The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide

[LiteBulb88]

It's worth adding: We see at least a couple times a season people try to win this game by pretending it's Bullseye and hitting the target in one product. NOT a good idea. DON'T do it. It's about as good an idea as looking at the audience in Bonkers It usually leads to a spectacular flameout, which is very avoidable.

Very true. Especially the part about it being as good of an idea as looking at the audience in Bonkers  .

[LiteBulb88]

1/2 Off

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_66.html)

Random fact

This game is usually played for $10,000, but occasionally is played for more. Here's a playing they show while you're at a taping waiting to get in to the studio:

Win-loss record:

• Actual (seasons 32-46): 83-179 (31.68%)
• What it would be by random chance: 27/128 (21.09%)

The money was in box #...(seasons 40-46):

• 4 playings (3.10%)
• 8 playings (6.20%)
• 6 playings (4.65%)
• 9 playings (6.98%)
• 9 playings (6.98%)
• 9 playings (6.98%)
• 6 playings (4.65%)
• 8 playings (6.20%)
• 8 playings (6.20%)
• 7 playings (5.43%)
• 11 playings (8.53%)
• 10 playings (7.75%)
• 5 playings (3.88%)
• 13 playings (10.08%)
• 10 playings (7.75%)
• 6 playings (4.65%)

The prize with the 1/2 off price was...(seasons 40-46)

• On the left: 196 prizes (50.65%)
• On the right: 191 prizes (49.35%)

• The one with the smaller given price: 216 prizes (55.81%)
• The one with the larger given price: 171 prizes (44.19%)

# of times the following left/right combinations were correct (seasons 40-46)

• All three on the left were correct: 14 playings (10.85%)
• Two on the left and one on the right were correct: 43 playings (33.33%)
• One on the left and two on the right were correct: 61 playings (47.29%)
• All three on the right were correct: 11 playings (8.53%)

If one price was even and the other odd, the correct one to select was...(seasons 40-46)

• The even price: 30 prizes (16.04%)
• The odd price: 157 prizes (83.96%)

Strategy

Part 1: Pricing
As you can see by the stats above, it's mostly know the price with one major exception: if one given price is even and one is odd, go with the odd price unless you're sure the even price is the 1/2 off price. For example, if the given prices are $15 and $40, choose $15. But if both prices are even or both are odd, choose the one you think is 1/2 off. If you're not sure at all, choose the smaller given price, but as you can see, the producers are pretty good at making sure that's not a consistent trend in this game.

Part 2: Which box to choose?
First off, don't bother looking at the audience for this, as they have no more clue than you do. If you really want to go by stats, pick the first box in this list that is still available: 14, 11, (12,15), (4,5,6), (2,8,9), 10, (3,7,16) ,13, 1. The numbers in parenthesis are tied, so if you see 12 and 15 left, it's a tossup. The problem with using a list like this, though, is it's very dependent on which seasons you choose to analyze, so if you want to go with your favorite number, I have no problem with that. However, two principles do apply here:

• Pick the endpoints does NOT apply. 1 and 16 are among the least frequent boxes to see the money.
• Try to figure out if the show is in budget mode. Pay attention to the setups earlier in the show to see if the show is in budget mode. For example, if a car in Lucky $even is $21,298, that's a clue the show is in budget mode, as those numbers are all far from 5. But if the price is $24,654, then the show is less likely to be in budget mode. If the show is in budget mode, then go for the more unlikely boxes like 1, 13, and 16. If not, then go for the more standard choices like 11, 12, and 14. Of course, if 1/2 Off is the first game played, then this principle won't help you.

[LiteBulb88]

Hi Lo

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_50.html)

Random fact

This game used to be wheeled out on to the stage and the grocery items described before the main prize was revealed. This changed in 2008 to a standard reveal of the main prize first and then the game.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 87-122 (41.63%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/20 (5%)

How often was product X one of the 3 highest priced products (seasons 40-46)?

• 1 (left most product): 31 playings (64.58%)
• 2: 16 playings (33.33%)
• 3: 25 playings (52.08%)
• 4: 25 playings (52.08%)
• 5: 26 playings (54.17%)
• 6 (right most product): 21 playings (43.75%)

Strategy

"Pick the endpoints" is only half true here, as the product on the far right is correct the 2nd-least amount, but the product on the far left is correct the most often. So if you're not sure, pick that one. Besides that, know the prices.

[LiteBulb88]

Hole in One (or Two)

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy.html)

Random fact

Bob or Drew usually attempts an inspiration putt before the contestant tries their putt(s), but sometimes they let others take the putt. Here's one instance where Janice had a rather unbelievable result:

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46): 96-51 (65.31%)

Record by which line the contestant putted from (seasons 32-46):

• Line #1 (farthest from the hole): 12-16 (42.86%)
• Line #2: 16-14 (53.33%)
• Line #3: 12-10 (54.55%)
• Line #4: 18-2 (90%)
• Line #5: 7-0 (100%)
• Line #6 (closest to the hole): 8-0 (100%)

Strategy

Most importantly: practice your mini-golf before you go to the studio! Even the line the farthest away from the hole really isn't that far away if you can control your nerves. No matter what time of year it is, there are plenty of places in LA to play a round and you've got a good excuse to find one . Otherwise, the strategy is to know the prices of the grocery items. That said, if there are one or two you're not sure of, skip those until the end. It's much better to have five right and put a $1.99 item at the end than it is to have nothing right because you weren't sure of the ordering of the first two items.

[jhc2010]

Otherwise, the strategy is to know the prices of the grocery items. That said, if there are one or two you're not sure of, skip those until the end. It's much better to have five right and put a $1.99 item at the end than it is to have nothing right because you weren't sure of the ordering of the first two items.

I agree that this is the correct way to play the game since the $500 bonus is peanuts in 2019. Has a contestant ever tried this strategy?

[SuperSweeper]

I agree that this is the correct way to play the game since the $500 bonus is peanuts in 2019. Has a contestant ever tried this strategy?

Given how long the game has been around, I’d say yes. 

A contestant used that strategy at one of the TPiR Live shows that I attended - and they ended up winning.

[LiteBulb88]

Hot Seat

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_2.html)

Random fact

Hot Seat is the second newest game on the show, having debuted in season 45. Thus, I'll be including season 47 stats in this article.

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46):

• Actual (seasons 45-47):  4-41 (8.89%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/32 (3.13%)

For each prize, how often was it higher or lower?

  Prize    Higher  Lower
 1 (left)    21     24
    2        15     30
    3        27     18
    4        22     23
 5 (right)   23     22

How often were different combinations of higher and lower correct?

• All 5 prizes were higher: 0 playings (0%)
• 4 prizes were higher, 1 was lower: 1 playing (2.22%)
• 3 prizes were higher, 2 were lower: 18 playings (40.00%)
• 2 prizes were higher, 3 were lower: 24 playings (53.33%)
• 1 prize was higher, 4 were lower: 2 playings (4.44%)
• All 5 prizes were lower: 0 playings (0%)

Strategy

Part 1: Guessing higher/lower. This is tricky because you don't really have much time to think. You have 35 seconds for all 5 items, which is 7 seconds per item, but that doesn't include the time it takes to travel between items. Thus, you need to go with your gut on each prize. If you can, try to make it so you guessed higher 3 times and lower twice or higher twice and lower 3 times, as those are by far the two most common combinations. But you can't go back to a previous prize and you're under time pressure, so don't spend too much brain power keeping track of that.

Part 2: The reveal. What's interesting about this part is they take you through all the items you got right first, but they never state that they take you through the correct items randomly. My hunch--and I have no data to back this up, so this is strictly a hunch--is that they go from easiest to hardest. In order words, the first item they take you to will be obviously correct. Then with each item, it's less and less obvious that it's correct. Thus, if they take you to an item that was hard for you to guess right, then they're probably getting closer to the end of the items you got right. So you can try to think through how hard each item was to get right to decide if you want to continue or not.

As for bailing out, the numbers say you should always go on as long as your guess was even in the slightest bit educated. The money amounts always at least double, so anything greater than a 50% chance of being right means you should continue. However, be careful with that. For many people, the difference between $0 and $10,000 is MUCH greater than the difference between $10,000 and $20,000--the former could mean paying off long overdue bills and getting a savings fund started while the latter would be icing on the cake you use to travel. So keep that in mind as you're playing.

[LiteBulb88]

(Note: no post tomorrow since it's Sunday.)

It's in the Bag

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_4.html)

Random fact

Whenever this game is won, it's a special moment due to its rarity, but I was lucky enough to see this one in the studio. It's easily my favorite It's in the Bag win ever. I got to meet Sharon after the show and she's a wonderful woman. Here it is:

Win-loss record:

• Actual (seasons 29-46):  24-313 (7.12%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/720 (0.14%)
• If you know the first two items and pick the rest by random chance: 1/24 (4.17%)

How often each item was in each bag (seasons 45-47)

Bag #    BL TL BM TM BR TR
None      2 15  1 13  5  9
1 (left) 10  0 17  5 13  0
2        15  3  8  2  9  8
3         8 10  3  9  9  4
4         9 11  5  4  2 11
5 (right) 1  5  9 11  7 10
(How to read that table: B stands for "bottom", T for "top", L for "left", M for "middle", and R for "right". For example, "BL" stands for "bottom left"; the item in the bottom left corner of the initial display has been in no bag 2 times, bag #1 10 times, bag #2 15 times, and so on. Also, the reason I started at season 45 is that the on-line guides I used to get this data only started showing the positions of the items on the initial display in season 45.)

Strategy

Know the prices. This game may be the purest test of grocery pricing the show has. That said, the first two bags are always set up to be easy--the first bag is usually the obviously cheapest item and the second bag is usually the obviously most expensive item. Sometimes, they're even nice enough to make the third bag easy--it's often the obviously second-most expensive item. But bags 4 and 5 are where this game is won or lost, and there are no real patterns to suggest here, except maybe that the top left and top middle products are the most often to not be in any bag at all. That's not a very large sample size I have to work with, though, so use that fact with care. But if you know your grocery prices, $16,000 is yours!

[LiteBulb88]

Let 'em Roll

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_6.html)

Random fact

Believe it or not, this game has been won in one roll. See it here:

Win-loss record:

• Actual (seasons 29-46):  99-128 (43.61%)
• What it would be by random chance: 33383/131072 (25.47%)

Was the correct choice higher or lower? (seasons 40-46)

First choice

• Higher: 54 playings (71.05%)
• Lower: 22 playings (28.95%)

Second choice

• Higher: 43 playings (56.58%)
• Lower: 33 playings (43.42%)

Overall

• Higher: 77 times (63.82%)
• Lower: 55 times (36.18%)

Were the two choices the same or different? (seasons 40-46)

• The same (both higher or both lower): 51 playings (67.11%)
• Different (one higher and one lower): 25 playings (33.89%)

Strategy

Part 1: Pricing. There's nothing foolproof here, so knowing the prices is best. But note that higher is correct more often than lower, especially for the first choice. Also note that more than 2/3 of the time, the second choice is the same as the first choice. Those facts can help you.

Part 2: Should you stay or should you roll on? Like I talked about in Gas Money, you need to decide what the value of the car is to you. Are you going to sell it? Then the value is whatever you can sell it for? Are you going to turn it down? Then the value is $0. Are you going to keep it? Then the value is whatever the announced value is. Once you have that, here are the tables that tell you whether you should keep playing or not. The amount shown in each spot is the minimum value of the car that it should be for you to take another roll, rounded to the nearest dollar. N/A means that combination is not possible.

If you have two rolls left...
         Number of dice left
Cash    1     2     3     4       5
$500   $333  N/A   N/A   N/A     N/A
$1000 $1000  $889  N/A   N/A     N/A
$1500 $1667 $1778 $1778  N/A     N/A
$2000  N/A  $2667 $2963  $3160   N/A
$2500  N/A  $3556 $4148  $4741  $5267
$3000  N/A  $4444 $5333  $6321  $7374
$3500  N/A   N/A  $6519  $7901  $9481
$4000  N/A   N/A  $7703  $9481 $11588
$4500  N/A   N/A  $8889 $11062 $13695
$5000  N/A   N/A   N/A  $12642 $15802
$5500  N/A   N/A   N/A  $14222 $17909
$6000  N/A   N/A   N/A  $15802 $20016
$6500  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   $22123
$7000  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   $24230
$7500  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   $26337

If you have one roll left...
         Number of dice left
Cash    1     2     3       4       5
$500   $0    N/A   N/A     N/A     N/A
$1000 $1000  $0    N/A     N/A     N/A
$1500 $2000 $2000   $0     N/A     N/A
$2000  N/A  $4000 $4000    $0      N/A
$2500  N/A  $6000 $8000   $8000    $0
$3000  N/A  $8000 $12000 $16000  $16000
$3500  N/A   N/A  $16000 $24000  $32000
$4000  N/A   N/A  $20000 $32000  $48000
$4500  N/A   N/A  $24000 $40000  $64000
$5000  N/A   N/A   N/A   $48000  $80000
$5500  N/A   N/A   N/A   $56000  $96000
$6000  N/A   N/A   N/A   $64000 $112000
$6500  N/A   N/A   N/A     N/A  $128000
$7000  N/A   N/A   N/A     N/A  $144000
$7500  N/A   N/A   N/A     N/A  $160000

[PunchABunchFan]

Regarding It's in the Bag -

If you are fortunate enough to make it to the last item, DON'T FORGET THE UNUSED ITEM!!  In deciding whether to go for it, you now basically have a 50/50 question as to whether the product you chose is $X.XX or whether the unchosen product is that amount - one of the two is!  If you're confident that the unchosen product is not the price on the bag - go for it.  Don't neglect this useful piece of information!

[ooboh]

Let 'em Roll

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_6.html)

Random fact

Believe it or not, this game has been won in one roll. See it here:

Win-loss record:

• Actual (seasons 29-46):  99-128 (43.61%)
• What it would be by random chance: 33383/131072 (25.47%)

Was the correct choice higher or lower? (seasons 40-46)

First choice

• Higher: 54 playings (71.05%)
• Lower: 22 playings (28.95%)

Second choice

• Higher: 43 playings (56.58%)
• Lower: 33 playings (43.42%)

Overall

• Higher: 77 times (63.82%)
• Lower: 55 times (36.18%)

Were the two choices the same or different? (seasons 40-46)

• The same (both higher or both lower): 51 playings (67.11%)
• Different (one higher and one lower): 25 playings (33.89%)

Strategy

Part 1: Pricing. There's nothing foolproof here, so knowing the prices is best. But note that higher is correct more often than lower, especially for the first choice. Also note that more than 2/3 of the time, the second choice is the same as the first choice. Those facts can help you.

Part 2: Should you stay or should you roll on? Like I talked about in Gas Money, you need to decide what the value of the car is to you. Are you going to sell it? Then the value is whatever you can sell it for? Are you going to turn it down? Then the value is $0. Are you going to keep it? Then the value is whatever the announced value is. Once you have that, here are the tables that tell you whether you should keep playing or not. The amount shown in each spot is the minimum value of the car that it should be for you to take another roll, rounded to the nearest dollar. N/A means that combination is not possible.

If you have two rolls left...
         Number of dice left
Cash    1     2     3     4       5
$500   $333  N/A   N/A   N/A     N/A
$1000 $1000  $889  N/A   N/A     N/A
$1500 $1667 $1778 $1778  N/A     N/A
$2000  N/A  $2667 $2963  $3160   N/A
$2500  N/A  $3556 $4148  $4741  $5267
$3000  N/A  $4444 $5333  $6321  $7374
$3500  N/A   N/A  $6519  $7901  $9481
$4000  N/A   N/A  $7703  $9481 $11588
$4500  N/A   N/A  $8889 $11062 $13695
$5000  N/A   N/A   N/A  $12642 $15802
$5500  N/A   N/A   N/A  $14222 $17909
$6000  N/A   N/A   N/A  $15802 $20016
$6500  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   $22123
$7000  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   $24230
$7500  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   $26337

If you have one roll left...
         Number of dice left
Cash    1     2     3       4       5
$500   $0    N/A   N/A     N/A     N/A
$1000 $1000  $0    N/A     N/A     N/A
$1500 $2000 $2000   $0     N/A     N/A
$2000  N/A  $4000 $4000    $0      N/A
$2500  N/A  $6000 $8000   $8000    $0
$3000  N/A  $8000 $12000 $16000  $16000
$3500  N/A   N/A  $16000 $24000  $32000
$4000  N/A   N/A  $20000 $32000  $48000
$4500  N/A   N/A  $24000 $40000  $64000
$5000  N/A   N/A   N/A   $48000  $80000
$5500  N/A   N/A   N/A   $56000  $96000
$6000  N/A   N/A   N/A   $64000 $112000
$6500  N/A   N/A   N/A     N/A  $128000
$7000  N/A   N/A   N/A     N/A  $144000
$7500  N/A   N/A   N/A     N/A  $160000

How did you calculate the expected values for determining the minimum values for justifying continuing?

[LiteBulb88]

I'll demonstrate with an example. Say you have $1,000 in cash with 1 non-car die and 1 roll left. Here's the math:

Let x be the value of the car to you. Then since there are three cars on that last die, one side with $500, one side with $1,000, and one side with $1,500, your expected return on that die is:

1/2 * x + 1/6 * 500 + 1/6 * 1000 + 1/6 * 1500 = 1/2 * x + 500

Since you currently have $1,000, the value of x where the expected value of the roll and the amount of cash you have right now are equal is:

1/2 * x + 500 = 1000
x = 1000

So if the car is worth more than $1,000 to you, you should roll on, if it's less than $1,000 to you, don't. The math gets hairier when you deal with multiple dice and multiple rolls, but that's the idea.

[LiteBulb88]

Line em up

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_7.html)

Random fact

They have never used a car in this game that has cost $20,000 or more.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 90-114 (44.33%)
• Probability of winning by random chance: 2/9 (22.22%)

For each prize, which digit was correct? (seasons 40-46)

First prize (second car digit):

• 1st digit was correct: 34 playings (35.79%)
• 2nd digit was correct: 29 playings (30.53%)
• 3rd digit was correct: 32 playings (33.68%)
• Smallest digit was correct: 15 playings (15.79%)
• 2nd smallest digit was correct: 39 playings (41.05%)
• Largest digit was correct: 41 playings (43.16%)

Second prize (third car digit):

• 1st digit was correct: 47 playings (49.47%)
• 2nd digit was correct: 48 playings (50.53%)
• Smaller digit was correct: 57 playings (60.00%)
• Larger digit was correct: 38 playings (40.00%)

Third prize (fourth car digit):

• 1st digit was correct: 26 playings (27.37%)
• 2nd digit was correct: 42 playings (44.21%)
• 3rd digit was correct: 27 playings (28.42%)
• Smallest digit was correct: 31 playings (32.63%)
• 2nd smallest digit was correct: 36 playings (37.89%)
• Largest digit was correct: 28 playings (29.47%)

Strategy

Mostly know the price, though you can get some clues from the above trends. For the second digit of the car, it's uncommon for the smallest digit in the corresponding prize's price to be correct; for example, if that prize is $675, it's uncommon for 5 to be the correct digit. For the third digit, it's usually the smaller option, and for the fourth digit, the second digit is correct more frequently than the other two digits. So that would make a good first guess if you're clueless. Also, remember you're more likely to have the middle digit right than the second or fourth digit simply because there are only two digits to choose from. So if you have two correct, it's a good bet the middle digit is one of the two--by random chance, given that you have two correct, you have an 80% chance of having the middle digit and one other correct but only a 20% chance of having the first and third digits correct.

Also, don't forget about the "consecutive digits besides the first two don't repeat" rule. Just be a little careful--there was exactly one playing in every season from season 43-46 inclusive that broke that rule. However, no playings in season 47 broke that rule.

[Flerbert419]

Random fact

They have never used a car in this game that has cost $20,000 or more.

I'm not sure where this came from but it's not true.

[LiteBulb88]

I'm not sure where this came from but it's not true.

It came from my own research. As I was looking at the stats, I noted the first prize (second car digit) was typically $500 or above, which would make the use of $20,000 cars unlikely, so I checked. I unfortunately missed the playing you linked to. That said, I appreciate the correction, and I've updated my blog post.