TPiR Recap - 3/15/2023 (TPiR Season 51 College Week: Day III - Graduation)

[Roadgeek Adam]

Episode #0153L (TPiR Season 51 College Week: Day 3: Graduation)
Aired – 3/15/2023; Taped – 1/9/2023
Models: Devin Goda, Rachel Reynolds
Microphone Handoff: Rachel
First Four Contestant Seating: Left to Right

First IUFB: Designer Luggage (Travelpro: 6 hardshell suitcases with 6 leather luggage tags); ARP: $1,260 (Rachel and Devin on CHUGGS)

REMICIA	MASON	DANIEL	ANNA
900	700	1100	1101

The winner is...
ANNA

Anna, a senior at UCLA, is playing Any Number for random cash, adjustable dumbbells (Bowflex: pair of adjustable dumbbells; stand, media rack, 1yr digital platform) (Devin) or a 2023 Currant Red Kia Forte LXS (2L engine, IVT, FWD, etch protection and interior lighting kit) (Rachel).

The first number of the car is a...

CAR	2
DUMBBELLS
PIGGY BANK

Anna guesses a 5.

CAR	2
DUMBBELLS
PIGGY BANK					5

Anna guesses a 2.

CAR	2
DUMBBELLS
PIGGY BANK				2	5

Anna guesses a 1.

CAR	2	1
DUMBBELLS
PIGGY BANK				2	5

Anna guesses a 6.

CAR	2	1
DUMBBELLS			6
PIGGY BANK				2	5

Anna guesses a 8.

CAR	2	1
DUMBBELLS			6		8
PIGGY BANK				2	5

Anna guesses a 7.

CAR	2	1
DUMBBELLS			6		8
PIGGY BANK			7.	2	5

LOSS. Board was:

CAR	2	1	9	4	3
DUMBBELLS			6	0	8
PIGGY BANK			7.	2	5

Second IUFB: Bar Cabinet (Dark walnut mid-century modern var cabinet; push button cocktail capsule machine; sodastream: soda machine; 2 martini glasses, 4 highball glasses)); ARP: $924 (Devin)

REMICIA	MASON	DANIEL	MINAMI
1800	1	795	635

The winner is...
DANIEL

Daniel, a mass media senior at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York (go flying dutch!), is playing Double Prices for a new living room (7th Avenue: 5pc modular sofa with coffee table, 10 games) (Rachel).

$8132

$

$5616

$8132

$5616

LOSS

Third IUFB: Espresso Machine (DeLonghi: Eletta Explore 3-in-one machine; OHOM: 3pc self-heating mug set and teapot system with charging pad, self-sanitizing water bottle, 1 carrying pouch; everyone in the audience will get a mug and water bottle, you can win one on priceisright.com); ARP: $2,243 (Rachel)

REMICIA	MASON	GARRETT	MINAMI
1200	851	775	850

The winner is...
REMICIA

Remicia, a biology with pre-med track senior at San Diego State University, is playing 1/2-Off for a chance to win $10,000!

Inside one of these boxes in $10,000! The rest have nothing. Remicia can eliminate some of the boxes by guessing which item is half-off it"s ARP.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

SOAP DISPENSER

$70

$15

NECK LIGHT

She picks the neck light...

SOAP DISPENSER

$70

$15

$30

Correct! Half of the boxes are elminated...

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

SCANNING PEN

$160

$125

THERMOSTAT

She picks the thermostat...

SCANNING PEN

$160

$125

$250

Correct! Half of the boxes are elminated...

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

WHITE NOISE MACHINE

$50

$350

HEADPHONES

She picks white noise machine...

$100

$50

$350

HEADPHONES

Correct! Half of the boxes are elminated and she wins $1,000...

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Box picked:

2

Inside the box:

 

Money inside box:

9

LOSS (Total Winnings: $1,960)

SCSD #1

Contestant	Winnings	Spin 1	Spin 2	TOTAL	RESULT
Daniel	$924	90	STAY	.90
Anna	$1,267.25	100	–	1.00	*$1,000!*
Remicia	$4,203	40	95	1.35	OVER

Contestant	Winnings	Spin 1	TOTAL	RESULT
Anna	$2,267.25	75	.75	*SHOWCASE*

Fourth IUFB: Smart Watches (4 bluetooth stainless steel watches); ARP: $1,600 (Rachel)

ADDISON	MASON	GARRETT	MINAMI
1200	2000	2001	1201

The winner is...
MINAMI

Minami, a criminal justice student at Cal State Fullerton, is playing Gridlock for a 2022 Chevrolet Trax LS (1.4L engine, 6-speed AT, FWD, tint and cruise package, new car care kit, cargo area organizer, remote start) (Devin)

Minami is given the first number, which is 2.

$2

$2	18	04	35	21	94	62

Minami selects 35 as the second and third numbers of the car.

$23,5

	18	04		21	94	62
			$2	35

That is correct! Now, Minami picks 62 as the fourth and fifth prices in the car.

$23,5

	18	04		21	94
								$2	35	62

That is not correct but she has one more chance. Now, Minami picks 94 as the fourth and fifth prices in the car.

$23,594

	18	04		21		62
						$2	35	94

WIN

Fifth IUFB: Grooming Products (2 maintenance kits, one for him, one for her; acessories and travel pouches); ARP: $730 (Devin)

ADDISON	MASON	GARRETT	LUIS
700	701	575	450

The winner is...
MASON

Mason, the last of the first four, a communications and media relations senior at Kentucky Wesleyan University in Owensboro, Kentucky, is playing One Right Price for:

1. Electric Moped (Niu: MQi GT with 62mi range, 48volt lithium battery, smart bluetooth app connectivity) (Rachel)
2. Washer and Dryer (LG: top-load washer and sensor dry dryer with 5 temperature settings; garment steamer) (Devin)

The right price is $4,699. He picks the ...

MOPED		WASHER/DRYER
		$4699
$4699		$3127
		LOSS

Sixth IUFB: Designer Sunglasses (Dolce & Gabanna: 2 pairs for him, 2 pairs for her); ARP: $1,064 (Rachel)

ADDISON	MARGARET	GARRETT	LUIS
2	999	800	1

The winner is...
MARGARET

Margaret, an international relations senior at Loyola Marymount University, is playing Check Out for a trip to Santorini (RT Coach to Santorini, GR for a 6n stay in a cave pool suite at Astarte Suites Hotel + daily breakfast; ARP: $12,634) (Devin).

Guesses		ARPs	Differences
3.25	Green Giant Simply Steam Antioxidant Blend Lightly Sauced Mixed Veggies (7oz)	$1.89	1.36
2.50	Kellogg"s (of Battle Creek) Zesta Saltine Crackers (16oz)	$3.49	.99
3.75	Island Snacks Chili Mango Snacks (4oz)	$2.99	.76
2.00	Thai Kitchen Life Unsweetened Coconut Milk (13.66oz)	$4.29	2.29
6.00	Crest 3D White Arctic Fresh Toothpaste (3.8oz)	$5.99	.01
17.50	Totals	18.65	1.15	WIN

SCSD #2

Contestant	Winnings	Spin 1	Spin 2	TOTAL	RESULT
Mason	$730	85	STAY	.85	*SHOWCASE*
Margaret	$13,698	25	95	1.20	OVER
Minami	$25,194	20	60	.80

THE FABULOUS SHOWCASES

Anna has the honors...

SC1 - Anna

MOVE OUT OF THE DORMS

• Bedroom (Jennifer Taylor Home: bedframe, 2 single-drawer accent side tables; Ghostbed: Venus queen mattress with 2 pillows, mattress protector, cooling sheet, 2 pillowcases) (Rachel)
• Television (75in QELD 4K smart television with LED backlighting, cinematic surround sound) (Rachel)
• 2023 Toyota Tacoma SR 4x2 Access Cab (2.7L engine, 6-speed AT, utility package, DEG) (Devin)

Bid: $32,000

SC2 - Mason

GET A JOB

• Desktop Computer (24in all-in-one computer with 12GB RAM, 256GB HD; printer) (Devin)
• Designer Wardrobe (Ralph Lauren: jacket, trouses, cashmere sweater, chino pants, wing tips and suede boots for him; wool blazer, ankle pants, sandals, leather boots, ribbed turtleneck, sleeveless dress) (Devin)
• 2023 Mazda CX-30 Premium (2.5L engine, 6-speed AT, AWD, wheel locks) (Rachel)

Bid: $27,000

Anna

$32,000

ROOM/TRUCK

$36,406

$4,406

ROOM/TRUCK

*WIN*
$38,673.25

Mason

$27,000

SUV

$37,668

$10,668

SUV

Results: 2 out of 6
Winnings: $83,422.25
Biggest Winner: Anna

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[Hockeyman]

I have an interesting strategy for Check-Out that involves having no knowledge of grocery prices and gives you a 5 out of 7 chance according to this seasons stats.  If you put $19.92 on the first price and $0.02 on the other 4, you will get a total of $20.00.  According to TPIR stats, the price was in between $18 to $22 5 out of 7 times this season, which gives you a decent chance of winning.  Overall it was a lower end show today with some bad losses on easy setups.

[BillyGr]

I have an interesting strategy for Check-Out that involves having no knowledge of grocery prices and gives you a 5 out of 7 chance according to this seasons stats.  If you put $19.92 on the first price and $0.02 on the other 4, you will get a total of $20.00.  According to TPIR stats, the price was in between $18 to $22 5 out of 7 times this season, which gives you a decent chance of winning.  Overall it was a lower end show today with some bad losses on easy setups.

Wouldn't that be kind of obvious, though?  Seems like there are other ways to add up to $20 with 5 items that would be easier (even just saying $4 for each item, though maybe something like randomly assorting a $2, $3, $4, $5 and $6 would be even better).

[Briguy]

 

Wouldn't that be kind of obvious, though?  Seems like there are other ways to add up to $20 with 5 items that would be easier (even just saying $4 for each item, though maybe something like randomly assorting a $2, $3, $4, $5 and $6 would be even better).

I dunno … can you say, “$19.96” for the first item and “1 cent” for the remainder of the items? It doesn’t seem as though the rules specifically prohibit it, but … .

Brian

[brosa0]

I thought about that type of play on Check-Out recently and why not?   It's something that the producers probably wouldn't be fond of, but Drew would love it and have a great time with it given he loves the strategies used in different games. 

[Roadgeek Adam]

Recap posted. The next show will be Monday, March 20, 2023 for #0161L. I will talk to you when I'm 32 years old.

Enjoy college basketball.

[Grammar-Nazi]

Have a great birthday, Adam. Let March Madness begin!

[Prizes]

I have an interesting strategy for Check-Out that involves having no knowledge of grocery prices and gives you a 5 out of 7 chance according to this seasons stats.  If you put $19.92 on the first price and $0.02 on the other 4, you will get a total of $20.00.  According to TPIR stats, the price was in between $18 to $22 5 out of 7 times this season, which gives you a decent chance of winning.  Overall it was a lower end show today with some bad losses on easy setups.

$18.69 is the magic price in a line of best fit, relative to the Bayesian/credible interval and accounting for error margin of a player's total while considering error margins within the game itself. The last of these two sound similar but they're very different: The former is to compare within internal findings, the latter compares with the game's outer limits ($2.00).

I've hit upon this with long math in a post I made at the end of January. The skew is materially off the normative for car playings, which requires a further look on my end, but this weights for that, perhaps too much so. Notably, the playing quoted was in fact for a car so it didn't win.

Been having some fun with the math, took a look at the last 33 Check-Out playings, including today. The magic number is $18.69 with a decent result in our error margin at a 95% confidence interval that falls well within our acceptable $2 boundary range, since $2, either way is 10.7%(!)* for an acceptable error margin.

Today was special and an exception and loser to the rule, but that total wins you 24 of the last 33 playings or just under 73% without any other info. If it was a more extreme loss it was more likely to be under $16.69. Two of the four times $18.69 lost by being too low of a total, it was roughly within a quarter, or $2.00-$2.25 difference.

*Which arguably tells me $2 is probably too large of a range statistically for this number, and to get the desired win-loss rate of ideal, sharp players, you'd want both of A) Wider variance in price sets/totals and B) More expensive winning raw totals. Not that these need to remotely happen if you're Chris, it's a hard enough game for most players anyway. But Drew's oft-calming axiom is actually right, people in theory should win the game all the time, purely by probability and math dives.