You're right. A recession would cause more people to cut back on services they don't need, and that includes streamers. In addition, a writer's strike would cause linear TV to search for more unscripted content, such as game shows.
I believe you are fundamentally insisting that people would rather turn on a TV with an antenna (because if someone was paying for cable, they would have probably cancelled that first before any streaming services) and go out of their way to watch a program with 15 minutes of commercials solely because of the $1,000,000 instead of scrolling through TikTok or YouTube and watch whatever they care more about for free.
If viewers were already going out of their way to watch linear television, there are so many hoops they'd go through already, that the million dollars would be a tertiary reason to watch. As shown with the ratings of the Season 50 premiere, the average viewership didn't increase for the week they offered the million dollars. You have stated what you think could happen (viewers suddenly hear some Joe Schmoe can win $1,000,000, so they will drop everything just to watch the show), but haven't given concrete evidence as to why a recession would lead to more television viewers in general (as again, social media is FREE and it is rare to have television but not internet), as well as why a CBS exec would expect a major increase in viewership specifically by just the million instead of just having a recognizable game show (given that there's recent data showing otherwise). I'll respond again once I see a reasonable argument, but responding to every single one of our remarks with just two or three sentences with your wants and hypothetical scenarios isn't successfully convincing any of us.