A New Pricing Game - Spin Cycle

[123123123]

This would be a simple, but dificult 1-prize game

First, the contestant would be shown the prize they are playing for. Then they are shown the game board. The board consists of two concentric circles with a clear strip across the middle. The larger of the two circles has six panels, and the smaller has four.

The contestant will have three chances to turn the circles so that when read across the clear panel the price of the prize appears. After each turn the contestant is told if either of the circles are correct and which one.

I know the explanation is confusing, so I hope the visuals I made help:

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Hello Carl, welcome up on stage. Now you are going to have the chance to win a trip to China if you can win Spin Cycle



All I want you to do is move these two circles so the price of the trip is in the clear strip (brown rectangle in visual). If you can do that in three tries, you win.

(decided to leave it at $4,830)



Is that right?  BUZZ
Are either of the circles right?  BUZZ

That's all right, try again.

(changes to $6,925)



Is that right?  BUZZ
Are either of the circles right?  DING

Light up the numbers he has right



This is your last chance, make your changes

(changes to $6,295)



Is he a winner

DING, DING, DING



Congrats, I hope you enjoy China

[Swingbatta0]

Genius!

[greg]

Nice!  Simple, easy to understand & different...I like it!

[123123123]

Nice!  Simple, easy to understand & different...I like it!

That's what I was going for! 

[jwatson2973]

That's a good concept.

[TheFuture1105]

Great idea but I see one minor flaw.  No matter how you line the numbers up the two numbers on the right are always going to be upside down.  This is a great idea for a game but visually the game may not work.  Maybe when the set is built they can angle a few mirrors on the inside of the panel so the numbers on the right will appear to be right side up.

[Swingbatta0]

Great idea but I see one minor flaw.  No matter how you line the numbers up the two numbers on the right are always going to be upside down.  This is a great idea for a game but visually the game may not work.  Maybe when the set is built they can angle a few mirrors on the inside of the panel so the numbers on the right will appear to be right side up.

Or they could be on a touchscreen, and the numbers would not be turned around.

[123123123]

Great idea but I see one minor flaw.  No matter how you line the numbers up the two numbers on the right are always going to be upside down.  This is a great idea for a game but visually the game may not work.  Maybe when the set is built they can angle a few mirrors on the inside of the panel so the numbers on the right will appear to be right side up.

Evenmore, if they wanted to save money, it could be made more like Freeze Frame.

[RCPlanes59]

Odds of winning on first try: 1/16
Odds of winning on second try: 1/15 (*15/16, so 1/16 total)

Now is where it gets tricky.
0 circles right: 12/16 chance, 1/16 chance of winning
1 circle right: 3/16 chance, 1/8 chance of winning

1/16 + (15/16)(1/15) + (14/16)(12/16)(1/16) + (14/16)(3/16)(2/16) = 512/4096 + 168/4096 + 84/4096 = 764/4096 = 18.65%

[123123123]

^How come every single game I come up with is so stinking dificult?
(This shold be a warning to all of you the next time I do a HYO) 

[PriceFanArmadillo]

That's because it's not.  You have three tries to get both circles right, which act independently of each other.  The probability of getting the outer ring correct in three tries is 3/6 = 1/2, and the probability of getting the inner ring correct in three tries is 3/4.  Therefore, ignoring any pricing acumen (eg, the 0 in your setup means there are only five possibilities for the outer ring), the probability of victory is 3/8.

However, if you assume that nobody in their right mind is going to pick a price that starts with 0 or 1 for a trip, we're over 50%.

[123123123]

^ That makes more sense.

[vadernader]

Odds of winning on first try: 1/16
Odds of winning on second try: 1/15 (*15/16, so 1/16 total)

Now is where it gets tricky.
0 circles right: 12/16 chance, 1/16 chance of winning
1 circle right: 3/16 chance, 1/8 chance of winning

1/16 + (15/16)(1/15) + (14/16)(12/16)(1/16) + (14/16)(3/16)(2/16) = 512/4096 + 168/4096 + 84/4096 = 764/4096 = 18.65%

Can you explain this further? I think there's a couple mistakes in your calculations.

[123123123]

... the probability of victory is 3/8.

That doesn't make it too easy, does it?

[PriceFanArmadillo]

No.  The only thing that worries me is three chances might make the game drag a little..., if it was my game, I'd probably want to drop the number of chances to two, or even remove the inner lane and make it a one-decision quickie.