Not sure why everyone is convinced and assuming Brady's suspension is being upheld at four games, if at all, given the court case pending, not to mention the mounds of evidence that has me still believing he's not only innocent, but the whole deal is held up by the Ideal Gas Law, which Vincent claimed to have ignored during the leaked statements earlier today. Furthermore, the precedent, in either case, as held by the CBA, and prior examples: First, and foremost, the inflation policies. These state that only $25,000 can be fined, and it's a team fine. It is not an individual player's fine. Secondly, furthermore, even if such is the case intentionally, and we assume Brady had wrongdoing, Favre's non-compliance was $500,000; not four games and $2 million. Also that Goodell claimed that he would not get punished for refusing to hand over his cell phone. There's even debate about that, if he's contractually obliged to. The CBA says nothing about these items.
As for the cell phone crap? Yeah, that doesn't look good, but I find it a major red herring to the actual point. See my final sentence of the first paragraph. Because I expect this argument to be used against me: Brady is not a repeat offender, and for that matter, neither are the Patriots. 18 months is the span you have between offenses to be labeled differently, as stated by the CBA, and more commonly recognized in Suh's stomping of Aaron Rodgers' leg.
Last note: Even if this all was intentionally done, which doubts the science, Goodell's hypocritical stances of inadmissability of evidence, etc. this does not impact the integrity of the game, no matter how much he says as much. Salary cap breaches (historically), steroids, head trauma, and domestic violence are much more pressing issues in this league. On the third and fourth points, look no further than the Junior Seau controversy in Canton, and Hardy's suspension, which is now equal to Brady's. In what world should Hardy have equal punishment?
This needed to be said, because this whole process pisses me off. It's an illogical consequence that ignores the science behind it all, covered with smokescreen. Media and NFL delight; more eyeballs, more storylines, and more interest in the product during its offseason when baseball usually reigns supreme. My point of saying all this? Two pronged: Correct common mistakes being made here, especially those assuming Brady is out for the first four games, extremely prematurely, and in light of existing evidence, and the awful work of Exponent. The other reasons? Well, predictions.
As such, here are my divisional breakdowns:
AFC East: Patriots. Brady plays all 16 games, similar to last year's numbers, with a slight uptick overall, but still enough to be a Top 5 QB by the advanced metrics, thanks to a weakened defense, especially its secondary, even if the front seven will be fun to watch. The first game agains the Steelers will score record ratings, and the fifth game of the year, at Indianapolis, will end with many narratives of the Patriots running up the score the next day. They win this fairly easily.
AFC North: Steelers. It feels odd to type this, but the big problem with Pittsburgh will be its defense. They are a great offensive team, having ranked second last year in weighted offensive DVOA.
AFC South: Colts, because there is no other option at this point. I thought they had a very poor offseason, still not addressing their run defense concerns, and added offensive pieces that add little to no upgrade to fix their holes. Hoyer and Mallett don't wow, but the rest of the team does, especially its D-Line. Foster being hurt is no matter, given a RB's little value to a team in today's game; Blue is competent enough.
AFC West: Broncos, and not by a lot. I think Peyton still has enough in him to get to the playoffs, but it won't be much, certainly not enough for a bye. The defense remains average, the ST poor, and the offense very good, excellent if Manning shows his last few months were no more than a fluke.
AFC Wild Cards: While they won't win the division (unless Brady's suspension is held up, even then not sure I'd pick Miami), I think the Dolphins are an absolutely interesting team to watch this season as the 5 seed. How far they go is kind of like Denver: It's all up to Tannehill. Love most of their parts, but I don't think he's quite there. They could be the Ravens a few years ago, given their makeup. Likewise, a similar team in excitement, if likely less so QB-wise, my team for the 6 seed is the Texans.
NFC East: No idea what Chip Kelly was doing; I'd put the Giants above them right now. Murray is a vast overpay, and like the Colts, money better used elsewhere. Running back are fungible. Dallas will be fine, not only for this reason, but their downright awesome offensive line. I see no reason to pick against Dallas right now for this division.
NFC North: Packers; very well rounded team, if unfortunately coached very poorly, which is frequently their downfall. But watch for Minnesota, they're going to be really interesting at the end of this year, and I expect a big burst from them, come 2016, if just barely miss out.
NFC South: I'm torn between Atlanta and New Orleans here, given schedule ease here, but I'll take age 36 Brees over new FAs, new coaching staffs in Atlanta, which can often be a big what-if. Not thinking Brees declines just yet. Carolina is in the close but not quite camp for me this year.
NFC West: Seahawks. Didn't like the deal for Graham, not as a slight on Jimmy Graham, but just how much Max Unger meant for a team that is so run heavy over the middle. It won't show on box scores, but that will be their undoing, not to mention that awful deal they signed Lynch to. Expect the 49ers to have a top 5 pick next draft, Rams offense is too offensively woeful, and the same questions remain on Arizona as last year: Offense. Expecting a 36 year old Palmer to be healthy and effective isn't realistic, and don't see it happened. Best he's ever been by DVOA was 12th in 2007. Don't expect close to that, so yeah, not good.
NFC Wild Cards: Atlanta will hang around with New Orleans all year, but a rough start will put them in second, and good for the 5 seed. Also from the NFC South, no more cap mess for the Panthers, no suspensions from that D? Like them kind of under the radar good. They won't have the schedule strength afforded to the Falcons and Panthers, so that puts them as my 6.
Tough Super Bowl pick, but I think New England over Green Bay. I thought about this for probably 20 minutes, but yeah, this is actually a tough year to pick, much more so than most.
