The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide

[Flerbert419]

So place the X's in this order: top left, bottom right, and top right.

The one exception to this is if you are playing for a car. There's a very high percentage of those bottom secret X's on car playings because it's the least covered win square.

[RatRace10]

How often has the X been on the bottom when the prize was not a car?

[Flerbert419]

Of the 9 playings mentioned in the original post where the X was in the bottom square, 6 of them were for cars.

[LiteBulb88]

And of the 13 playings for a car from seasons 40-47, the distribution of the secret X has been twice at the top, five times in the middle, and six times at the bottom. I've updated my blog post and credited you, Flerbert. Thanks for the insight!

[LiteBulb88]

Special note: I fly back to North America tomorrow for another 3 week business trip. Thus, these posts will come much later in the day than they have been.

Shell Game

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_44.html)

Random fact

This game was the host to one of the most infamous (and one of the funniest) moments of cheating on the show:

Win-loss record (seasons 29-47)

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 67-28 (70.53%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)

The correct choice to make for each small prize was...(seasons 40-47)

• Higher: 99 prizes (56.25%)
• Lower: 77 prizes (43.75%)

How often was each combination of highers and lowers correct? (seasons 40-47)

• 4 Higher: 0 playings (0%)
• 3 Higher, 1 Lower: 15 playings (34.09%)
• 2 Higher, 2 Lower: 23 playings (52.27%)
• 1 Higher, 3 Lower: 6 playings (13.64%)
• 4 Lower: 0 playings (0%)

The ball was under which shell? (seasons 40-47)

• Shell #1 (the left-most shell): 8 playings (18.18%)
• Shell #2: 12 playings (27.27%)
• Shell #3: 14 playings (31.82%)
• Shell #4 (the right-most shell): 10 playings (22.73%)

Strategy

Part 1: Small Prizes
Mostly know the prices, though note it's never been the case that all four correct answers were higher nor were all four correct answers ever all lower (at least since season 39.) Also, there's a slight edge toward "higher," so if you're clueless, that can be your guess.

Part 2: Where to place the chips
This game inverts "pick the endpoints"--since season 40, the ball is more often in the center than at one of the edges. It's not a strong trend though, and given the fact that Drew (lightly) shuffles the shells before the game begins, the producers can't fully control where the ball is. So if you want to pick your lucky shells, go right ahead.

[Ton80]

This game was the host to one of the most infamous (and one of the funniest) moments of cheating on the show:

Can we all please agree to stop calling this incident, "cheating"??  The player was obviously a little flustered, and there was clearly no intent to deceive.

/rant

[gamesurf]

Yeah—the moment was funny because she was endearingly, obviously innocent and just confused, and tried to make it right, and Barker proceeded to read her the riot act anyways.

[JT]

Thank you for that Shell Game clip.  Moments like this made Classic Price like no other game show!

[LiteBulb88]

Shopping Spree

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy.html)

Random fact

I have nothing exciting to say about this game, so instead, enjoy this video of the Family Channel game show $hopping $pree from 1997:

Win-loss record (seasons 29-47)

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 117-70 (62.57%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/4 (25%)

Which prize was the cheapest? (seasons 40-47)

• The prize on the far left: 17 playings (20.73%)
• The second prize from the left: 24 playings (29.27%)
• The second prize from the right: 24 playings (29.27%)
• The prize on the far right: 17 playings (20.73%)

Strategy

Don't worry about identifying the cheapest prize right away; instead, just pick the most expensive prize each time. Usually, there's a prize or two that's obviously a good choice to pick. So choose that one or those two and then you can narrow down what you think the cheapest prize is from there, based on how much you have left to spend. If you're completely clueless about the prices, pick the endpoints (i.e. the prize on the far left or the far right), as they have been slightly more likely to not be the cheapest prize. But that's not a strong trend, so only use that as a last resort.

[LiteBulb88]

Side by Side

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_7.html)

Random fact

The US version of Side by Side debuted in 1994. The UK version of The Price is Right had a game called Side by Side many years before that, though it was played much differently than the US version. Here's a playing from 1989:

Win-loss record (seasons 29-47)

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 207-112 (64.89%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)

The correct direction to slide the top pair of numbers was...(seasons 40-47)

• To the left: 90 playings (44.33%)
• To the right: 113 playings (55.67%)

Of the two choices, the correct price was the...(seasons 40-47)

• Cheaper price: 107 playings (52.71%)
• More expensive price: 96 playings (47.29%)

Strategy

Mostly know the price, but if you see 99 as an option, you should strongly lean toward putting that as the first two digits of the prize's price. No prize in this game has ended in -99 since season 45.

[LiteBulb88]

Spelling Bee

(Blog post: https://stoseontpir.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-ultimate-price-is-right-strategy_9.html)

Random fact

This game has been played perfectly before, meaning a contestant got a C, an A, an R, and both cards that had word "car" on them:

Win-loss record (seasons 29-47)

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 79-87 (47.59%)
• What it would be by random chance, based on how many picks you have and assuming you never bail out:
  
  • 2 picks: 19/145 (13.10%)
  • 3 picks: 151/406 (37.19%)
  • 4 picks: 1067/1827 (58.40%)
  • 5 picks: 52363/71253 (73.48%)

Price ranges of each small prize (seasons 40-47)

• First prize: $10-$57
• Second prize: $10-$80
• Third prize: $16-$65

How often each ordering of the small prizes' prices was correct (seasons 40-47)

The table below refers to ordering the small prizes by price. For example, "123" means the first prize was the cheapest, the second prize was the middle price, and the third prize was the most expensive. "231" means the first prize was the middle price, the second prize was the most expensive, and the third prize was the cheapest.

• 123: 3 playings (4.48%)
• 132: 28 playings (41.79%)
• 213: 13 playings (19.40%)
• 231: 14 playings (20.90%)
• 312: 6 playings (8.96%)
• 321: 3 playings (4.48%)

How often each card had each option (seasons 40-47)

Card  # picks  CAR   C   A   R
1         8     1    3   0   4
2         6     0    4   0   2
3         9     0    5   0   4
4        11     0    4   3   4
5         9     1    3   0   5
6         3     0    2   0   1
7        21     0   10  11   0
8         7     1    3   1   2
9        13     0    3   9   1
10        6     1    3   1   1
11       14     4    3   6   1
12       13     0    8   4   1
13        3     0    1   2   0
14        4     0    1   1   2
15       10     1    2   6   1
16        5     0    2   1   2
17        7     0    3   3   1
18        6     2    1   2   1
19       11     1    7   1   2
20        5     0    2   2   1
21        5     1    3   1   0
22        5     0    1   4   0
23       19     1    9   8   1
24        9     3    2   1   3
25        6     0    4   2   0
26        7     0    3   1   3
27        3     0    2   1   0
28        5     1    0   0   4
29        4     1    0   2   1
30        4     1    1   1   1
Note: Bold means a CAR card was found behind that number at least once.

Strategy

Part 1: Small prize pricing
There's not much that's foolproof here, but your guesses should be never be less than $20 for the small prize. They've never used a small prize less than $10 (at least since season 40) and I doubt they ever will. On the high side, they've never used a prize greater than $80, but that's not to to say they can't stretch that some day. Do note that for the ordering of the prices, the "132" combination comes up much more often than any other combination, so if you're not sure, you should assume that the first prize is the cheapest, the middle prize is the most expensive, and the last prize is between those two. That's far from guaranteed, though, so use that only if you're not at all sure of the prices.

Part 2: Which cards to pick

• Do NOT pick #7!! It's the most often picked, but when it's been picked, it's never had the CAR card or even the R.
• Interestingly enough, though, #11 has frequently had the CAR card, as has #24. So those should be your two free picks.
• Beyond that, you should lean towards #s 1-5. That's where the R's are most frequently hidden.

Part 3: Should you bail out?
As I've mentioned in other articles, it depends on how much the car is worth to you. Do you plan to sell it? Then its value is whatever you can sell it for. If you plan to keep it, then it's worth the actual price. If you plan to turn it down, then its value is $0 and you should of course always bail out. Once you've decided that, then here's a chart that tells you mathematically when you should play the game and when you should bail out:

At the start of the game

# of picks   Minimum value of the car
  earned      to you to not bail out
    2               $15,264
    3                $8,067
    4                $6,850
    5                $6,804

If you have one pick left

# of cards already  Letters already    Minimum value of the car
    revealed           revealed        to you to not bail out
       1             Any of them              $14,500
       2            Just one letter           $14,000
       2               C and A                 $3,500
       2          C and R or A and R           $2,154
       3            Just one letter           $13,500
       3               C and A                 $3,375
       3          C and R or A and R           $2,077
       4            Just one letter           $13,000
       4               C and A                 $3,250
       4          C and R or A and R           $2,000

A couple of notes from the tables above:

• It would make the tables too big to include the "intermediate" values (e.g. if you've revealed two cards and have two left, should you keep playing?), but suffice it to say that if you have two or more cards left to reveal, it's never correct to bail out in the middle of the game if you didn't bail out at the beginning, unless you change your mind about how much the car is worth to you.
• If the value of the car to you is at least $15,264, then you should never bail out, period, even if you have just one card left and you need it to be a CAR card.
• Of course, these tables assume the value of each card is $1,000. They have played with higher value cards; if they do that again, you need to multiply the tables above by the amount in thousands of dollars each card is worth. For example, if each card is worth $5,000, multiply the above numbers by 5.

[Punchboard91]

One additional note I would make is the very low frequency of SPs ending in 0 or 5 - since you get all 3 additional cards if you nail just one SP, it would seem that you should never end your guess in 0 or 5 to increase your chances.

[jhc2010]

One additional note I would make is the very low frequency of SPs ending in 0 or 5 - since you get all 3 additional cards if you nail just one SP, it would seem that you should never end your guess in 0 or 5 to increase your chances.

Agreed. In recent years, the producers seem to try hard to prevent a contestant from ever getting a price correct in Spelling Bee. Back in the Bob era,
it appeared to happen much more frequently than today.

[JayC]

One additional note I would make is the very low frequency of SPs ending in 0 or 5 - since you get all 3 additional cards if you nail just one SP, it would seem that you should never end your guess in 0 or 5 to increase your chances.

I don't think it's wise to go for an exact price like that though, the contestant should just be taking it one SP at a time to get the three additional cards. It's a random guess deciding which digit to end your guess with just to try to get an exacta.

[Punchboard91]

But what does it matter? If you think an item is between $20-$40, you’d say $30. But if clearly it does not end with a 0 or 5, you could say either $29 or $31 and cover more possible correct answers.