Aside from the fact that I haven't talked to Kev in over a year now (ask around if you don't believe so), this lineup was with 6 very common games that were picked by a lot of people. The lowest picked game was picked by 6 people! There were no "key" games that showed up and there were no spoilers. It was simply deductive reasoning and quite a bit of luck.
My thought process on picks:
As far as cash games go, it was a lock that there would be 1 cash game on Friday because there were only 2 all week long. The only realistically due GP's were Grand Game and Pay the Rent. Grand Game is more likely to show than Pay the Rent clearly, so it was the one I went with. Astute FPG players would have noted that there had not been a car PG 2nd all week long. This meant that it was very likely that there would be one 2nd. There were some decisions to be made on what car PG's could show. Cover Up was a very popular thought and was similarly about as due as Money Game. This was a toss-up, and thankfully (or not) Money showed up today. There was another toss-up between Master Key and Bonus Game (or possibly Switcheroo as well, but less likely). One is for a car and one is not yes, but they are both SP games and both had not shown up since week 1. This left a decision to be made and once again I went with the "safer" pick of the 50/50 and picked Bonus Game since on average it shows up more often than Master Key. Now, knowing a Car PG was 2nd the real decision was to put Bonus 3rd 4th or 6th. There was also a decision on where to put Grand, either 1st 3rd 4th or 6th. Neither of these games fit well in the 5 slot based on prior history. This left either a quickie or a Car in the 5th slot. As far as quickie consideration is concerned - the choices were clearly between 1RP, Push, ME, DP, and possibly Freeze. 1 Right Price had skipped 2 weeks in a row already and I really did not trust it to suddenly skip 3 for no reason so it was what I went with. That makes Bonus, Grand, Money, and 1RP. The other question was what other game could fit - and I started to look towards games like Danger Price. Danger Price, Swap Meet, 241, Race Game, and Eazy were all viable picks. However, Eazy seemed like the most due so it was the one I went with. As for the final game, I just went with the other common car game that has always been common on a weekly basis throughout the years - TTM. One more pattern I like to follow but is not an exact science is I don't like repeating slots that games appeared in during their very prior playing. In this case, Money Game was 5th, Eazy was 5th, Bonus was 2nd, Grand was 5th, 1RP was 5th, and TTM was 2nd. So clearly as I said before I wanted a Car 2nd. However I did not want TTM to go 2nd in back to back playings (Not an exact rule but I play the statistics). Therefore, Money Game was 2nd. Great. Now, my choice for 5th was pretty locked up here since the only 2 games that happened to not be 5th in their previous playing was Bonus and TTM. Bonus was 5th only once in Season 43 and that was on a very odd Friday lineup. I was much more comfortable slotting it in a more usual slot and slotting TTM 5th. So now the question becomes where does everything else fall. It is clear that Eazy and 1RP were not going to fall in the same half, and likewise Bonus and Grand were not going to be in the same half. Looking back at last seasons trends, Eazy was way more likely to show 1st or 4th than in any other slot. Grand Game was way more likely to show 1st, 3rd, or 6th. 1 Right Price was way more likely to show 1st or 4th. Bonus Game was most likely to show 4th or 6th. Specifically, Bonus was 6th most times in Season 43. So okay, with Bonus 6th what does that leave for everything else? It means that either Eazy or 1RP would be 4th (so the 2nd half would be Eazy-TTM-Bonus or 1RP-TTM-Bonus). At this point it really is just total guesswork, I picked 1RP 4th and it was 4th most often in S43 as well. From there it was just filling in the other 2 to make sense.
Not that I needed to explain anything to anyone, and frankly it's a bit silly how I am treated when I win (or go 6/6) compared to how _any other user (except maybe Kev or Punchboard)_ gets treated on a win (or a 6/6... there have been multiple 6/6's before by other users and every time they were congratulated, not hunted like a witch) but I just felt like sharing some thought process to the best of my recollection. (Sorry I can't remember precisely every little thing I was thinking last afternoon) I even ended up
messing up my CP's because I had no clue what confidence I wanted to give to what game (other than Grand which I knew was my lock of the eon).
Like, it is clear I have given a lot less care to FPG this season until this week. My past performances were poor at best, including my worst performance
ever last week due to me forgetting that spoilers still counted for 1CP at all! But last week I said I would actually try this week, and I did, and I succeeded....but I did too well? Huh?
I mean, really. It's been said previously but it's not like Magic # 1st was nailed - it was 6 obvious games that everyone else picked a lot just not in the same specific order. Even Firey himself had similar-ish lineup, except with different 50/50's (Key instead of Bonus, Vendy instead of Grand, Range instead of 1RP). Not that Vendy or Range were particularly due unlike Grand and 1RP but yeah... look at all the other lineups and how similar they were and how well they did too. Like I said before the games were picked by a lot of people, 5 of them were picked by 10 or more and the last was picked by 6 people.
