The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide

[JayC]

Something else to keep mind of in Line em Up is that the price of the car can have a 0 as the 3rd or 4th digit, so don't assume that it won't be 0. Five cars used in season 47 had a 0 in the price in these spots, including the final three playings. Before last season there was only a 0 in the price in at most two playings from seasons 40-46.

[LiteBulb88]

Lucky $even

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_8.html)

Random fact

I never thought I'd see this game played perfectly, but it happened not too long ago:

(Jump ahead to the 4:00 mark to see the Lucky $even playing.)

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46):152-365 (29.40%)

# of times each digit had each value (seasons 40-46):

All cars:
              Digit of car
Number  2nd    3rd     4th    5th           Overall
  1    16.98%  6.60%  3.77%  3.77%            7.78%
  2     9.91% 16.04% 11.32% 13.68%           12.74%
  3     8.02% 11.79% 10.85% 11.32%           10.50%
  4     7.55%  8.96%  8.02%  8.96%            8.37%
  5     2.83%  5.19%  5.19% 12.26%            6.37%
  6     8.96% 10.38%  7.08%  3.30%            7.43%
  7    11.79%  8.96% 11.79%  6.60%            9.79%
  8    14.15% 18.39% 16.04% 11.32%           14.98%
  9    19.81% 13.68% 25.00% 25.47%           20.99%
 NR*    0.00%  0.00%  0.94%  3.30%            1.06%
*Not revealed

First digit of the car is 1:
              Digit of car
Number  2nd    3rd     4th    5th           Overall
  1     0.00%  6.36%  5.45%  0.00%            2.96%
  2     0.00% 15.45% 13.64% 20.00%           12.27%
  3     0.00% 10.00%  9.09% 10.00%            7.27%
  4     1.82%  5.45%  6.36% 10.91%            6.14%
  5     1.82%  5.45%  5.45% 13.64%            6.59%
  6    11.82% 13.64%  8.18%  2.73%            9.09%
  7    20.00%  9.09% 10.00%  5.45%           11.14%
  8    26.36% 19.09% 17.27% 11.82%           18.64%
  9    38.18% 15.45% 23.64% 22.73%           25.00%
 NR*    0.00%  0.00%  0.91%  2.73%            0.01%
*Not revealed

First digit of the car is 2:
              Digit of car
Number  2nd    3rd     4th    5th           Overall
  1    36.84%  6.32%  2.11%  8.42%           13.42%
  2    17.89% 16.84%  7.37%  6.32%           12.11%
  3    17.89% 14.74% 13.68% 12.63%           14.73%
  4    14.74% 11.58%  9.47%  7.37%           10.79%
  5     4.21%  5.26%  4.21%  7.37%            5.26%
  6     5.26%  6.32%  5.26%  4.21%            5.26%
  7     2.11%  8.42% 13.68%  8.42%            8.16%
  8     1.05% 18.94% 15.79% 10.53%           11.58%
  9     0.00% 11.58% 27.37% 30.53%           17.37%
 NR*    0.00%  0.00%  1.05%  4.21%            1.32%
*Not revealed

Two notes:

• They have not used a 0 as a digit in the car's price in Lucky $even in a long time.
• There have been 6 playings of Lucky $even for cars $30,000 or more; that's not enough data to draw conclusions from, thus, no table.

Strategy

Don't pick 4, 5, or 6!! You can see how infrequently 4, 5, and 6 are used in the digits of the price. There are only two exceptions:

• If you believe they really want you to win the car, go for the middle numbers. For example, during the season opening week or sometimes during Dream Car week, they want you to win, and they'll give you an easy price like $57,465 (an actual price in season 43.)
• If you're on the last digit and have at least $5 left, then guessing 5 will guarantee winning.

But usually the price is going to be more like $21,298 (an actual price from season 47.) How do you know whether to go low or high? The second digit you can figure out based on the kind of car. But the third and beyond...they can add whatever options they want to give you a price with numbers nowhere near the middle. There is a bit of a trend, though: they generally use 7, 8, and 9 more often than 1, 2, and 3, especially for the last digit. So if you're not sure, go high (meaning, guess a 7 or 8.) But you can also guess a 2 or a 3 and I won't object. But again: don't pick 4, 5, or 6!! Yes, you'll lose quickly if you guess a 2 and it's a 9, but picking 4, 5, and 6 all but guarantees a slow loss. By guessing low or high numbers, you at least have a chance.

[jhc2010]

I’ve thought that going one extreme or the other (not 4/5/6) for the 3rd number is correct strategy but when you guess on the correct end of the extreme, you almost need to go more toward the center so you don’t get crushed in one number on the 4th digit.

[LiteBulb88]

Magic #

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_9.html)

Random fact

The prop used in this game once took on a life of its own:

Win-loss record (seasons 32-46): 65-67 (49.24%)

Number of losses that were caused by...

• Setting the magic number too low: 66 (98.51% of all losses)
• Setting the magic number too high: 1 (1.49% of all losses)

Range of values for each prize (seasons 42-47)

• The cheaper prize: $1,199-$2,970
• The more expensive prize: $3,295-$8,990

Strategy

Set the magic number to $3,000. Yes, the audience will boo you after you get above about $1,500, and you'll probably start to feel like it just shouldn't take that long, but you must ignore both things. After all, only 1 person has set the magic number too high in the history of this game. A magic number of $3,000 has won this game in every playing since the start of season 42 and I highly doubt they're going to start having the higher price prize be under $3,000 any time soon--that would be extremely cheap. In fact, they haven't used a higher-priced prize under $4,000 since the middle of season 43. Thus, if anything, it wouldn't surprise me if you need to set the magic number higher than $3,000 to win at some point in the future, but you certainly won't be over if you set the number to $3,000.

[AvsFan]

From seasons 42-46, the average range between the two prizes was over $3,150- there was even one $6,200 range in season 44. Yet, contestants only won ~55% of the playings in that time span. I think we need to make "magic-number-too-low-itis" an official medical term.

[Kev347]

The $5000 minimum prize package rule means the 2nd prize value in Magic # will certainly never be under $2502 But it's good to know that $3000 is undefeated in the last 6 seasons as well.

[Axl]

Yes, you'll lose quickly if you guess a 2 and it's a 9, but picking 4, 5, and 6 all but guarantees a slow loss. By guessing low or high numbers, you at least have a chance.

Although I have to admit, I always enjoy Drew's disgusted reaction when people choose 5. 

[LiteBulb88]

Make Your Move

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_48.html)

Random fact

This game is usually easy for contestants to understand, but not always:

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46):

• Actual (seasons 29-46):  83-110 (43.01%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/6 (16.67%)

Number of times the correct solution was... (seasons 43-47)

• [XX][YYY][ZZZZ]: 2 playings (4.17%)
• [XX][ZZZZ][YYY]: 12 playings (25.00%)
• [YYY][XX][ZZZZ]: 6 playings (12.50%)
• [YYY][ZZZZ][XX]: 8 playings (16.67%)
• [ZZZZ][XX][YYY]: 13 playings (25.00%)
• [ZZZZ][YYY][XX]: 7 playings (14.58%)

Range of values for each prize (seasons 43-47)

• Two digit prize: $18-$95
• Three digit prize: $508-$995
• Four digit prize: $5,129-$9,931

Strategy

Mostly know the prices, but the following tips can help you:

• As you can see, the three digit prize and the four digit prize always have a price that starts with 5 or greater. So any solution that violates this rule should be discarded immediately.
• As a corollary to the first point, if the first number in the row is 4 or less, it means the first two digits are the price of the two digit prize.
• They very rarely have the [XX][YYY][ZZZZ] solution. So be sure of the prices before you choose that ordering--if you have any doubt at all, go for something else. In fact, be sure before you choose the last four digits in the row as the price of the four digit prize, no matter which ordering of the first two prizes you choose.
• If you see a "99" anywhere in the row, it's very likely not the ending of any of the prizes. From seasons 43 to 47, only 3 of the 48 four digit prizes have ended in -99 and none of the two digit prizes has ended in -99.

[LiteBulb88]

Master Key

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_10.html)

Random fact

On April 15, 2019, I...errr, the contestant who played Master Key found both the car key and the master key. That hadn't happened since November 4, 2009, almost 10 years earlier. You can see my...errr, the April 15, 2019 playing here:

(Jump ahead to the 40:00 mark to see the Master Key playing.)

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46):

• Actual (seasons 29-46):  58-88 (39.73%)
• What it would be by random chance: 3/8 (37.5%)

<voice from offstage> Hey! The win rate is just barely better than random chance?! Really? Are the small prizes that hard to guess the price of?

Oh, you again. No, the small prizes aren't that hard to guess the price of. Contestants are just too predictable, and the producers take advantage of that. Read on...

For the small prizes, the correct price was...(seasons 40-47)

• The cheaper price: 65 prizes (52.42%)
• The more expensive price: 59 prizes (51.94%)
• The price on the left: 38 prizes (30.65%)
• The price on the right: 86 prizes (69.35%)

The contestant chose which key? (seasons 40-47)

• Key #1 (the left-most key): 10 playings (17.24%)
• Key #2: 16 playings (27.59%)
• Key #3: 16 playings (27.59%)
• Key #4: 18 playings (31.03%)
• Key #5 (the right-most key): 12 playings (20.69%)

Note: the above percentages add up to more than 100% due to the possibility of winning 2 keys.

Which key went to which lock? (seasons 40-47)

          Cheap Middle Car Master
Key  Dud  Prize Prize  Key  Key 
 1    2     2     0     2    4
 2    7     1     3     5    0
 3    1     7     6     1    1
 4    5     8     2     2    1
 5    2     1     3     1    5

Strategy

Part 1: Small prize pricing.
Mostly it's know the prices, but if you're not sure, the price on the right is correct twice as often as the price on the left.

Part 2: Which keys to pick.
PICK THE ENDPOINTS!! This game practically defines the strategy. The left-most and right-most keys are picked less frequently than the middle keys, and thus the producers put the master key at the end more often than anywhere else. (And yes, that's why this game is won barely more often than random chance would state--it's not that contestants can't price the small prizes, it's that their key choosing behavior is too predictable.) As for which key to pick first, I'd go far right and then far left, but then that was just me .

[BillyGr]

Is there also any pattern to the two prizes (that is, if the first one turns out to be the left numbers, the second one will be the right numbers or the opposite) that occurs more often than it would randomly?

[LiteBulb88]

Money Game

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-price-is-right-ultimate-strategy.html)

Random fact

When Money Game first debuted, it was played on the stage instead of the turntable. You can see a playing here:

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46):

• Actual (seasons 29-46):  244-292 (45.52%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)

(Note: the above assumes there are three reasonable choices for the first two digits and six reasonable choices for the last two digits. That's a fact that has been true in every playing since at least season 40.)

<voice from offstage> You already know what I'm going to say, right?

Yes, yes, yes. Why is the win rate lower than the random chance win rate? I'm getting there.

Thank you.

Of the three choices for the first two digits, which was correct? (seasons 40-47)

• The lowest: 113 playings (52.07%)
• The middle option: 29 playings (13.36%)
• The highest: 75 playings (34.56%)

How often was the number in each position a correct choice to make? (seasons 40-47)

21.66%  3.69% 24.42%
20.28% 17.05% 29.49%
25.81% 28.57% 29.03%

Strategy

While there's nothing completely foolproof in this game, here are some tips:

• Ignore the "digits don't repeat except for the first two" rule. Repeating digits do happen in this game.
• Start by trying to find the last two digits! No one ever does this, but since you get the money for the wrong choices you make, you might as well start with the larger numbers so you make more money if you're wrong.
• Speaking of the last two digits, if you see an "el cheapo" (a number less than 10) on the board, pick it. From seasons 40-46, it was a correct choice 57.89% of the time. (Oddly enough, el cheapo was never even an option in season 47. I don't know if that's a trend or a one season oddity.)
• The number in the top center has been the season number of the show since season 35. (There have been a couple of exceptions, but they've been extremely rare.) The season number hasn't ever been correct more than twice in a season, and more often, it's correct once or not at all. In other words, you should avoid it.
• For the first two numbers of the price of the car, pick the endpoints applies. As you can see, for the three choices you have for the first two numbers, the middle one is correct less than 1 out of every 7 playings. This is why the win rate is lower than the win rate by random chance--contestants like to pick the middle option for the first two digits and they waste a pick in the process.

[tpir04]

I would think, and no doubt the producers know it too, that the contestants want the most money possible, and would pick the highest numbers first. With this in mind, could it be that the back of the car is intentionally not high, so that contestants will naturally fail to select it?

Also, has it ever happened that both the front and back of the car were two of the three options for the front of the car (i.e. $19,721)?

[tpirfan28]

Also, has it ever happened that both the front and back of the car were two of the three options for the front of the car (i.e. $19,721)?

Not directly the same but similar?

[LiteBulb88]

Also, has it ever happened that both the front and back of the car were two of the three options for the front of the car (i.e. $19,721)?

I don't know if this has ever happened since the show went to five digit car prices in Money Game, but I know for sure this hasn't happened since at least season 39.

[LiteBulb88]

More or Less

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_13.html)

Random fact

This was the last pricing game to premiere while Bob Barker was still hosting. You can see the first playing here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 35-46):  25-110 (18.52%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/16 (6.25%)

For each prize, the correct choice was...(seasons 40-47)

First prize:

• More: 55 playings (58.51%)
• Less: 39 playings (41.49%)

Second prize:

• More: 42 playings (48.28%)
• Less: 45 playings (51.72%)

Third prize:

• More: 22 playings (31.88%)
• Less: 47 playings (68.12%)

The car:

• More: 11 playings (23.40%)
• Less: 36 playings (76.60%)

Of course, for the second prize and later, only playings where the contestant got to that prize are counted.

How often was each combination of more and less correct? (seasons 40-47)

Note: the following statistics only count playings where the contestant reached the car.

• 4 More: 0 playings (0%)
• 3 More, 1 Less: 8 playings (18.18%)
• 2 More, 2 Less: 17 playings (38.64%)
• 1 More, 3 Less: 19 playings (43.18%)
• 4 Less: 0 playings (0%)

Strategy

Mostly know the prices. Do note the escalating probabilities of each prize being "less" as the game goes along, so that should be what you lean toward later in the game. Also note it's never been correct that all four prizes had the same correct choice; in fact, from seasons 40-47, it was only true once that the first three prizes had the same correct choice (again, only counting playings the contestant reached the third prize.) Use these facts to help you.