The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide

[LiteBulb88]

Pathfinder

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_21.html)

Random fact

For the second digit of the car, the contestant will always have four choices; for the third digit of the car, the contestant will always have three choices; for the fourth digit of the car, the contestant could have two or three choices; for the last digit of the car, the contestant will always have two choices. I will call the case with three choices for the fourth digit the "harder" path and the case with two choices for the fourth digit the "easier" path. Examples of each:

Harder path    Easier path
 o o o o o      o o o o o
 o o o o o      o o o o o
 o o x o o      o o x o o
 o o x x o      o o x o o
 o o o x x      o o x x x

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 54-170 (24.11%)
• By random chance:
• If the correct path is a "harder" path: 43/288 (14.93%)
• If the correct path is an "easier" path: 13/64 (20.31%)

Car Pricing Stats

Number of times each type of path was used (seasons 40-46)

• Easier path: 14 playings (14.74%) [not more than twice in a season since season 42]
• Harder path: 81 playings (85.26%)

For the second digit, the correct option was...(seasons 40-46)

• Largest possible digit: 27 playings (28.42%)
• 2nd largest possible digit: 16 playings (16.84%)
• 2nd smallest possible digit: 17 playings (17.89%)
• Smallest possible digit: 34 playings (35.79%)
• Unknown because the author missed one and can't find what he missed: 1 playing (1.05%)
  
  
• Directly in front of the contestant: 14 playings (14.74%)
• Directly to the left of the contestant: 25 playings (26.32%)
• Directly to the right of the contestant: 26 playings (27.37%)
• Directly behind the contestant: 30 playings (31.58%)

Small prize Stats

The correct choice was...(seasons 40-46)

• The price on the left (the smaller price): 146 prizes (54.28%)
• The price on the right (the larger price): 123 prizes (45.72%)

If one price ended in 0, 5, or 9, and the other didn't, the correct one was...(seasons 40-46)

• The price that ended in 0, 5, or 9: 24 prizes (51.06%)
• The price that didn't: 23 prizes (48.94%)

Strategy

Car pricing

• Second digit: The second digit is usually the lowest or the highest option ("pick the endpoints") and is rarely the number in front of you ("that'd be too easy.")
• Third digit: Usually, the third digit is NOT on the edge of the board. That would result in an "easier" path being correct instead of the hard path.
• Fourth digit: I don't have anything for this one. Sorry .
• Last digit: As is not unusual in car games, the last digit in Pathfinder is rarely 0, 5, or 9. Since season 42, the last digit hasn't been 0, 5, or 9 more than 4 times in a season and there have been a couple of seasons where there were no cars with any of those last three digits.

Small prizes
Know the prices. There are no trends here that I could find--in particular, they don't try to trap you with a fake price that ends in 0, 5, or 9.

[RatRace10]

There are also several playings where the choices for the last digit will both be 0/5/9, in which case, I believe it's best to prioritize them in reverse order (9>5>0).

[LiteBulb88]

Pay the Rent

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_22.html)

Random fact

When they first debuted this game in season 39, they usually arranged it so there was only one possible solution. However, since season 43, there have been at least two possible solutions to every playing. Thus, most of my stats will be from season 43 onward.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 39-47): 5-75 (6.25%)
• What it would be by random chance: N/180, where N is the number of solutions the game has. For example, if the setup has exactly two solutions, then the probability of winning by random chance would be 2/180 (1.11%).

The game had exactly how many solutions? (seasons 43-47)

• 1: 0 playings (0%)
• 2: 9 playings (23.08%)
• 3: 23 playings (58.97%)
• 4: 2 playings (5.13%)
• 5: 1 playing (2.56%)
• 6: 1 playing (2.56%)
• 7: 0 playings (0%)
• 8: 1 playing (2.56%)
• 9: 1 playings (2.56%)
• 10: 0 playings (0%)
• 11: 1 playings (2.56%)
• 12 or more: 0 playings (0%)

How often was each combination a correct solution? (seasons 43-47)

• (1) < (2) + (3) < (4) + (5) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)
• (1) < (2) + (4) < (3) + (5) < (6): 3 playings (7.69%)
• (1) < (2) + (5) < (3) + (4) < (6): 3 playings (7.69%)
• (1) < (3) + (4) < (2) + (5) < (6): 3 playings (7.69%)
• (2) < (1) + (3) < (4) + (5) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)
• (2) < (1) + (4) < (3) + (5) < (6): 3 playings (7.69%)
• (2) < (1) + (5) < (3) + (4) < (6): 20 playings (51.28%)
• (2) < (3) + (4) < (1) + (5) < (6): 9 playings (23.08%)
• (3) < (1) + (2) < (4) + (5) < (6): 1 playing (2.56%)
• (3) < (1) + (4) < (2) + (5) < (6): 7 playings (17.95%)
• (3) < (1) + (5) < (2) + (4) < (6): 13 playings (33.33%)
• (3) < (2) + (4) < (1) + (5) < (6): 25 playings (64.10%)
• (4) < (1) + (3) < (2) + (5) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)
• (4) < (1) + (5) < (2) + (3) < (6): 4 playings (10.26%)
• (4) < (2) + (3) < (1) + (5) < (6): 32 playings (82.05%)
• (5) < (1) + (3) < (2) + (4) < (6): 1 playing (2.56%)
• (5) < (1) + (4) < (2) + (3) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)
• (5) < (2) + (3) < (1) + (4) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)

(1) means the cheapest item, (2) means the second cheapest item, and so forth. The percentages add up to over 100 because there are multiple solutions that can win the game.

Strategy

Step 1: Decide how much you want to play for
Your strategy changes based on whether you'll be happy with the $10,000 or go for the whole $100,000.  Given the unlikelihood of winning $100,000*, I personally would go for the $10,000, but it's entirely up to you.

*Exception: if you're playing this during a season opening show or Big Money Week, the producers may have set this up to be much easier than usual. Use your judgement to decide if they're doing that or not.

Step 2a: If you're playing for $10,000
If you're playing for $10,000, just put the items from cheapest to most expensive. You'll have wiggle room to make mistakes, and if there's an item you're not sure of at all, just wait until the end and put it in the attic. Even just having an idea of which items are cheaper and which are more expensive should result in an easy $10,000. Just remember to bail out after you reach the $10,000 mark.

Step 2b: If you're playing for $100,000
If you're going for the full $100,000, then do not, I repeat, do NOT, I repeat DO NOT place the cheapest item in the mailbox (the bottom floor). That's a guaranteed loss unless the producers are being really really nice. Instead, the correct way to play this game for $100,000 is to solve this game mentally before you give Drew any selections. You should think top to bottom, not bottom to top. The most expensive item must be placed in the attic. Then you're looking for two products whose total is just below that; mentally place those in the third floor. Then look for two items whose total is just below that; mentally place those in the second floor. Whatever's left must go in the mailbox. That's the way you have to do it--if you just place items on each floor without thinking about the placements on the other floors, you're going to have to get really lucky to win the full $100,000.

[PunchABunchFan]

One Wrong Price

Random fact

It's hard to see on TV, but the stand above the prize the contestant chooses lights up. It's very easy to see in the studio.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 195-219 (47.10%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)

The correct prize to choose was...(seasons 40-46)

• On the left: 56 playings (30.43%)
• In the middle: 75 playings (40.76%)
• On the right: 53 playings (28.80%)

Strategy

On the one hand, this game inverts the "pick the endpoints" rule--the center prize is the correct one to choose more often than either the left or the right prize. One the other hand, it's not so much more often that I'd recommend picking the middle as a general strategy; instead, know the price. But if you're clueless, go for the center prize.

This is another game where knowing that the show currently offers prizes at different thousands levels (a $1K prize, $2K prize, and $3K prize, for example) can really help.

If you see two prices starting with the same digit (For example, $1125 and $1950), the game moves from being a 1/3 guess to a 1/2 guess given how the setups are currently being arranged, since under the current approach, no two prices can have the same starting digit.

[LiteBulb88]

Pick-a-Number

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_23.html)

Random fact

The missing digit has not been either of the last two digits of the prize since season 42. Thus, the statistics for this article will be mostly based on seasons 43-47.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 115-172 (40.07%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)

Which digit was the correct digit to choose? (seasons 43-47)

Overall

• The lowest valued digit: 21 playings (18.75%)
• The middle valued digit: 57 playings (50.89%)
• The highest valued digit: 34 playings (30.36%)

When the thousands digit is missing

• The lowest valued digit: 15 playings (16.13%)
• The middle valued digit: 53 playings (56.99%)
• The highest valued digit: 25 playings (26.88%)

When the hundreds digit is missing

• The lowest valued digit: 6 playings (31.58%)
• The middle valued digit: 4 playings (21.05%)
• The highest valued digit: 9 playings (47.37%)

Strategy

A couple pieces of advice:

• If the thousands digit is missing (meaning the first digit in a 4 digit prize or the second digit in a 5 digit prize), you should lean toward the middle number being correct.
• If the hundreds digit is missing, you should lean toward the lowest or highest digit. But note that's not based on a lot of playings so use that with caution.
• This game has a variation on the "digits don't repeat except for the the first two" that cars usually follow. In this game, digits don't usually repeat except for the last two. Of course, the last two digits are given to you. This means that the missing digit won't usually be the same as the digit to its left or right. I say "usually" because it has happened 1-2 times per season since season 43 that other digits have repeated. But if you're unsure of the missing digit, there's a good chance it's not the same as the digit to its left or right.

[LiteBulb88]

This is another game where knowing that the show currently offers prizes at different thousands levels (a $1K prize, $2K prize, and $3K prize, for example) can really help.

If you see two prices starting with the same digit (For example, $1125 and $1950), the game moves from being a 1/3 guess to a 1/2 guess given how the setups are currently being arranged, since under the current approach, no two prices can have the same starting digit.

Good call! While confirming that fact, I also noticed there hasn't been a prize in One Wrong Price worth less than $1,000 in a number of years, but they still use wrong prices of less than $1,000. I've added both notes to my blog (and credited you, of course.)

[pannoni1]

Pay the Rent

How often was each combination a correct solution? (seasons 43-47)

• (1) < (2) + (3) < (4) + (5) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)
• (1) < (2) + (4) < (3) + (5) < (6): 3 playings (7.69%)
• (1) < (2) + (5) < (3) + (4) < (6): 3 playings (7.69%)
• (1) < (3) + (4) < (2) + (5) < (6): 3 playings (7.69%)
• (2) < (1) + (3) < (4) + (5) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)
• (2) < (1) + (4) < (3) + (5) < (6): 3 playings (7.69%)
• (2) < (1) + (5) < (3) + (4) < (6): 20 playings (51.28%)
• (2) < (3) + (4) < (1) + (5) < (6): 9 playings (23.08%)
• (3) < (1) + (2) < (4) + (5) < (6): 1 playing (2.56%)
• (3) < (1) + (4) < (2) + (5) < (6): 7 playings (17.95%)
• (3) < (1) + (5) < (2) + (4) < (6): 13 playings (33.33%)
• (3) < (2) + (4) < (1) + (5) < (6): 25 playings (64.10%)
• (4) < (1) + (3) < (2) + (5) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)
• (4) < (1) + (5) < (2) + (3) < (6): 4 playings (10.26%)
• (4) < (2) + (3) < (1) + (5) < (6): 32 playings (82.05%)
• (5) < (1) + (3) < (2) + (4) < (6): 1 playing (2.56%)
• (5) < (1) + (4) < (2) + (3) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)
• (5) < (2) + (3) < (1) + (4) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)

(1) means the cheapest item, (2) means the second cheapest item, and so forth. The percentages add up to over 100 because there are multiple solutions that can win the game.

Step 2b: If you're playing for $100,000
If you're going for the full $100,000, then do not, I repeat, do NOT, I repeat DO NOT place the cheapest item in the mailbox (the bottom floor). That's a guaranteed loss unless the producers are being really really nice. Instead, the correct way to play this game for $100,000 is to solve this game mentally before you give Drew any selections. You should think top to bottom, not bottom to top. The most expensive item must be placed in the attic. Then you're looking for two products whose total is just below that; mentally place those in the third floor. Then look for two items whose total is just below that; mentally place those in the second floor. Whatever's left must go in the mailbox. That's the way you have to do it--if you just place items on each floor without thinking about the placements on the other floors, you're going to have to get really lucky to win the full $100,000.

Based on your charts above, it seems that the best method towards $100,000 is to put the cheapest product in the second floor along with the second most expensive product, while picking a "middle" product (3rd or 4th most expensive/cheapest) for the mailbox, leaving one of either the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th cheapest in the first floor. The key is to think of the gap in price between the most expensive and next most expensive products, and then seeing that the difference is almost always large enough between the two to hold the cheapest item. It also implies that the second cheapest item works best in the first floor, since it usually adds enough value between one of the middle products to make it more valuable than the other middle product. This would lead to a majority of wins if you reasonably know the order of prices. Of course, due to most contestants either having no sense of skill, the vast majority play the game like Hole In One, which incidentally seems to have tougher GP setups as of late.

[LiteBulb88]

Pick-a-Pair

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_24.html)

Random fact

When this game first debuted, it used a mini-Ferris wheel to display the products. You can see a playing here from the 1980s nighttime show:

(Jump ahead to the 6:45 mark to see the Pick-A-Pair playing.)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 223-68 (76.63%)
• What it would be by random chance: 2/5 (40%)

Strategy

The easiest way to play this game is to pick either the two most expensive products or the two cheapest products, whichever is easier for you to deduce. But because they never reveal the prices of more than four items, and usually only reveal only two or three of the prices, I cannot draw any conclusions about which pairs are more or less likely to be correct.

[LiteBulb88]

Plinko

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_25.html)

Random fact

For the game's 30th anniversary, the show had an episode where they played Plinko 6 times. Buzzfeed wrote a behind the scenes article about it here:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/adambvary/inside-the-all-plinko-episode-of-the-price-is-right

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 0-564 (0%)
• What it would be by random chance*: 35/958579 (0.0037%)

*Assuming the contestant drops every chip from the center slot

<voice from offstage> WHAT?!?!?!?!?!

Hey, I don't make the rules. According to the show's staff, a game is considered to be won if and only if its main announced prize is won. In Plinko's case, that means the full $50,000 must be won for the game to be won.

Yeah, but...

But what?

Can we consider it to be a win if the contestant hits the center slot at least once? Please?

OK, fine. Here are the stats for that...

Win-loss record if a win means the center slot was hit at least once

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 257-307 (45.57%)
• What it would be by random chance*: 1456/2799 (52.02%)

*Assuming the contestant drops every chip from the center slot

Correct choice for the small prizes... (seasons 40-47)

Last digit of   % of time first   % of time last
wrong price    digit was right   digit was right
      0               2.90             97.10
      1              94.20              5.80
      2              57.89             42.11
      3              71.79             28.21
      4              82.76             17.24
      5               7.03             92.97
      6              73.97             26.03
      7              50.77             49.23
      8              65.79             34.21
      9              18.67             81.33

Strategy

Part 1: Small Prizes
Simply put, if the last digit is 0, 5, or 9, your guess should be that the last digit is the correct one, unless you have strong reason to believe otherwise. If the last digit is 1, 3, 4, 6, or 8, your guess should be that the first digit is the correct one. If it's 2 or 7, you need to know the price. That said, to simplify this, if you want to think of it as "0, 5, or 9 means last, otherwise choose first," I won't object to that.

Part 2: Where to drop the chip from
Drop every chip from the center slot. I repeat, drop every chip from the center slot. One more time:

DROP EVERY CHIP FROM THE CENTER SLOT!!!!

Your expected winnings are highest if you drop the chip from the center slot. This makes sense--the chip is equally likely to bounce left or right. If you drop the chip from the center slot, you need an equal number of left and right bounces to get the $10,000. If you drop the chip from one slot left of the center slot, you need seven bounces to the right and five to the left to get the $10,000. Which do you think is more likely--six bounces to the right and six bounces to the left or seven bounces to the right and five to the left? Yup, the first one. One thing this means is that you should NOT correct for a previous bad bounce. In other words, if you drop your first chip from the center slot and it goes into the left $0, do NOT move one spot to the right for your next drop. You should drop every chip from the center slot no matter what the previous results were!

Let me back this up with some data from a simulation I created where I "released" 10 million chips over each slot.

Where the chip       % of time center       Avg. winnings
was dropped from        slot was hit         of each chip
Left- or right-             3.21               $779.54
most slot   

Second slot from            5.67             $1,009.77
the left or right     

Third slot from            12.11             $1,606.17
the left or right     

Slot adjacent to           19.37             $2,269.45
the center slot   

Center slot                22.58*            $2,559.93

* The theoretical rate of the chip hitting $10,000 if you drop it from the center slot is 924/4096, or 22.56%. So my simulation gets pretty close to that rate.

[LiteBulb88]

Pocket Change

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_27.html)

Random fact

In early playings of this game, the contestant was not given the first number for free. You can see an example here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 33-47): 83-97 (46.11%)
• What it would be by random chance: 239351/581400 (41.17%)

For each digit, how often was it in the car vs. being a fake? (seasons 40-47)

Note: the following table excludes the first digit of the car's price.

          # times       # times in      # times it
Digit     on board      car price       was the fake
  0          24         23 (95.85%)       1 (4.17%)
  1          43         42 (97.67%)       1 (2.33%)
  2          24         21 (87.50%)       3 (12.50%)
  3          60         44 (73.33%)      16 (26.67%)
  4          45         39 (86.67%)       6 (13.33%)
  5          47         20 (42.55%)      27 (57.45%)
  6          45         43 (95.56%)       2 (4.44%)
  7          58         45 (77.59%)      13 (22.41%)
  8          56         45 (80.36%)      11 (19.64%)
  9          53         42 (79.25%)      11 (20.75%)

Strategy

Part 1: Car Pricing
Mostly know the price, but you can sniff out the fake. If you see a 5, there's a better than 50% chance it's a fake--avoid it unless you're certain it belongs. On the other hand, if, after the first digit is revealed, you see a 0, 1, 2, 4, and/or 6 remaining, there's a very good chance it or they will be in the car.

Part 2: Which cards to pick
Unfortunately, they don't reveal the cards that the contestant doesn't pick, so I don't have anything brilliant here. For example, the card that's been revealed to be the $2 card the most often is the top card of the second column...but that's been revealed to be the $2 card a whopping three times in 180 playings. No other spot has been shown to have the card more than twice. So you have nothing to lose by picking the top card of the second column, but don't bet your house on it. Otherwise, I would pick cards at the very top, very left, very bottom, or very right, as most contestants go for cards in the middle.

Part 2b: If you're daring
If you look closely, whenever the contestant picks an envelope, Drew quickly looks at the back of it. I believe there's a mark on the $2 envelope so that if the contestant picks it, Drew can put it last to maximize the drama. So if you're daring, you can try to look at the back of the envelope briefly as you pull the envelope out of its slot and put it back if you don't see a mark; IMHO, this wouldn't be cheating because you're not looking at the actual value. Of course, the staff might not agree, so do this at your own risk...

[SteveGavazzi]

In early playings of this game, the contestant was not given the first number for free.

Actually, the first playing only.

[LiteBulb88]

Thanks! I've updated my blog post (and credited you, of course.)

[LiteBulb88]

Punch a Bunch

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_28.html)

Random fact

When this game first debuted, it was played much differently. You can see an example here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 22-336 (6.15%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/25 (4%)

The correct choice for the small prizes was...(seasons 40-47)

• Higher: 239 prizes (43.61%)
• Lower: 309 prizes (56.39%)

How often was each combination of highers and lowers correct? (seasons 40-47)

• 4 Higher: 0 playings (0%)
• 3 Higher, 1 Lower: 13 playings (9.49%)
• 2 Higher, 2 Lower: 77 playings (56.20%)
• 1 Higher, 3 Lower: 47 playings (34.31%)
• 4 Lower: 0 playings (0%)

Stats for each hole (seasons 40-47)

The way to read the following table is for each hole, the first line is how often it contained $10,000 or more, and the second line is how much money it contained on average. For example, the top left corner reads "0/18"--this means that in 18 punches, it contained $10,000 or more 0 times. The average of all the values that were found in that hole was $1,302. Note this excludes the playing where a dream car was offered.

0/18   0/5    0/11   0/10    0/6   0/7    0/8    0/10   0/5     0/14
$1302  $2200  $1736  $1450   $792  $1121  $1813  $1125  $2350  $1686

 1/5    0/8    1/17   1/13   0/12   0/12   0/9    0/20   0/14    0/4
$2900  $1344  $3059  $1308   $583   $588  $1122  $1183  $2264   $563

 0/3    0/11    0/9   1/10   0/27   0/14   0/11   2/12   0/9     0/0
$1083   $714  $1889  $1950  $1535  $1682  $1114  $3600  $1667    N/A

 0/2    0/11   0/16    0/6   1/8    0/9    0/7     0/9   0/15    1/3
$1375   $632   $916   $767  $4169  $1317  $2571   $761  $1130  $3533

 0/6    1/10   0/6     0/3    0/2   0/5    0/4    1/10    0/8   0/11
$625   $1345  $1958  $1867   $175  $3700   $588  $2475   $650   $782

Bold means $10,000 or more was found there at least once.

Strategy

Part 1: Small prize pricing
Know the prices. They don't make this part hard because they want people to punch the board. Do note that it's never been all four prices are higher or all four prices are lower, so if the first three have the same answer, you know the fourth will be the opposite answer.

Part 2: Which holes to punch?
DON'T PUNCH THE CORNERS!! The producers know that people like to punch the corners so they never place the big money there--you can see none of the corners has had the big cash since season 40. (To be fair, the dream car was in the top right corner; I excluded that playing because the car replaced a $100 slip. I don't know if the producers placed all the slips, then replaced a $100 they had put in the top right corner with the car or if they intentionally placed the car in that spot.) Otherwise, it's really a crapshoot. I personally would go for the 4th through 7th spots on the bottom row, because very few people punch those spots. If you want to try something no one else has, punch the far right spot in the middle row--no one has tried that since season 39 at least.

Part 3: Should you continue?
The naive analysis would simply be to look at the average amount on the board, which is $2,260, and say that if you have more than that you should stop. So that analysis would state that if you get $2,500 or more, stop, $1,000 or less, and you should continue. I'm going to go a little deeper than that, though. Here's another table...

If you   # of picks     Probability of all other picks being
have        left        strictly less than what you have now
$250         1                        10.20%
$250         2                         0.85%
$250         3                         0.054%

$500         1                        30.61%
$500         2                         8.93%
$500         3                         2.47%

$1,000       1                        51.02%
$1,000       2                        25.51%
$1,000       3                        12.48%

$2,500       1                        71.43%
$2,500       2                        50.60%
$2,500       3                        35.52%

$5,000       1                        87.76%
$5,000       2                        76.79%
$5,000       3                        66.98%

$10,000      1                        95.92%
$10,000      2                        91.92%
$10,000      3                        88.01%

Note: this table assumes that the amount you currently have is the one and only punch you've taken so far. It doesn't change things drastically if you remove that assumption.

As you can see, I've highlighted the rows where continuing would mean that you'd lose money more likely than not. Here's that strategy in a simple bullet list:

• If you have $500 or less, continue.
• If you have $1,000, stop if and only if you have exactly 1 pick left.
• If you have $2,500, stop if and only if you have 1 or 2 picks left. If you have 3, continue.
• If you have $5,000 or more, stop. Period. (Yes, I know of the guy in the 1990s who threw away $5,000 when the top prize was $10,000, and then managed to get the $10,000. That's so incredibly unlikely you should not follow suit.)

[LiteBulb88]

Push Over

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_29.html)

Random fact

When Push Over first debuted, it had a red and yellow set instead of the blue and yellow set we have now. Here's the debut playing:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 254-256 (49.80%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/6 (16.67%) for four digit prizes or 1/5 (20%) for five digit prizes. Of course, this assumes all possible prices are equally likely, which is almost always bogus.

Which price was correct? (seasons 40-47)

Four digit prizes

• x x x x x [X X X X] was right: 0 playings (0%)
• x x x x [X X X X] x was right: 36 playings (21.43%)
• x x x [X X X X] x x was right: 51 playings (30.36%)
• x x [X X X X] x x x was right: 38 playings (22.62%)
• x [X X X X] x x x x was right: 38 playings (22.62%)
• [X X X X] x x x x x was right: 5 playings (2.98%)

Five digit prizes

• x x x x [X X X X X] was right: 0 playings (0%)
• x x x [X X X X X] x was right: 23 playings (50%)
• x x [X X X X X] x x was right: 16 playings (34.78%)
• x [X X X X X] x x x was right: 5 playings (10.87%)
• [X X X X X] x x x x was right: 2 playings (4.35%)

Strategy

Mostly know the price, but a couple of things can help you here:

• The correct price is never the first one. You must always push at least one block over.
• Similarly, the very last possible price is rarely correct. Only select that one if you're sure of it.
• There hasn't been a prize worth less than $5,000 in this game since the end of season 41. So any prices less than $5,000 can be immediately thrown out.
• Since season 44, there haven't been more than 3 prizes in a season in this game that ended in a 5 or a 0. So if you're not sure, throw those prices out. However, prizes that end in 9 do come up with reasonable frequency, so don't throw those out.

[LiteBulb88]

Race Game

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_30.html)

Random fact

The show kicked off its 40th season by playing Race Game for four cars. Here's how it went:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 113-97 (53.81%)
• What it would be by random chance: N/24, where N is the number of unique solutions the contestant can try in 45 seconds.

Which combinations were correct? (seasons 40-47)

• 1234: 7 playings (8.05%)
• 1243: 5 playings (5.75%)
• 1324: 0 playings (0%)
• 1342: 2 playings (2.30%)
• 1423: 0 playings (0%)
• 1432: 3 playings (3.45%)
• 2134: 8 playings (9.20%)
• 2143: 5 playings (5.75%)
• 2314: 8 playings (9.20%)
• 2341: 2 playings (2.30%)
• 2413: 3 playings (3.45%)
• 2431: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 3124: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 3142: 0 playings (0%)
• 3214: 3 playings (3.45%)
• 3241: 2 playings (2.30%)
• 3412: 0 playings (0%)
• 3421: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 4123: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 4132: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 4213: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 4231: 2 playings (2.30%)
• 4312: 7 playings (8.05%)
• 4321: 6 playings (6.90%)

The way to read the above table is that "1" means the cheapest prize, "2" means the second cheapest prize, "3" means the second most expensive prize, and "4" means the most expensive prize. So 2143 means the prize on the left was the second cheapest, the second prize from the left was the cheapest, the third prize was the most expensive, and the prize on the far right was the second most expensive.

Strategy

DO NOT LOOK AT THE AUDIENCE!!!

You simply do not have time. Your goal is to get 4 tries in the 45 seconds (no one has had more than 4 attempts since at least season 29.) Looking at the audience wastes valuable time. So this really comes down to a "know the prices" game--unfortunately, there's no mathematically clever way to guarantee a win in just 4 tries. Do try to keep track of your previous guesses--they can help you narrow down what prices go where. Also note that if you get two right, switch two, and you end up with none right, you know the correct answer: switch the two back that you just switched, and then switch the other two. For example, let's say you try 4132 and you get two right. You then switch the first two to get 1432 and have none right. Then you know the correct answer must be 4123--switch the first two back and the switch the last two.