call ins, etc. replacing in-studio contestants (95%)

(I am highly confident that the show will not inherently change. It's too much of a television staple to take risks with it.)

•The first tapings for Season 49 take place at the Bob Barker Studio in Hollywood (95%)
•The first tapings for Season 49 are delayed until after September 1, 2020 (80%)
•after January 1, 2021 (50%)
•after March 1, 2021 (30%)

•Until Season 49 resumes, TPIR reruns continue to air at their normal CBS timeslots (90%)
•All episodes rerun are from the Drew era of the show only (90%)
•All episodes rerun are from Season 48 only (60%)
•A "Best Of" episode showing clips from both Bob and Drew will be assembled and shown (5%)

•Season 49 is shorter than the normal 190 episode order (95%)
•Season 49 is shorter than Bob's 175 episode order (70%)
•Season 49 includes at least three "special" weeklong events (Dream Car, PCH, Big Money, etc.) (90%)
•Season 49 includes at least seven "special" episodes not related to weeklong events (Breast Cancer, College Rivals, Halloween, etc.) (70%)

•The show tapes with an audience (85%)
•Drew noticeably has much less physical contact with contestants, aside from things like the "elbow bump greeting" (75%)
•The show tapes at 50% studio capacity or less (65%)
•Masks in the audience and among contestants are common (50%)

Conditional on no major format changes and at least 175 episodes in the season...
•A car worth over $50,000 is won in Season 49 (90%)
•A DSW happens (90%)
•There are more 0/6 shows in the season than 6/6 shows (80%) (Isn't this always the case?)
•Somebody breaks into the TPIR top 10 winnings record (70%)
•Stack the Deck is won at least twice (60%)
•Golden Road is won at least once (50%)
•At least 3 contestants spin $26,000 on the wheel (35%)
•3 Strikes is won at least once (10%)
•Plinko will remain "winless" (1,000,000%)

[UltraPrice]

Any percentage guess on George Gray being recovered and ready to go when season 49 starts?

[gamesurf]

For that very reason, I'm the least optimistic about Wheel of Fortune returning. They really screwed themselves over by making the Prize Puzzle such a huge part of the show.

Seems like an easy fix on paper--find some nice prizes that aren't trips? Or, hoping against hope, get rid of the dang Prize Puzzle?

I know the trips are probably sponsored, but if that's a serious obstacle holding up production it's like the proverbial child getting his clenched fist stuck in the cookie jar.

Jeopardy! is a double-edged sword; as easy as it is to run an all-cash show, there's also the issue of a seriously-ill emcee, and an announcer nearing a century on this planet. They'd be the least prepared to handle the virus, if something slipped by testing.

Johnny doesn't even need to be in-studio. He could prerecord plenty of episodes alone in a recording booth, or even from home. (That's what Don Pardo did his last few years at SNL.) And Alex has so much good public goodwill, I'm sure that the show would not go ahead unless Alex was absolutely comfortable doing it.

On Jeopardy!, an asymptomatic crew member would be a bigger danger than a contestant.

I can actually see the soaps returning before game shows.  COVID tests are widely available, so they could feasibly test everyone involved in the production and film as many shows as possible in a day — maybe over the course of a week with everyone quarantined in the meantime (if necessary).  It’s not ideal, but they can certainly get shows on the air with few worries.

My main line of thinking was "After a year or so of reruns CBS might prefer airing something that wasn't an obviously taped before March 2020." You could hypothetically stick a talk show or news or even a cheap game show in the slot as a temporary reshuffle. (I think Price reruns hold up just fine, but I'm trying to cover my bases and predict what might happen, not just what I hope will happen.)

•The show does sticks to its normal nine contestants called on down

Gaah that typo is killing me now, I can't unsee it

(In hindsight I wish I'd made those predictions more testable, like make 10 predictions at 80%, expecting to miss two, but it got the general thoughts on the page and that was the important thing.)

Any percentage guess on George Gray being recovered and ready to go when season 49 starts?

I would put that at a 95%.

[JT]

When they come back, I could see them removing the first row of seats behind contestants row just for more space.  Also, when a contestant wins their game, I don't see them running to their prize and touching the models.   That will be reserved for the showcase winner just like in Classic Price.  Also, Drew's going to have to stop shaking people's hands every two minutes.

[EvilChameleon]

My one prediction is if the start of the season is delayed, and it probably will be, when it does return, premiere day will be a, as we say in baseball, day/night doubleheader. Celebrate the new season in the morning, and fill one of the two remaining primetime shows they ordered with a charity special at night.

[JayC]

When they come back, I could see them removing the first row of seats behind contestants row just for more space.  Also, when a contestant wins their game, I don't see them running to their prize and touching the models.   That will be reserved for the showcase winner just like in Classic Price.  Also, Drew's going to have to stop shaking people's hands every two minutes.

I would guess when they can tape again it will be a reduced audience size, so physically removing the seats wouldn't be necessary they would just space everyone out appropriately. Spacing of contestants in Contestant's Row would be an issue also though, they would have to either put plexiglass barriers between them or find a way to further separate the podiums.