Author Topic: TPiR Recap - 3/15/2023 (TPiR Season 51 College Week: Day III - Graduation)  (Read 1628 times)

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Offline Roadgeek Adam

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Episode #0153L (TPiR Season 51 College Week: Day 3: Graduation)
Aired – 3/15/2023; Taped – 1/9/2023
Models: Devin Goda, Rachel Reynolds
Microphone Handoff: Rachel
First Four Contestant Seating: Left to Right

First IUFB: Designer Luggage (Travelpro: 6 hardshell suitcases with 6 leather luggage tags); ARP: $1,260 (Rachel and Devin on CHUGGS)

REMICIA MASON DANIEL ANNA
900 700 1100 1101

The winner is...
ANNA


Anna, a senior at UCLA, is playing Any Number for random cash, adjustable dumbbells (Bowflex: pair of adjustable dumbbells; stand, media rack, 1yr digital platform) (Devin) or a 2023 Currant Red Kia Forte LXS (2L engine, IVT, FWD, etch protection and interior lighting kit) (Rachel).

The first number of the car is a...

CAR 2
DUMBBELLS
PIGGY BANK

Anna guesses a 5.

CAR 2
DUMBBELLS
PIGGY BANK 5

Anna guesses a 2.

CAR 2
DUMBBELLS
PIGGY BANK 2 5

Anna guesses a 1.

CAR 2 1
DUMBBELLS
PIGGY BANK 2 5

Anna guesses a 6.

CAR 2 1
DUMBBELLS 6
PIGGY BANK 2 5

Anna guesses a 8.

CAR 2 1
DUMBBELLS 6 8
PIGGY BANK 2 5

Anna guesses a 7.

CAR 2 1
DUMBBELLS 6 8
PIGGY BANK 7. 2 5

LOSS. Board was:

CAR 2 1 9 4 3
DUMBBELLS 6 0 8
PIGGY BANK 7. 2 5

Second IUFB: Bar Cabinet (Dark walnut mid-century modern var cabinet; push button cocktail capsule machine; sodastream: soda machine; 2 martini glasses, 4 highball glasses)); ARP: $924 (Devin)

REMICIA MASON DANIEL MINAMI
1800 1 795 635

The winner is...
DANIEL


Daniel, a mass media senior at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York (go flying dutch!), is playing Double Prices for a new living room (7th Avenue: 5pc modular sofa with coffee table, 10 games) (Rachel).

$8132
$
$5616
$8132
$5616
LOSS

Third IUFB: Espresso Machine (DeLonghi: Eletta Explore 3-in-one machine; OHOM: 3pc self-heating mug set and teapot system with charging pad, self-sanitizing water bottle, 1 carrying pouch; everyone in the audience will get a mug and water bottle, you can win one on priceisright.com); ARP: $2,243 (Rachel)

REMICIA MASON GARRETT MINAMI
1200 851 775 850

The winner is...
REMICIA


Remicia, a biology with pre-med track senior at San Diego State University, is playing 1/2-Off for a chance to win $10,000!

Inside one of these boxes in $10,000! The rest have nothing. Remicia can eliminate some of the boxes by guessing which item is half-off it"s ARP.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

SOAP
DISPENSER
$70 $15

NECK
LIGHT

She picks the neck light...

SOAP
DISPENSER
$70 $15 $30

Correct! Half of the boxes are elminated...

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16


SCANNING
PEN
$160 $125

THERMOSTAT

She picks the thermostat...

SCANNING
PEN
$160 $125 $250

Correct! Half of the boxes are elminated...

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16


WHITE NOISE
MACHINE
$50 $350

HEADPHONES

She picks white noise machine...

$100 $50 $350

HEADPHONES

Correct! Half of the boxes are elminated and she wins $1,000...

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16


Box picked:

2

Inside the box:

 

Money inside box:

9


LOSS (Total Winnings: $1,960)

SCSD #1

Contestant Winnings Spin 1 Spin 2 TOTAL RESULT
Daniel $924 90 STAY .90
Anna $1,267.25 100 1.00 *$1,000!*
Remicia $4,203 40 95 1.35
OVER

Contestant Winnings Spin 1 TOTAL RESULT
Anna $2,267.25 75 .75 *SHOWCASE*

Fourth IUFB: Smart Watches (4 bluetooth stainless steel watches); ARP: $1,600 (Rachel)

ADDISON MASON GARRETT MINAMI
1200 2000 2001 1201

The winner is...
MINAMI


Minami, a criminal justice student at Cal State Fullerton, is playing Gridlock for a 2022 Chevrolet Trax LS (1.4L engine, 6-speed AT, FWD, tint and cruise package, new car care kit, cargo area organizer, remote start) (Devin)

Minami is given the first number, which is 2.

$2
$2
18
04
35
21
94
62

Minami selects 35 as the second and third numbers of the car.

$23,5
18
04
21
94
62
$2
35

That is correct! Now, Minami picks 62 as the fourth and fifth prices in the car.

$23,5
18
04
21
94
$2
35
62

That is not correct but she has one more chance. Now, Minami picks 94 as the fourth and fifth prices in the car.

$23,594
18
04
21
62
$2
35
94

WIN

Fifth IUFB: Grooming Products (2 maintenance kits, one for him, one for her; acessories and travel pouches); ARP: $730 (Devin)

ADDISON MASON GARRETT LUIS
700 701 575 450

The winner is...
MASON


Mason, the last of the first four, a communications and media relations senior at Kentucky Wesleyan University in Owensboro, Kentucky, is playing One Right Price for:

  1. Electric Moped (Niu: MQi GT with 62mi range, 48volt lithium battery, smart bluetooth app connectivity) (Rachel)
  2. Washer and Dryer (LG: top-load washer and sensor dry dryer with 5 temperature settings; garment steamer) (Devin)

The right price is $4,699. He picks the ...

MOPED   WASHER/DRYER
    $4699
$4699   $3127
    LOSS

Sixth IUFB: Designer Sunglasses (Dolce & Gabanna: 2 pairs for him, 2 pairs for her); ARP: $1,064 (Rachel)

ADDISON MARGARET GARRETT LUIS
2 999 800 1

The winner is...
MARGARET


Margaret, an international relations senior at Loyola Marymount University, is playing Check Out for a trip to Santorini (RT Coach to Santorini, GR for a 6n stay in a cave pool suite at Astarte Suites Hotel + daily breakfast; ARP: $12,634) (Devin).

Guesses   ARPs Differences
3.25 Green Giant Simply Steam Antioxidant Blend Lightly Sauced Mixed Veggies (7oz) $1.89 1.36
2.50 Kellogg"s (of Battle Creek) Zesta Saltine Crackers (16oz) $3.49 .99
3.75 Island Snacks Chili Mango Snacks (4oz) $2.99 .76
2.00 Thai Kitchen Life Unsweetened Coconut Milk (13.66oz) $4.29 2.29
6.00 Crest 3D White Arctic Fresh Toothpaste (3.8oz) $5.99 .01
17.50 Totals 18.65 1.15 WIN

SCSD #2

Contestant Winnings Spin 1 Spin 2 TOTAL RESULT
Mason $730 85 STAY .85 *SHOWCASE*
Margaret $13,698 25 95 1.20
OVER
Minami $25,194 20 60 .80

THE FABULOUS SHOWCASES

Anna has the honors...

SC1 - Anna

MOVE OUT OF THE DORMS
  • Bedroom (Jennifer Taylor Home: bedframe, 2 single-drawer accent side tables; Ghostbed: Venus queen mattress with 2 pillows, mattress protector, cooling sheet, 2 pillowcases) (Rachel)
  • Television (75in QELD 4K smart television with LED backlighting, cinematic surround sound) (Rachel)
  • 2023 Toyota Tacoma SR 4x2 Access Cab (2.7L engine, 6-speed AT, utility package, DEG) (Devin)
Bid: $32,000

SC2 - Mason

GET A JOB
  • Desktop Computer (24in all-in-one computer with 12GB RAM, 256GB HD; printer) (Devin)
  • Designer Wardrobe (Ralph Lauren: jacket, trouses, cashmere sweater, chino pants, wing tips and suede boots for him; wool blazer, ankle pants, sandals, leather boots, ribbed turtleneck, sleeveless dress) (Devin)
  • 2023 Mazda CX-30 Premium (2.5L engine, 6-speed AT, AWD, wheel locks) (Rachel)
Bid: $27,000
Anna
$32,000
ROOM/TRUCK
$36,406
$4,406
ROOM/TRUCK
*WIN*
$38,673.25
Mason
$27,000
SUV
$37,668
$10,668
SUV

Results: 2 out of 6
Winnings: $83,422.25
Biggest Winner: Anna

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« Last Edit: March 15, 2023, 09:30:25 PM by Roadgeek Adam »
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Offline Hockeyman

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I have an interesting strategy for Check-Out that involves having no knowledge of grocery prices and gives you a 5 out of 7 chance according to this seasons stats.  If you put $19.92 on the first price and $0.02 on the other 4, you will get a total of $20.00.  According to TPIR stats, the price was in between $18 to $22 5 out of 7 times this season, which gives you a decent chance of winning.  Overall it was a lower end show today with some bad losses on easy setups.

Online BillyGr

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I have an interesting strategy for Check-Out that involves having no knowledge of grocery prices and gives you a 5 out of 7 chance according to this seasons stats.  If you put $19.92 on the first price and $0.02 on the other 4, you will get a total of $20.00.  According to TPIR stats, the price was in between $18 to $22 5 out of 7 times this season, which gives you a decent chance of winning.  Overall it was a lower end show today with some bad losses on easy setups.

Wouldn't that be kind of obvious, though?  Seems like there are other ways to add up to $20 with 5 items that would be easier (even just saying $4 for each item, though maybe something like randomly assorting a $2, $3, $4, $5 and $6 would be even better).

Offline Briguy

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 :thecheeseisnow:
Wouldn't that be kind of obvious, though?  Seems like there are other ways to add up to $20 with 5 items that would be easier (even just saying $4 for each item, though maybe something like randomly assorting a $2, $3, $4, $5 and $6 would be even better).

I dunno … can you say, “$19.96” for the first item and “1 cent” for the remainder of the items? It doesn’t seem as though the rules specifically prohibit it, but … .

Brian

Offline brosa0

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I thought about that type of play on Check-Out recently and why not?   It's something that the producers probably wouldn't be fond of, but Drew would love it and have a great time with it given he loves the strategies used in different games. 

Offline Roadgeek Adam

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Recap posted. The next show will be Monday, March 20, 2023 for #0161L. I will talk to you when I'm 32 years old.

Enjoy college basketball.
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Offline Grammar-Nazi

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Have a great birthday, Adam. Let March Madness begin!
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Offline Prizes

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I have an interesting strategy for Check-Out that involves having no knowledge of grocery prices and gives you a 5 out of 7 chance according to this seasons stats.  If you put $19.92 on the first price and $0.02 on the other 4, you will get a total of $20.00.  According to TPIR stats, the price was in between $18 to $22 5 out of 7 times this season, which gives you a decent chance of winning.  Overall it was a lower end show today with some bad losses on easy setups.

$18.69 is the magic price in a line of best fit, relative to the Bayesian/credible interval and accounting for error margin of a player's total while considering error margins within the game itself. The last of these two sound similar but they're very different: The former is to compare within internal findings, the latter compares with the game's outer limits ($2.00).

I've hit upon this with long math in a post I made at the end of January. The skew is materially off the normative for car playings, which requires a further look on my end, but this weights for that, perhaps too much so. Notably, the playing quoted was in fact for a car so it didn't win.

Been having some fun with the math, took a look at the last 33 Check-Out playings, including today. The magic number is $18.69 with a decent result in our error margin at a 95% confidence interval that falls well within our acceptable $2 boundary range, since $2, either way is 10.7%(!)* for an acceptable error margin.

Today was special and an exception and loser to the rule, but that total wins you 24 of the last 33 playings or just under 73% without any other info. If it was a more extreme loss it was more likely to be under $16.69. Two of the four times $18.69 lost by being too low of a total, it was roughly within a quarter, or $2.00-$2.25 difference.

*Which arguably tells me $2 is probably too large of a range statistically for this number, and to get the desired win-loss rate of ideal, sharp players, you'd want both of A) Wider variance in price sets/totals and B) More expensive winning raw totals. Not that these need to remotely happen if you're Chris, it's a hard enough game for most players anyway. But Drew's oft-calming axiom is actually right, people in theory should win the game all the time, purely by probability and math dives.
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