The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide

[LiteBulb88]

(Note: no post tomorrow since it's Sunday.)

Danger Price

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_13.html)

Random fact

This game used to have a pirate themed set. Here's a playing of it:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 68-107 (38.86%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/4 (25%)

From seasons 32-46, the prize with the danger price was...

• The prize on the left: 38 playings (24.20%)
• The second prize from the left: 38 playings (24.20%)
• The second prize from the right: 39 playings (24.84%)
• The prize on the far right: 42 playings (26.75%)

Strategy

Know the prices. There's no pattern as to the location of the prize with the danger price or whether that prize is the most expensive, the cheapest, or in between.

[LiteBulb88]

Dice Game

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_15.html)

Random fact

Believe it or not, a contestant did once roll all the numbers in the price of the car in spite of the 1/1296 (0.08%) chance of that happening:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 179-184 (49.31%)
• What it would be by random chance: 625/1296 (48.23%)

Note: That assumes the digits of the car are equally likely to be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, and that you go with the odds on every roll.

Which digit of the car had which value? (Seasons 40-46)

                              Actual value                 
Digit of car    1       2       3       4       5       6   
 2nd digit    23.21%  16.96%   8.93%  16.07%  14.29%  20.54%
 3rd digit    16.07%  18.75%  13.39%  17.86%  15.18%  18.75%
 4th digit    13.39%  14.29%  18.75%  19.64%  17.86%  16.07%
 5th digit     1.79%  15.18%  16.96%  13.39%  42.86%   9.82%
 Overall      16.07%  18.75%  13.39%  17.86%  15.18%  18.75%

Strategy

When I first saw that the actual win-loss record was just barely better than the random chance record, I figured it would be because the producers were using 1s and 6s all over the place, but this turned out to not be true. It's really more a testament to the fact that the producers can add whatever options they want to turn car pricing into a crap shoot (pun not intended.) So here's the strategy:

• 2nd digit: The show rarely offers cars less than $15,000, so if the first number is a 1, feel free to say higher for anything you roll besides 6. Yes, that means if you roll a 5 and the first number is a 1, you should seriously consider saying "higher." On the flip side, if the first digit is a 2 and you roll a 2, you should seriously consider saying "lower."
• 3rd & 4th digits: Go with the odds. Period.
• 5th digit: Go with the odds unless you roll a 4. Look how often the last digit is 5--by saying "higher" on a 4, you're more likely to win than if you say "lower."

[LiteBulb88]

Do the Math

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_16.html)

Random fact

Former CBS & Price is Right employee Scott Robinson came up with the concept that would become this game. He is also a frequent poster here and shared the story of how Do the Math came about:

http://www.golden-road.net/index.php/topic,21931.0.htm

(Sadly, some of the videos and photos that were once in that thread have been lost to time, but it's still a great read.)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 71-46 (60.68%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)

Number of times it was correct to...

• Add: 53 (45.30%)
• Subtract: 64 (54.70%)

Strategy

Forget the actual prices or the amount of money, this is really a game of which prize is more expensive. If the second prize is more expensive, select "plus"; if it's less expensive, select "minus." And don't forget the trip rule--if you're playing for two trips, whichever destination is farther from Los Angeles is the more expensive trip.

[LiteBulb88]

Double Cross

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_17.html)

Random fact

In the game's first playing, there was no think music:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 40-46): 62-34 (64.58%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/4 (25%)

The correct prices were...

• At the very top: 7 playings (7.29%)
• The second from the top: 39 playings (40.63%)
• The second from the bottom: 41 playings (42.71%)
• At the very bottom: 9 playings (9.38%)

Strategy

This game inverts the "pick the endpoints" rule--here, it's DON'T pick the endpoints unless you're absolutely sure the first or last price is right. (I guess the producers actually want this game to be won.) Instead, pick one of the middle two possibilities; which one of those to choose comes down to pricing knowledge.

[AvsFan]

I found out some more patterns for Double Cross. Of the 109 playings from its debut in Season 40 to present:
The average prize cost was $3,625. (The average for prize #1 was $3,639; prize #2, $3,611.) The average difference in the ARPs of a given playing was $1,480. When you consider the 4 possible pairs of prices, the game could be won by picking the pair of prices closest together in price 46 times (42.2%), by picking the pair of prices second-closest together 38 times (34.9%), by picking the pair of prices third-closest together 16 times (14.7%), and by picking the pair of prices farthest away in price 9 times (8.3%).

These numbers change a bit if you separate playings for trips and playings without trips.

Playings for 2 non-trip prizes: 97
Playings for 1 trip and 1 regular prize: 1
Playings for 2 trips: 11

Average price for non-trip prize: $3,408
Average difference in price between 2 non-trip prizes: $1,410
Win by picking prices closest together: 42 (43.3%)
Win by picking prices second-closest together: 35 (36.1%)
Win by picking prices third-closest together: 14 (14.4%)
Win by picking prices farthest apart: 6 (6.2%)

Average price for trip: $5,464
Average difference in price between 2 non-trip prizes: $1,912
Win by picking prices closest together: 4 (36.4%)
Win by picking prices second-closest together: 3 (27.3%)
Win by picking prices third-closest together: 1 (9.1%)
Win by picking prices farthest apart: 3 (27.3%)

For all playings, last digit of a prize by frequency: 5 > 9 > 0 > 8 > 3,4 > 6 > 1,7 > 2

In conclusion, if you really don’t know what to do, picking one of the two combinations of prices that are closest together is more likely to yield a win- especially if you’re not playing for trips. Besides that, remember that over half of all prizes have ended in the digits 5, 9, or 0.

[LiteBulb88]

I found out some more patterns for Double Cross. Of the 109 playings from its debut in Season 40 to present:
(followed by lots of great data)

Awesome! Thanks so much--I would've never thought to look at the difference in price between the two prizes. I'm a bit busy right now, but I will add this info to the blog.

[LiteBulb88]

Double Prices

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_18.html)

Random fact

Double Prices has been played more than any other game in the show's history.

Random review

Our own gamesurf wrote one about this game that's of the most poetic things I've ever read about anything on The Price is Right. Here's how it starts:

"Bless you, Double Prices.

You are the glue that holds the show together. The common, unpretentious, one prize quickie, meant to save time so that longer games may exist..."

If you want to read the whole thing, click here:

http://www.golden-road.net/index.php/topic,681.msg466117.html#msg466117

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 316-215 (59.51%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)

The correct price was...

• The more expensive price: 257 playings (48.40%)
• The less expensive price: 274 playings (51.60%)

Strategy

The pair rule can help here--if you're playing for 2 of the exact same thing (e.g. 2 identical motorcycles, 2 identical surfboards, etc.), the price will almost certainly end in an even number. Otherwise, know the price.

[Ton80]

The correct price was...

• The more expensive price: 257 playings (48.40%)
• The less expensive price: 274 playings (51.60%)

Do you have any stats on how often the TOP price was correct, vs the BOTTOM price?

[LiteBulb88]

I don't have that. However, when I was writing that article, I did some checking of Youtube & recap guides, and it looked to me like the top price is always the higher price while the bottom price is always the lower price. If that's true, then, of course, there's no need to consider top/bottom separately from higher/lower.

[LiteBulb88]

Special note: I fly to the US later this afternoon for a three week business trip. I still plan to post every day except Sunday, however, my posts may come much later in the day (think 6 PM US Eastern Time instead of 10 AM Central European Time.)

Eazy Az 1-2-3

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_19.html)

Random fact

There was another game on the show, Clearance Sale, that was functionally equivalent to this one. But Eazy Az 1-2-3 was introduced first and has gotten a lot more love than Clearance Sale ever did. Here's a video of Clearance Sale if you want to judge for yourself:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 129-110 (53.97%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/6 (16.67%)

The correct ordering of the blocks was (seasons 31-46)...

• 1-2-3: 24 playings (13.04%)
• 1-3-2: 16 playings (8.70%)
• 2-1-3: 55 playings (29.89%)
• 2-3-1: 19 playings (10.33%)
• 3-1-2: 44 playings (23.91%)
• 3-2-1: 26 playings (14.13%)

Strategy

Know the prices. If you're completely clueless about the prices, put block #1 in the middle, as it's belonged there 53.8% of the time, then make an educated guess about blocks 2 and 3.

[Tech_Triumph]

Eazy Az 1-2-3

The problem I have with this game and other comparison games such as Do the Math is when they put designer accessories and a smart-TV together. The prices of those items have a really large spread and it's hard to differentiate sometimes.

The only thing I can come up with is the TV is expensive if it's curved or if it's a larger size. Handbags seem to be more expensive than the shoes.

But other than that...it's a guess for me.

[AvsFan]

Fun fact: Eazy Az 1-2-3 hasn't offered two prices in the same thousand-dollar tier since the 12/12/12 episode, where a $2,999 TV and $2,390 in shoes were the two most expensive prizes.
Also, 20 of the last 22 playings have offered one $1,xxx prize, one $2,xxx prize, and one $3,xxx prize.

[LiteBulb88]

(Note: no post tomorrow since it's Sunday.)

Five Price Tags

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_20.html)

Random fact

This game was host to one of the more memorable bloopers of recent years on the show:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 65-114 (36.31%)
• What it would be by random chance: 2/5 (40%)

The correct price...<voice from offstage again.> Hold it, hold it, hold it. I thought Cover Up was bad with its win rate just above random chance. But now you're telling me people play Five Price Tags WORSE than random chance?!?! What in the ?!?!?!

Ugh. You again. I thought I shooed you off after Cover Up was over. Nope. Nice try.

OK, OK, I'll get there and this time it'll be pretty quick. Happy? Yup!

Small Prize Pricing

Let's start with the first half of this game, the pricing of the small prizes. The "worse record than random chance" will become clear pretty quickly...

# of times _____ was correct (seasons 32-46)

• True: 359 prizes (60.64%)
• False: 233 prizes (39.36%)

# of times the contestant chose (seasons 32-46)

• True: 129 prizes (21.79%)
• False: 463 prizes (78.21%)

Any questions on where the discrepancy comes from? Yikes. The contestants love to say "false"; the producers know this and make most of the prizes "true." Remember, things almost always cost more than you think! So here's the strategy for this part...

Strategy (small prize portion)

If you have any doubt, CHOOSE TRUE!!!!!!! Though don't forget the "all choices will not be the same" rule; at least one price will be false. But if you just choose true for everything, you're very likely to get at least 2, if not 3, picks. From seasons 40-46, here was how often different combinations of true and false came up:

• 1 True, 3 False: 5 playings (6.58%)
• 2 True, 2 False: 20 playings (26.32%)
• 3 True, 1 False: 51 playings (67.11%)

It was never the case that all four prices were true or all four prices were false. But choosing true for all four prizes would have gotten you at least two picks over 93% of the time.

Car Pricing

If you followed my advice above, you should have two, if not three, choices for the price of the car. Let's look at some stats for this portion of the game...

Correct car price was...(seasons 32-46)

• Tag #1 (the top tag): 35 playings (23.65%)
• Tag #2: 23 playings (15.54%)
• Tag #3: 19 playings (12.84%)
• Tag #4: 30 playings (20.27%)
• Tag #5 (the bottom tag): 41 playings (27.70%)

• The cheapest shown price: 53 playings (35.81%)
• The second cheapest shown price: 52 playings (35.14%)
• The middle shown price: 8 playings (5.41%)
• The second most expensive shown price: 17 playings (11.49%)
• The most expensive shown price: 18 playings (12.16%)

Strategy (car pricing portion)

Remember the pick the endpoints rule. Choose the bottom tag and then the top tag. If they're both wrong, then choose the cheapest price left unless the top and bottom tags were the two most expensive prices; if that's the case, then choose the most expensive price left.

[WilliamPorygon]

Strategy (car pricing portion)

Remember the pick the endpoints rule. Choose the bottom tag and then the top tag. If they're both wrong, then choose the cheapest price left unless the top and bottom tags were the two most expensive prices; if that's the case, then choose the most expensive price left.

Shouldn't that be "...unless the top and bottom tags were the two least expensive prices?"

Love this series by the way.   

[LiteBulb88]

ACK! It sure should be. I've updated my blog post. Thanks!!